Friday Crop Report on a Thursday.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canadian producers will never be the “low cost producers” in a commodity world those are the winners.

This doesn’t suggest that growers should not strive to reduce expenses, costs, efficiencies etc

The solution i believe is for grower to participate in value chains, control/manufacture the fert and inputs, participate in processing and exporting, and the big one - manufacturing! The best example of this opportunity is biofuels, canola crushing/oil .

Manage the supply chain, reduce cost, inefficiency and waste. The best organizations to facilitate this is our commodity’s groups, works in the usa

Until recently, I would have completely agreed with you about Canadians never being the low cost producer, as I have stated multiple times on here.

But, as we watch world events unfold in real time, and if people such as Zeihan are correct, and this is the end of globalization as we knew it, we have just become the low cost producer.

As it stands right now, South America imports nearly all of their fertilizer, they are already the biggest losers of the sanctions and export bans. Whereas we have home grown supplies of everything except Phosphate.

Energy, even more true. No need to even go into detail.

Capital is fleeing risk and finding its way into North America, US specifically, but by extension, our borrowing costs will likely be among the lowest in the world going forward.

As manufacturing, specifically chemicals, gets repatriated, it will be to north america.

Shipping costs are going up, and likely to keep going up as risks increase. Our biggest trading partner ( not necessarily of all Ag commodities, but in general), is on the same continent as us, our shipping risks and therefore costs will remain low( relatively).

[dmlfarmer]

Until recently, I would have completely agreed with you about Canadians never being the low cost producer, as I have stated multiple times on here.

But, as we watch world events unfold in real time, and if people such as Zeihan are correct, and this is the end of globalization as we knew it, we have just become the low cost producer.

As it stands right now, South America imports nearly all of their fertilizer, they are already the biggest losers of the sanctions and export bans. Whereas we have home grown supplies of everything except Phosphate.

Energy, even more true. No need to even go into detail.

Capital is fleeing risk and finding its way into North America, US specifically, but by extension, our borrowing costs will likely be among the lowest in the world going forward.

As manufacturing, specifically chemicals, gets repatriated, it will be to north america.

Shipping costs are going up, and likely to keep going up as risks increase. Our biggest trading partner ( not necessarily of all Ag commodities, but in general), is on the same continent as us, our shipping risks and therefore costs will remain low( relatively).

Costs do not end at the farm gate. Nor is price set on the basis of costs. Farmers will continue to be price takers no matter where inputs are made and global commodity prices will still be set by global trade participants rather than farmers. Our major trading partner exports more ag commodities than we produce so thinking the NA market will absorb our production at higher farm gate prices is a faulty argument as well. Margins could increase, but there is no assurance additional profits will trickle down to farmers and not be captured by the grain trade, input suppliers, and shipper. Any slowdown in global trade will be more of a detriment to the trade of ag commodities than a benefit to farmers.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Costs do not end at the farm gate. Nor is price set on the basis of costs. Farmers will continue to be price takers no matter where inputs are made and global commodity prices will still be set by global trade participants rather than farmers. Our major trading partner exports more ag commodities than we produce so thinking the NA market will absorb our production at higher farm gate prices is a faulty argument as well. Margins could increase, but there is no assurance additional profits will trickle down to farmers and not be captured by the grain trade, input suppliers, and shipper. Any slowdown in global trade will be more of a detriment to the trade of ag commodities than a benefit to farmers.

I never said any of those things.