Pricing new crop?

[Sodbuster]

You could sell paper or buy a put option, at least on wheat, oats and canola, barley somewhat covered with corn. Then the only risk is your basis.

[blackpowder]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

[helmsdale]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

25% reduction off current prices would still put us right up there with all-time highs...

25% off of 11.50 wheat, 15 peas, 15 durum, 22ish canola, etc.

Imagine a world where we go back to at best a 25% premium above average?

I dont like the way any of this looks!

[TOM4CWB]

We all painfully aware of Caseih's list.
So, after production risk. How does that list feel if prices of what we do produce fall %25?

Bought a whack of Nov22 $800puts... flat priced [too soon] Canola 10bu risk free... so now can fall cash flow our bills.

At $40... the puts are 35% less now... than they were in July21 for Nov21... so to net $865, averaged with the $905/t fall delivery... over $20 for Canola risk free is decent... got 50% coverage. For us Nexera in the drought did best, so happy with that,

Got some extra puts to cross hedge peas... when seeded will look at some more flat pricing...

Was a big learning curve last year... expensive... but the school of hard knocks is usually the best teacher!!!

God Bless... We are doing better than we deserve!!!!

[blackpowder]

25% reduction off current prices would still put us right up there with all-time highs...

25% off of 11.50 wheat, 15 peas, 15 durum, 22ish canola, etc.

Imagine a world where we go back to at best a 25% premium above average?

I dont like the way any of this looks!

Sure but consider the power of %.
When playing poker you need the whole pot on a win to fold a few times and pay the blinds.
I can tell you I'm ecstatic I'm no longer paying %25 of gross rents as of 1 year ago.
And consider the expense curve quickly following the price curve.
Let's hope the new average is at least 25% over the old!

[Partners]

Message from bunge this morning.
$19.00 canola for Nov and December now full..Dixon and nipawin..

[TechAnalyst]

Bought a whack of Nov22 $800puts... flat priced [too soon] Canola 10bu risk free... so now can fall cash flow our bills.

At $40... the puts are 35% less now... than they were in July21 for Nov21... so to net $865, averaged with the $905/t fall delivery... over $20 for Canola risk free is decent... got 50% coverage. For us Nexera in the drought did best, so happy with that,

Got some extra puts to cross hedge peas... when seeded will look at some more flat pricing...

Was a big learning curve last year... expensive... but the school of hard knocks is usually the best teacher!!!

God Bless... We are doing better than we deserve!!!!

I think that is a fantastic example of using the tools available in real time. Helps reduce the stress throughout the coming season.

I am a bit surprised based on our previous debates but glad you see the value of price insurance.

[TOM4CWB]

I think that is a fantastic example of using the tools available in real time. Helps reduce the stress throughout the coming season.

I am a bit surprised based on our previous debates but glad you see the value of price insurance.

Watching RFD TV… comment that Nov22 Soy $25 Calls traded this morning…

TechA last year was a stinker for volatile market moves…

the lack of volume of prepriced fall grains (22) is really shocking for many grain merchants… frozen up farmers are feeling valid resistance to added volatility and risk 2022 crops are exhibiting .

Being consistent in marketing, is often the best grain marketing plan…. More than a 1 year time span is prudent and needed to avoid making a double set of decisions that both suck capital equality out of our family farms.

Now we need to take a break from all this crazy foaming volatility in so many emotional communications.

Long weekend coming up… often markets shift over long weekends…

Count to 6 breathing in… hold for one two… then exhale counting to six…
Do this ten times to reduce the cortisol in our bodies… every few hours….

Cheers It could rain this spring… God Bless!

[Guest]

And breathe from your diaphram
The 6 seconds gets rid of the CO2
Learned this in free diving lessons in Turks
The trick is to breathe out for more seconds than in