Pre pricing 2022 crop

[TOM4CWB]

Yes, not May

Nov 22. or Jan 23. ( cover with close but out of the money calls) be ready to supplement account(margin calls)

Basis levels $2 bushel plus crush margins fffffffffffffff......

Do you think price discovery and futures, delivery threats are functional?
(Hint - no, or we wouldn't have $2.00 bushel basis levels when futures for closest delivery month are highest + crush $2.00 bushel = $4.00 bushel the crushers are making ffffffffffff.....

More than a lot of farmers make to grow the crop and take all cash flow risks, weather risks etc
Then extract max margins on delivery shortfalls fffffffffff.......

Ps i subscribe, thank you for your insights

Can buy a $800/t Nov22 put for $30/t... nice base with low insurance cost...4% isn't bad at all.

Now for Nov23... that is a bear of a different growl... as no options available...

[jdg364]

Not sure if you mean selling 2022 crop or 2023 crop? We’ve done some 2022 crop for cash flow and bin space, hopefully we will still need our Bagger but doubtful.

Nothing for 2023 but Looking at the nov23, futures 792 - basis(25)= $17.40 which is a decent place to start.

I’m to the age where I don’t like buying green bananas let alone pricing two crop years out.

[Rareearth]

Current futures Nov 22 canola $886 / 44.09= $20.09 bushel
- thats the best true floor price a farmer can lock in for new crop nov.

800 puts = $30 (put cost) + $86 ( current futures 886 - put strike 800) = futures need to drop $116 dollars ton to break even from current futures price

800-116 = $684 / 44.09 = $15.51

$20.09 - $15.51 = difference of $ 4.58 bushel from current futures price is not cheap

Not sure if my logic is right, just trying to figuring out risks/opportunities my self



25 dollar nov basis is reasonable( to good),
- even with a delivery contract ,delivery timing often is during the nicest harvest weather ( when harvesting wheat etc)
- terminal is full
- not taking canola
- no train ( i predict this to be a major issue this coming year - trains prioritizing oil to USA)
- price spot is much higher than contract price 😊

[Rareearth]

Yes your right, but current futures are at $886

So 886 - 800 =86. Your still out of the money $86 dollars

[Guest]

sorry all , i was talking about the 2022 crop , not 2023
i fixed it on title
wonder what chuck is doing , he hasn't replied , lol

[dalek]

Sold a bit of ‘22 SRW today, $12 was just a nice round number

[fjlip]

sorry all , i was talking about the 2022 crop , not 2023
i fixed it on title
wonder what chuck is doing , he hasn't replied , lol

Reading the Pfizer data DUMP! Crying about his liver DNA

[Taiga]

9 pages of single spaced small font adverse reactions including permanent chromosomal changes to your DNA (it’s all in the report) takes time to get through and process.

[blackpowder]

2022 crop makes my head hurt.
Hopefully I don't freeze completely and do nothing.
Normally I presell heavily.
This year when I do get the courage, I will be spending money on protection after ~20 - 30 bu/ac.
Basis will be awful and easy money if you plan it right .
Big risk for me is inaction or no plan.
Although 5-10 b is not a bad idea at these prices, I read the news and stall out. I need to shake off winter brain fog and make some calls this week.
Normally I don't care for highest price bragging rights but last year stung a little. And $2 price swings are still real money.
Selling commodities a psychology game in this volatility.

I'm sure CC sells a little every day of the year once production binned. Maybe not a bad idea.
Likely why he never adds to a marketing thread. Doesn't want to share. Our gain perhaps as he adds nothing but a pro cwb jab with no intelligent substance.