Inflation’s Collapse

[Guest]

While the meme speaks of Albertans, it seems to perfectly define many Agrivillers views of pricing, inflation, and of course Trudeau
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Credit Ruben Lipszyc twitter

Universal basic income would be way better , right ?

[jazz]

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon caused by govt printing, has little to do with oil.

In 2008 oil hit $150 a bbl and the price of pickup trucks didnt move, nor did interest rates.

I appreciate dmls attempt to meme though.

[helmsdale]

How's everyone feeling about their nat gas and crude stocks today?

Couple thoughts... European Nat Gas still seems to be heading higher, but we're largely unable to capitalize on that at the moment. Anything I've read says LNG export facilities are tapped out, and one of the largest export facilities is offline (Texas based Freeport) since there was an explosion on site. Nat gas in continental NA has tumbled ever since as we seem by and large incapable of exporting our surplus under the given circumstances. Freeport is expected to back online sometime late 2022.

As far as oil is concerned, the going concern as of late is decreased demand with the macro environment "going to shit". That is likely true, but it's not like we have alot of buffer capacity right now to soak up any sort of supply side shock that might show up. Nobody is investing anymore, and SPR's are being drawn down all over the world. Leaves us awfully vulnerable to another black-swan event.

[workboots]

I would say that a “get to cash” psychology is ruling over this market and this is the case regardless of fundamentals. It’s irrational behaviour when it’s across all asset classes like this, but if you don’t respect market sentiment you might have to hold through some tough times. I appreciate Toms comment in another thread regarding the Capture of some of this sell off with purchase of crude oil calls to hedge fuel costs. He who shrewd enough to pick an oversold bottom I don’t know. Here is a clip of a bunch of central bankers rattling off the latest thoughts on how to navigate policy through this inflationary environment.

https://youtu.be/vgZHChVQXJc

[jazz]

For errol, there is no scenario where they let deflation take hold. They will print until it implodes. And buy votes at the same time. The MMT clowns are in full control.

[errolanderson]

For errol, there is no scenario where they let deflation take hold. They will print until it implodes. And buy votes at the same time. The MMT clowns are in full control.

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Too late, Fed powerless, already happenin Jazz. Let the fallout begin . . . .

[errolanderson]

Retails now swamped with inventory. Supply chain crisis appears over. Baltic dry index (ocean freight)
sliding. Retailers now desperate to move inventory as consumers slow spending. DISCOUNTS, DISCOUNTS.

Commodities, energies, precious metals, industrials all in bear country. Say inflation?

[ajl]

As expected pump prices have dropped locally quite a bit. Regular down from 1.89 to 1.69 and pump diesel fell by even more than that. There is something known as market forces which governments maybe powerless against. In that case party like it is 1930 again.

[Old Cowzilla]

Got dinged $125 for a box of 7 inch lacing at local store . Pretty sure I was only paying half that 2 years ago and pretty sure the price won't come down after poop hits the fan. But I guess the days of $50 hay bales are long gone too What's it cost to get a JD shop to relace a belt these days ?

[dmlfarmer]

Retails now swamped with inventory. Supply chain crisis appears over. Baltic dry index (ocean freight)
sliding. Retailers now desperate to move inventory as consumers slow spending. DISCOUNTS, DISCOUNTS.

Commodities, energies, precious metals, industrials all in bear country. Say inflation?

So Errol, was the last year of price hikes actually inflation or was pricing reflecting shortages caused by multiple factors and profiteering by all sectors of the value chain in a distorted marketplace?

[errolanderson]

So Errol, was the last year of price hikes actually inflation or was pricing reflecting shortages caused by multiple factors and profiteering by all sectors of the value chain in a distorted marketplace?

Gouging is not inflation . . . .

[jazz]

CPI is tomorrow errol, we will see who is right.

Energy is no where near a bear market. Inflation will move to the labour market next and it will be hard to get it out of there with out major pain.

The strong dollar is contributing to what you are seeing in commodities.

[errolanderson]

CPI is tomorrow errol, we will see who is right.

Energy is no where near a bear market. Inflation will move to the labour market next and it will be hard to get it out of there with out major pain.

The strong dollar is contributing to what you are seeing in commodities.

jazz . . . government data is 3 months behind reality and well behind-the-curve. Bank of Canada rate hike tomorrow is irresponsible.

[shtferbrains]

Inflation is rampart in wages.

Trying to find a wage incentive that attracts some interest to fill short staffing.

It's across all industries.

Oilfield can't pay enough to get people back. $78 hrs?

RCMP at 42% of required recruiting.

Tire shops in town turned over majority of staff. Mechanic's and techs short everywhere.

All retail can barely keep the doors open.

3 jobs for anyone who wants to work long hrs.
Ask any immigrant you see how many jobs they have.

[jazz]

jazz . . . government data is 3 months behind reality and well behind-the-curve. Bank of Canada rate hike tomorrow is irresponsible.

When the CBs and govt start reducing balance sheets, I will believe that story. But that hasnt happened. Trudeau has personally increased Canadas debt by at least 10B this past month.

Inflation will moderate into the 6% range in the next couple months after another fed .75% increase this month, but the damage to the economy and stock market will be apparent by then, and they they will start printing all over again. So will the US govt in the fall. So will the ECB and BOJ etc.

Ask any immigrant you see how many jobs they have.

Canada lost jobs last month while all the job gains in the US were people getting 2nd jobs to pay their bills.