Pricing new crop?

[foragefarmer]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

[shtferbrains]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

Do you have your own bees forage?

[Guest]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

I agree 100%
All I’m saying is we have enough risk
Let someone else assume some
These are just facts , reasons , if you will , of why a bumper crop isn’t gonna happen
Getting hailed in the final days before payday and then buying out contracts is not much fun
Even if there isn’t a drought

[Guest]

Case

Focus on the positives, it's better for your mental health.

Alfalfa $2.25 to $2.50/lb. and needs no fertilizer.

and of coarse family!

You spelt coarse wrong

[foragefarmer]

Do you have your own bees forage?

We focus on grasses.

[Sodbuster]

You could sell paper or buy a put option, at least on wheat, oats and canola, barley somewhat covered with corn. Then the only risk is your basis.

[blackpowder]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

[helmsdale]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

25% reduction off current prices would still put us right up there with all-time highs...

25% off of 11.50 wheat, 15 peas, 15 durum, 22ish canola, etc.

Imagine a world where we go back to at best a 25% premium above average?

I dont like the way any of this looks!

[TOM4CWB]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

Bought a whack of Nov22 $800puts... flat priced [too soon] Canola 10bu risk free... so now can fall cash flow our bills.

At $40... the puts are 35% less now... than they were in July21 for Nov21... so to net $865, averaged with the $905/t fall delivery... over $20 for Canola risk free is decent... got 50% coverage. For us Nexera in the drought did best, so happy with that,

Got some extra puts to cross hedge peas... when seeded will look at some more flat pricing...

Was a big learning curve last year... expensive... but the school of hard knocks is usually the best teacher!!!

God Bless... We are doing better than we deserve!!!!

[blackpowder]

25% reduction off current prices would still put us right up there with all-time highs...

25% off of 11.50 wheat, 15 peas, 15 durum, 22ish canola, etc.

Imagine a world where we go back to at best a 25% premium above average?

I dont like the way any of this looks!

Sure but consider the power of %.
When playing poker you need the whole pot on a win to fold a few times and pay the blinds.
I can tell you I'm ecstatic I'm no longer paying %25 of gross rents as of 1 year ago.
And consider the expense curve quickly following the price curve.
Let's hope the new average is at least 25% over the old!