Inflation’s Collapse

[wheatking16]

Watch for a local top in the USDCAD and DXY either today or Monday.

A bounce in the stock market and a pullback in the USDCAD and DXY next week.

[TASFarms]

Major weakness in deferred crude oil contracts . . . Sept 23 contract just broke below $74 per barrel. Deflationary pressures now lighting-up-the-scoreboard . . . .

States might luck out. Don’t they have to start filling the federal reserve after October?

[TOM4CWB]

States might luck out. Don’t they have to start filling the federal reserve after October?

Apparently the US are waiting to fill the strategic oil reserves until next spring…

Cheers

[jazz]

errol at a Fed fund rate of approx 5-6%, the entire economy goes insolvent.

In 6 months they will be starting QE again and we will have to live with the return of even higher inflation. 1970s type numbers.

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, always has been and the money printing is the culprit. Until budgets and printing are reigned in and taxes lowered to increase productivity, deflation not in the cards at all.

Do you see any govts reigning in spending. The EU is in the process of bailing out numerous companies. Other govts are sending inflation cheques to citizens. Trudeau spent close to 20B just in the past few months. Biden has 3 or 4T under his belt in the past 2 yrs.

[shtferbrains]

Apparently the US are waiting to fill the strategic oil reserves until next spring…

Cheers

Won't be Biden's problem.

[furrowtickler]

Won't be Biden's problem.

Actually sad they still keep him in there
Should be elderly abuse , he is completely out of his element now .

[wheatking16]

I tend to agree with Errol regarding deflationary pressures. The difficulty of these prognostications lie in when these shifts happen and the lack of a universally accepted metric or benchmark.

My thesis and that of others is that this inflation is primarily driven by supply chain disruptions.

Once these begin to correct, we should experience a price reduction to coincide with the decrease in demand.

The rise in interest rates will reduce demand further, which will not occur in lock-step with the supply decreases.

Cracks in the natural gas and oil charts show, which, if confirmed, will reduce energy costs.

My fertilizer charts are showing signs of weakness that growers will enjoy if it plays out. There is hope...

My grain charts look prime for further downside.

Oilseeds also.

Oil and soybean oil track each other remarkably well, so if Oil moves lower......

What does that mean for soybeans?

Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

Will that result in lower-cost goods?

Maybe.

Few understand inflation, with the common narrative of the causes and solutions too simplistic to be applicable.

[TOM4CWB]

I tend to agree with Errol regarding deflationary pressures. The difficulty of these prognostications lie in when these shifts happen and the lack of a universally accepted metric or benchmark.

My thesis and that of others is that this inflation is primarily driven by supply chain disruptions.

Once these begin to correct, we should experience a price reduction to coincide with the decrease in demand.

The rise in interest rates will reduce demand further, which will not occur in lock-step with the supply decreases.

Cracks in the natural gas and oil charts show, which, if confirmed, will reduce energy costs.

My fertilizer charts are showing signs of weakness that growers will enjoy if it plays out. There is hope...

My grain charts look prime for further downside.

Oilseeds also.

Oil and soybean oil track each other remarkably well, so if Oil moves lower......

What does that mean for soybeans?

Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

Will that result in lower-cost goods?

Maybe.

Few understand inflation, with the common narrative of the causes and solutions too simplistic to be applicable.

I agree Wheatking… unless Putin and Russia dive off the deep end into nuclear war… there is easily sufficient grain to supply demand for the upcoming year.

I doubt that there is more than a 5% probably of catastrophic war… and it is unlikely that more than a 15% probably of disruptive grain distribution disruptions…

Therefore with a broad global recession virtually assured 90%…. Localized energy shortages are partially being offset by currency realignments…

The ‘new green deal’ decarbonization agenda may have been partially delayed yet remains intact to a large degree…

AI and semiconductor agendas maintaining exponential growth of semiconductor distribution and integration remains unchallenged.

Humanity is in general on track for civilization to charge into the increasing dehumanization by decarbonization and depopulation objectives UN, WEF, and Asian philosophy are intent on pursuing.

It is Climate Week globally this week… happy decarbonization!

Cheers

[biglentil]

I agree Wheatking… unless Putin and Russia dive off the deep end into nuclear war… there is easily sufficient grain to supply demand for the upcoming year.

I doubt that there is more than a 5% probably of catastrophic war… and it is unlikely that more than a 15% probably of disruptive grain distribution disruptions…

Therefore with a broad global recession virtually assured 90%…. Localized energy shortages are partially being offset by currency realignments…

The ‘new green deal’ decarbonization agenda may have been partially delayed yet remains intact to a large degree…

AI and semiconductor agendas maintaining exponential growth of semiconductor distribution and integration remains unchallenged.

Humanity is in general on track for civilization to charge into the increasing dehumanization by decarbonization and depopulation objectives UN, WEF, and Asian philosophy are intent on pursuing.

It is Climate Week globally this week… happy decarbonization!

Cheers

Wishful thinking the Davos crowd already announced Agenda 2030 was to be expedited.
I recommend reading this recent wef article on a 'Carbon' approach in which they admit Covid 19 was test in compliance. Pay attention to the buzzwords 'sustainibility' 'inclusitivity' 'My Carbon' 'Stakeholders'.

"1. COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility – A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world. There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of individual social responsibility."

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/my-carbon-an-approach-for-inclusive-and-sustainable-cities/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Robotics will allow manufacturing will continue to move to secure, low energy-cost, regions, think North America.

Will that result in lower-cost goods?

Maybe.

But first we have to get from a to b.
No doubt it is now cheaper (and will continue to be)to make a widget in North America using cheap North American energy, and automation.
And it won't take very much labor to operate the manufacturing facilities once they are built. But the infrastructure does not exist at this point , it will take a lot of Labor and inputs and energy to repatriate all of these industries. All of which are already in short supply, especially the skilled labor. And that will be very inflationary for many years to come, before we can reap the benefits which will inevitably be deflationary.
Unless of course we just completely crash the economy and credit markets by trying to fight the inevitable and absolutely necessary inflation which will accompany the reshoring of industries.