Inflation’s Collapse

[bucket]

I think a little different than others.

Before you can claim inflation is easing or deflation is happening, we have to get back to where we were before it all started.

Compared to wages , real house prices, fuel prices etc.

As an example fuel is higher now than when oil was $140 a barrel.

at one point they should quit saying inflation and use the real term....gouging.

[shtferbrains]

On the back of a napkin calculation it takes about the same amount of gold to buy a fancy pick up today as it did in 1974.

Is that gold standard?

Just need the gold?
Cash in the bank not so much?

[errolanderson]

It’s been reported, Russia’s central bank will not pay interest on its bonds (default). Russia is effectively bankrupt after a few days of war.

This will take years of financial pain to repair . . . .

[Rareearth]

Why is there a war?
- every one seems to ignor this

Same as every other war, oil or resources

- yes used to be part of USSR

- Putin wants to control Europe, extracting ( similar to major canola processors exporters) maxium margins plus 10% for Russia for oil and gas infrastructure and mining infrastructure and pipelines that lead to NATO European countries

The USA, Nato etc are letting Putin take Ukraine, so he will.
At a minimum he will squeeze Ukraine economically- throw in all the corruption Europe will be held hostage

Unbelievable planes haven't flown over the tanks lines up on the road ways to drop a few bombs or launch a few missles ( seems a little Treaudo (skippy) esk)

Also read that ave Ukraine income 8 or 900 month, vs India at about 1,100. I would not have guessed that

[sumdumguy]

That is precisely what I was thinking. When you see the pictures of these tanks nicely lined up barely crawling for 40 km, I’ve been wondering why the Ukrainians are sitting in Kyiv waiting for them and not attacking the tanks enroute. They said on the radio that a molotov cocktail can take out a tank. Planes with bombs could also destroy them. You would think that with the slow movement, the tanks are sitting ducks. I don’t know a thing about wartime maneuvers but just hoping the Uks can turn Putin around.

[Rareearth]

Ukraine also very corrupt

Putin buys off Ukraine prime minister, then re instates him? Or others?

[Old Cowzilla]

Doesn't seem to be any shortage of people paying 30- 40 % more than 2 yrs ago for toys, trucks,cars ,houses and land. Only shortage of poor salesmen, rest getting very rich making fools part with the money.

[shtferbrains]

Blew through the $100 oil that was considered a stretch.

Commodities all rocketing.

BOC up 1/4%. First increase since 2018.

Average Joe incomes/wages not much movement yet. That has to change.
Can't keep living the same.

Government spent all the money and are killing our oil and gas exports.

How much less will you get per you buck?

[furrowtickler]

Doesn't seem to be any shortage of people paying 30- 40 % more than 2 yrs ago for toys, trucks,cars ,houses and land. Only shortage of poor salesmen, rest getting very rich making fools part with the money.

Very true
People are buying overinflated crap like never before , most on credit and loans meanwhile they won’t be able to afford mortgages, fuel or even food for the families shortly . Crazy world

[errolanderson]

Mass credit defaults may have-a-way of correcting inflationary pressures without any help from central bankers. Incoming real estate setback will be an awakening . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Mass credit defaults may have-a-way of correcting inflationary pressures without any help from central bankers. Incoming real estate setback will be an awakening . . . .

Real estate is a fairly broad term.
Are you forecasting this across all sectors, or just housing, just commercial/industrial? What about farmland?
Demand destruction aside, recent events are bullish commodities for more than a short term, I tended to think real estate will be a real case of The haves and have nots for the next few years.

[errolanderson]

Capital destruction in Russian equities this week is the most amazing market collapse I’ve seen in my career.