Pre pricing 2022 crop

[Guest]

sorry for a marketing thread
we haven't done any yet
we normally do about 15% of our bushels by volume (oats barley mostly)
haven't done any yet , what are others doing ?
local elevator guy said next to nothing done
would do some if an act of god appeared , even if it costs 10-15%
i know there are options, puts etc, but i am a pisspoor marketer , just want simple

[Hamloc]

sorry for a marketing thread
we haven't done any yet
we normally do about 15% of our bushels by volume (oats barley mostly)
haven't done any yet , what are others doing ?
local elevator guy said next to nothing done
would do some if an act of god appeared , even if it costs 10-15%

Definitely a conundrum. I don’t usually do more than 20% based on historical yields. What was weird last year is I didn’t pre book any CPS which I normally do. Yield sucked but it worked out on price. I can’t see that happening 2 years in a row but certainly is dry with very little snow here. Haven’t done any yet either.

[tubs]

have not done any down side risk is limited and is very dry around here. To much geopolitical risk as well.Wondering also what would happen if our government would put in price controls of somekind way to many unknowns for me at this time.

[Taiga]

Too much turmoil this year I think, I am going to wait. After the new bins I put up last year (which Never saw a kernel) I have storage for 100%. From the emails and texts I am getting it looks like they are going after the low hanging fruit.

[TASFarms]

South America is still cutting production numbers.
China buying lots of new crop beans
What is going to come out of the BlackSea?

$100 swing happened in canola twice in the last week.

[FarmJunkie]

Only did a couple loads of Canola just under 20. Too dry here to risk much more. Will get seed in the ground before anymore gets done.

[furrowtickler]

Will do some but not our normal 20% .
Got burned last year when that 20% turned into 80% .

[Rareearth]

- Sell the futures (short them)
- saves you massive basis (buy out of the money calls as insurance)
- deliver when you want to who ever you want
- be ready to deposit $ to margin account if futures continue to run higher
- could buy out of the money calls to protect your hedge/position

- this maximizes your returns vs buying puts ( floor price is futures price )

I haven’t checked the current futures or options prices yet


My short version how to, ( talk is cheap).

[wheatking16]

- Sell the futures (short them)
- saves you massive basis (buy out of the money calls as insurance)
- deliver when you want to who ever you want
- be ready to deposit $ to margin account if futures continue to run higher
- could buy out of the money calls to protect your hedge/position

- this maximizes your returns vs buying puts ( floor price is futures price )

I haven’t checked the current futures or options prices yet


My short version how to, ( talk is cheap).

Do I understand correctly that you suggest shorting the futures?

[Rareearth]

Yes, not May

Nov 22. or Jan 23. ( cover with close but out of the money calls) be ready to supplement account(margin calls)

Basis levels $2 bushel plus crush margins fffffffffffffff......

Do you think price discovery and futures, delivery threats are functional?
(Hint - no, or we wouldn't have $2.00 bushel basis levels when futures for closest delivery month are highest + crush $2.00 bushel = $4.00 bushel the crushers are making ffffffffffff.....

More than a lot of farmers make to grow the crop and take all cash flow risks, weather risks etc
Then extract max margins on delivery shortfalls fffffffffff.......

Ps i subscribe, thank you for your insights