Cattle Board Fallout

[errolanderson]

Live and feeder cattle have been in a dive of-late. Stock market fallout, weakening box beef prices and lack of U.S. buyer competition contributing to fed weakness. Alberta/Nebraska cash basis remains historically weak. Cattle feeding losses remain huge on skyrocketing feed costs while western carcass weights that have gotten too heavy in Ab and Sk. Feeder cattle futures getting swept under-the-carpet by the corn price rally.

Cow prices are the bright spot. D1/D2 bids could push above 90 cents/lb, a 20 cent/lb recovery this winter. Consumer budgets are squeezed due to surging fuel costs. Hamburger Helper sales may be strong . . . .

[burnt]

Lost the first calf to hit the snow a few weeks ago, the momma went to market. Sad day, she was one of my best.

However, she had given me 3 or 4 calves since she arrived here and brought within 200 bucks of what she cost me at the auction so I've done far worse.

Lots of grass here so last year's calves can stay for the summer. Not that that always works out either...

[bucket]

Lost the first calf to hit the snow a few weeks ago, the momma went to market. Sad day, she was one of my best.

However, she had given me 3 or 4 calves since she arrived here and brought within 200 bucks of what she cost me at the auction so I've done far worse.

Lots of grass here so last year's calves can stay for the summer. Not that that always works out either...

Herd numbers down, pastures invisible , more culls to come this spring. The slaughter is pressured with the cow numbers and the calf crop in early from last year,

But

What happens when the realization comes that the herd is reduced to only good cows on farm, that won't be leaving until the rancher leaves as well.

Herds are in survival mode right now, eventually replacement heifers will be the play.

Reduced herd numbers equate to reduced slaughter in time, fall 2022? through to 2025.

[TASFarms]

53% of Canadians can’t afford their bills. In last poll

South Korea had lots of Ukraine corn canceled.
Clear diesel 1.659 this morning
This is going to get ugly

[bucket]

53% of Canadians can’t afford their bills. In last poll

South Korea had lots of Ukraine corn canceled.
Clear diesel 1.659 this morning
This is going to get ugly

When oil went negative at the beginning of the pandemic, fuel prices never followed.

Does it cost more to refine today than back when oil was 0.

There seems to be some gouging going on. Not sure why a self sufficient country like canada would penalize their citizens for helping the world grow food given the shortages that are starting to be written about.

Why not make Canada a low cost producer , extract the real value for food from those that need it like India and China.

Grow our economy instead of paralyzing it with incredible excuses.

[burnt]

When oil went negative at the beginning of the pandemic, fuel prices never followed.

Does it cost more to refine today than back when oil was 0.

There seems to be some gouging going on. Not sure why a self sufficient country like canada would penalize their citizens for helping the world grow food given the shortages that are starting to be written about.

Why not make Canada a low cost producer , extract the real value for food from those that need it like India and China.

Grow our economy instead of paralyzing it with incredible excuses.

Ummm, just an idea, but maybe because socialism comes at a cost?

A cost that is always unaffordable in the end?

A cost that mostly hurts the very ones that it purports to help out?

Aw forget it, what would a dumb farmer know abut costs...

Oh crap, now this will get booted to Rural Issues...

[bucket]

Ummm, just an idea, but maybe because socialism comes at a cost?

A cost that is always unaffordable in the end?

A cost that mostly hurts the very ones that it purports to help out?

Aw forget it, what would a dumb farmer know abut costs...

Oh crap, now this will get booted to Rural Issues...

Everyone is talking about a 26 % increase in housing ...

NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THE 100% INCREASE IN FERTILIZER AND LARGE INFLATION IN FARM INPUTS.

NO ONE

[DaneG]

https://cattlerange.com/articles/2022/03/united-states-and-canadian-cattle-inventory-down-2-percent/A

[shtferbrains]

Live and feeder cattle have been in a dive of-late. Stock market fallout, weakening box beef prices and lack of U.S. buyer competition contributing to fed weakness. Alberta/Nebraska cash basis remains historically weak. Cattle feeding losses remain huge on skyrocketing feed costs while western carcass weights that have gotten too heavy in Ab and Sk. Feeder cattle futures getting swept under-the-carpet by the corn price rally.

Cow prices are the bright spot. D1/D2 bids could push above 90 cents/lb, a 20 cent/lb recovery this winter. Consumer budgets are squeezed due to surging fuel costs. Hamburger Helper sales may be strong . . . .

It's good times in the beef business if your a packer.
Cargill High River runs 4500 day with cutout well over $1000 hd plus drop of $150 hd to run the plant.

Used to be if it was good for the packer it was good for everybody down the chain.
They could let $500 per head of that trickle down and they would still be making more than they have traditionaly.

[burnt]

https://cattlerange.com/articles/2022/03/united-states-and-canadian-cattle-inventory-down-2-percent/A

Link brings a 404

Trudeau mustn'ta liked it

[jamesb]

Everyone is talking about a 26 % increase in housing ...

NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THE 100% INCREASE IN FERTILIZER AND LARGE INFLATION IN FARM INPUTS.

NO ONE

I would certainly agree that the general public are paying no attention to farm costs and the effect that this will have on food prices going forward but any farmer worth his salt in my opinion has seen this coming since early fall. Many guys I know have the largest value of pre bought inputs on hand or on the way than they ever before myself included. I am more concerned about supply than price as we are in strange times and now a European war to add to things. Regarding beef, the consumer is going to be paying high prices for a long while. Its going to be years before cattle numbers get to a point to really provide a good cushion for cattle on feed.

[Guest]

53% of Canadians can’t afford their bills. In last poll

South Korea had lots of Ukraine corn canceled.
Clear diesel 1.659 this morning
This is going to get ugly

the budget will balance itself