Friday Crop Report on a Thursday.

[blackpowder]

For my entire career fertilizer was a better buy in the fall. All farmers should know this by now.
Fall 22 could be a wild card tho.

[dmlfarmer]

I agree I took at that at the UofS

BUT DO YOU BELEIVE WHEN THE WORLD TURNS RIGHT SIDE UP GRAIN WILL DROP BUT THE PRICES WE PAY FOR EQUIPMENT ANHYDROUS FERT CHEM WILL STAY THE SAME.

That is the most likely scenario to happen in a free market, capitalist system where there are a huge numbers of small sellers (farmers) competing amongst themselves for sales to a very few buyers (grain companies) and purchasing inputs from an even smaller group of input suppliers (ag chem/fert/equipment manufactures) In a free and open market every participant strives to purchase at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest price. Is the system broken - Yes. But I do not think if is time to adopt a socialist system of price controls for all - including farmers. Now how about answering my questions - if you feel price controls are warranted on farm inputs in Canada, what should be the max price farmers can earn on grain sales in Canada and how should this be calculated?

[furrowtickler]

That is the most likely scenario to happen in a free market, capitalist system where there are a huge numbers of small sellers (farmers) competing amongst themselves for sales to a very few buyers (grain companies) and purchasing inputs from an even smaller group of input suppliers (ag chem/fert/equipment manufactures) In a free and open market every participant strives to purchase at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest price. Is the system broken - Yes. But I do not think if is time to adopt a socialist system of price controls for all - including farmers. Now how about answering my questions - if you feel price controls are warranted on farm inputs in Canada, what should be the max price farmers can earn on grain sales in Canada and how should this be calculated?

Depends if you have crop to sell at these prices

[dmlfarmer]

Depends if you have crop to sell at these prices

True, and your risk management plan in case of crop losses. No one seeds a crop expecting a crop failure. But depending on each individual's risk tolerance, good managers utilize risk management options if losses do occur.

[furrowtickler]

True, and your risk management plan in case of crop losses. No one seeds a crop expecting a crop failure. But depending on each individual's risk tolerance, good managers utilize risk management options if losses do occur.

None of us would still be here if we did not use good risk management options , except a few that started full bore after 2004 . For the majority of us it’s not our first rodeo .
Some of us have rode at least two major droughts already . Lots have failed , some of us still doing just fine , not easy but with being “good managers” we will push through regardless of some naive opinions out there. There is a reason some of us are still kicking
It’s not an accident believe it or not .
Your preaching like some of us don’t know , well , your wrong

[TOM4CWB]

None of us would still be here if we did not use good risk management options , except a few that started full bore after 2004 . For the majority of us it’s not our first rodeo .
Some of us have rode at least two major droughts already . Lots have failed , some of us still doing just fine , not easy but with being “good managers” we will push through regardless of some naive opinions out there. There is a reason some of us are still kicking
It’s not an accident believe it or not .
Your preaching like some of us don’t know , well , your wrong

The School of hard knocks can be a cruel teacher... no doubt Furrow... don't take it personal... makes for very long impossible to forget memories... wow... the books we could write... our fathers, grandfathers... great grandfathers... that built western Canada... what they went through is astounding! [Like 140 years ago growing pony oats for Fort Edmonton RCMP]

Cheers

[Guest]

For my entire career fertilizer was a better buy in the fall. All farmers should know this by now.
Fall 22 could be a wild card tho.

With the exception of 08

[SASKFARMER]

Answer mine will the price of any input drop after the shit show is over from equipment to Fert?

History teaches us grain goes up and down but history also shows us the input side continues in one direction.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

True, and your risk management plan in case of crop losses. No one seeds a crop expecting a crop failure. But depending on each individual's risk tolerance, good managers utilize risk management options if losses do occur.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst

I start out assuming a crop failure every year, and I budget accordingly. I went without crop insurance until last year. We farm in a very risky area, shortest growing season, wettest and coolest climate in the prairies, west end of the hail belt, and unforgiving grey wooded clay soil. A lot can and does go wrong.

Never had a complete wipeout, always salvaged some value from disaster. But these events leave a lasting impression.

[Hamloc]

None of us would still be here if we did not use good risk management options , except a few that started full bore after 2004 . For the majority of us it’s not our first rodeo .
Some of us have rode at least two major droughts already . Lots have failed , some of us still doing just fine , not easy but with being “good managers” we will push through regardless of some naive opinions out there. There is a reason some of us are still kicking
It’s not an accident believe it or not .
Your preaching like some of us don’t know , well , your wrong

Furrow always enjoy your outlook. I like many producers were spooked by so many producers who were unable to produce enough grain to fill contracts that historically were only 20-30% of expected production. This certainly complicates risk management.

On the input supply side the oligopoly that exists in fertilizer makes competition almost non existent and allows suppliers to dictate price. With countries like China pulling back on exports this further reduces competition. I am certainly not interested in price controls on inputs or outputs. One thing that has become very obvious throughout the pandemic is how inefficient government is and how greater participation by government solves nothing.

I certainly do agree that input prices historically come down much slower than commodity prices but that doesn’t justify greater government involvement in pricing. Could government legislation create more competition and more suppliers like Biden is attempting to do with Beef processing in the U.S? I think it is doubtful but time will tell.

[Rareearth]

Canadian producers will never be the “low cost producers” in a commodity world those are the winners.

This doesn’t suggest that growers should not strive to reduce expenses, costs, efficiencies etc

The solution i believe is for grower to participate in value chains, control/manufacture the fert and inputs, participate in processing and exporting, and the big one - manufacturing! The best example of this opportunity is biofuels, canola crushing/oil .

Manage the supply chain, reduce cost, inefficiency and waste. The best organizations to facilitate this is our commodity’s groups, works in the usa

[fjlip]

SF how COLD is it in Florida? Any fruit lost?

[SASKFARMER]

Third or fourth cold night but really not much damage they turn on sprinklers if needed. Example Miami 60 Orlando 50 Tallahassee 40 most oranges south of Orlando.

[furrowtickler]

Third or fourth cold night but really not much damage they turn on sprinklers if needed. Example Miami 60 Orlando 50 Tallahassee 40 most oranges south of Orlando.

Hopefully we are done with overnight temps below -30
Last Friday morning was -33 here .
They have taken out the plus 5-7’s here but still looking forward to anything above zero for a change .
Temps and snow change dramatically as you go south 30 miles or north 30 miles
We have been in the transition zone all winter , which is actually normal , if there is such a thing anymore 🙃

[BTO780]

My simple analogy:
Late Easter ... late spring.