Inflation’s Collapse

[shtferbrains]

Is that $185 oil a hot tip?
Go all in with margin account?
Be rich by spring!

[jazz]

Is that $185 oil a hot tip?
Go all in with margin account?
Be rich by spring!

Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin.

[TOM4CWB]

jazz;"Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin."

Bought a whack of $11.20 Min Sept 22 puts; sold first yellow peas for off combine fall delivery... put on Nov22 Put-$1060[bought]-$950[sold] Canola spread to lock in 2022 margins.https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ii...181013848.html

The US Fed is 'confused'... it doesn't appear to have an inflation anchor 'target' any longer... as the global economy slides towards rescission, hang on as Russia Ruble shoots up... and they cash in... Chaos as central banks pretend to tred water in ; 'stormy hurricane'

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Institute of International Finance slashed its 2022 growth outlook for global output in half, citing the economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's response to a COVID-19 wave and tighter monetary policy in the United States.

The IIF also expects capital flows to emerging markets to shrink by 42% from last year.

Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.

"Weakness is broad-based and leaves little margin for error," IIF economists wrote in a report. "Global recession risk is elevated. In this context, we expect non-resident flows to emerging markets to slow significantly."

The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3% from 4.6%, with the G3 - the United States, the euro area and Japan - growing at a 1.9% rate this year. They expect China's growth to decelerate to 3.5% from 5.1% in the previous estimate.

"The Omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows," the IIF said.

Growth in the euro area was previously cut to 1% from 3%, mostly on the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. "Importantly, because the statistical carryover from 2021 into this year is 1.9 percentage points, this is a recession forecast that anticipates falling GDP in the second half of the year."

Growth in Latin America is forecast slightly faster at 2% on the back of high commodity prices, while the IIF expects "a certain degree of resilience" from Middle East and North African oil exporters."

If you think anyone can predict what will happen over the next 6 months...

June July August Western half of North America... hot and dry I saw this morning.

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!!!

[TOM4CWB]

jazz;"Things have a tendency to run exponentially and then dump hard. I worry about crop prices as well. I just put in a crop with the max input costs and now 4 months away from the bin."

Bought a whack of $11.20 Min Sept 22 puts; sold first yellow peas for off combine fall delivery... put on Nov22 Put-$1060[bought]-$950[sold] Canola spread to lock in 2022 margins.https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ii...181013848.html

The US Fed is 'confused'... it doesn't appear to have an inflation anchor 'target' any longer... as the global economy slides towards rescission, hang on as Russia Ruble shoots up... and they cash in... Chaos as central banks pretend to tred water in ; 'stormy hurricane'

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Institute of International Finance slashed its 2022 growth outlook for global output in half, citing the economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's response to a COVID-19 wave and tighter monetary policy in the United States.

The IIF also expects capital flows to emerging markets to shrink by 42% from last year.

Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.

"Weakness is broad-based and leaves little margin for error," IIF economists wrote in a report. "Global recession risk is elevated. In this context, we expect non-resident flows to emerging markets to slow significantly."

The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3% from 4.6%, with the G3 - the United States, the euro area and Japan - growing at a 1.9% rate this year. They expect China's growth to decelerate to 3.5% from 5.1% in the previous estimate.

"The Omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows," the IIF said.

Growth in the euro area was previously cut to 1% from 3%, mostly on the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. "Importantly, because the statistical carryover from 2021 into this year is 1.9 percentage points, this is a recession forecast that anticipates falling GDP in the second half of the year."

Growth in Latin America is forecast slightly faster at 2% on the back of high commodity prices, while the IIF expects "a certain degree of resilience" from Middle East and North African oil exporters."

If you think anyone can predict what will happen over the next 6 months...

June July August Western half of North America... hot and dry I saw this morning.

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!!!!

"FOOD SCARCITY A RISK

Export bans of agricultural goods in Russia and India, as well as the expected interruption to the sowing and harvesting in Ukraine, were cited as the IIF cautioned there was a wide risk of global food insecurity, with the Middle East and Africa likely the hardest hit.

"Asian countries are somewhat less exposed to the food price shock stemming from the Ukraine war due to more rice-focused diets, as rice prices have remained relatively subdued in recent years and appear overall less affected by global food price inflation," the IIF said. ... ..."

P.S. 5% of Gross on Risk Management now committed or spent on the 2022 budget. Too much? Time will tell!!!!

[errolanderson]

U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

Cash again king . . . .

[sumdumguy]

Errol, dear Errol, where did you get your Economics Degree?

[TOM4CWB]

U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

Cash again king . . . .

If an 'Omega Ridge' builds into the US Row Crop and midwest... with a hot, dry summer... NG will go through the roof in the US... power brown outs...

This could get ugly.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=culhr1GNinA&pp=QAFIAQ%3D%3D

Weather forecast...

[TOM4CWB]

U.S. and Cdn imports are now in-a-skid . . . . Retailers becoming swamped with inventory that must be discounted out. Big price discounts ahead. Inflation will soon be in the 'rear view mirror' especially once oil prices break after driving season. Freight markets also coming under pressure . . . .

Cash again king . . . .

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-07/target-s-inflation-and-inventory-problems-are-hitting-at-the-worst-time?utm_campaign=bn&utm_medium=distro&utm_source=yahooUS

Bloomberg
Opinion Andrea Felsted
Target's Oversupply Problem Should Scare All Retailers
The retailer is known as one of America’s best-run stores. But lately it keeps missing the mark on what consumers want.
June 7, 2022, 7:10 AM MDTUpdated onJune 7, 2022, 8:07 AM MDT
Listen to this article
2:55
Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry.

Target Corp. is off target again.

"Just three weeks after a profit warning that saw its shares plunge the most since 1987, the big-box operator has cut its outlook again, as it seeks to address a glut of inventory amid a rapid shift away from pandemic purchasing patterns."

[furrowtickler]

If you had enough rain ☔️Or soil moisture to this point to get a crop , just be counting your lucky stars as difficult as it was for some
Zero soil moisture means zero crop …. Period

Even feed quality will pay well at prices if they hold , zero equals zero
80% seeded at big bushels regardless of grade is still 80% better than zero
Ya there is crop insurance but that don’t even come close to the pillaging of inputs this year
Hope the best for everyone, very few fortunate areas in western Canada , like less than 10% at best

[furrowtickler]

By the way how did that “billon dollar rain” turn out for yous in Manitoba last year that the premier was bragging about it this time last year ?

Zero rain , zero soil moisture is zero crop
People have short memory , very short

[furrowtickler]

Also zeros establishment means zero crop insurance….. something to think about
Canola crop being lost everyday
Shipped out nearly 80 bags today of canola for reseed … it’s June 10 tomorrow

[jazz]

CPI in US hit 8.6%.

Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now.

[errolanderson]

CPI in US hit 8.6%.

Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now.

already in-progress . . . .

[Guest]

CPI in US hit 8.6%.

Only way inflation stops errol is with a major recession. Its the only tool now.

anyone that believes its only at 8.6% needs a kick in the head
gas has gone up at least 40%
most of the packaged foods have gone up and shrunk in size
heating fuel way up
almost every farm input has doubled or tripled in price

[Rareearth]

What get me is the labour shortages.

Every business in saskatoon is looking, advertising, hiring. Every where i look the usa, china, europe there are labour and manufacturing labour shortages.
Did global population growth stop?
Or demographics where every one globally retired, died, etc?

Every one needs labour, businesses must pay and compete to buy labour or close shop. Wages will go higher, housing will still be in demand, quality of life goes up, debt goes up, inflation will stay up, slowing very slowly.

It aint over yet