Market opinion Aust

[Hamloc]

India harvesting wheat now. Banned exports.

Thanks for pointing this out. I had missed this headline. India was supposed to help with lack of wheat coming out of the Ukraine.

[Landdownunder]

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartp...ply With Quotehttps://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220516

[Landdownunder]

https://bit.ly/220518Outlook

Some one hotnlink it have a good Sunday arvo chaps

[Landdownunder]

https://bit.ly/220526WheatUpdate

[Landdownunder]

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/220602-Canola-Update.pdf

[Landdownunder]

ABARES has released its first 22/23 season estimates for #Australia. Incredibly heavy east-coast rainfall has limited winter planting. Total winter crop production is f’cast down 18% y/y. #Canola and #lentil area is f’cast higher, to the detriment of barley, beans and chickpeas.

[Landdownunder]

https://bit.ly/220606WheatBarley

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220621

Someone hot link it thanks

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/chartpack-220621

I hotlinked it, then I tried to go to the page, but I get an error. Do I need to be signed in?

[Landdownunder]

Not sure original link doesn’t work either for me

[Landdownunder]

Sorry Chaps been a while since down under opinion.

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/220729-Canola-Update.pdf

[Landdownunder]

Wheat barley tommorow AM cya Ava gd weekend

[TOM4CWB]

Sorry Chaps been a while since down under opinion.

https://www.cloudbreak.com.au/wp-con...ola-Update.pdf

Interesting the USDA has Canola in Canada at 20mmt... and the EU at 18.25mmt up 1mmt from last year.

"Managed Funds - Managed funds continue to unwind their net long position in soybeans with the weekly Commitment of Traders report showing funds sold a net 8k contracts to be 87.8k con- tacts net long, the lowest level since December 2022. The funds increased their net short position in ICE canola by around 6k contracts to be at 16k net short the largest net short position since July 2020."...

As the global balance sheet begins to loosen its belt, oilseed prices could begin to normalise from the extreme levels seen over the last 12 months.
Nov. ‘22 Matif (EU) ****seed
We maintain our recommendation of 25 to 30% forward sales of conservative production. Growers who are underweight against their usual hedging program may look to add to sales on the re- cent uptick in prices which are still at decile 9.56. Otherwise, Aus- tralian canola prices seasonally reach a low through July / August and rise into October where further sales should be targeted."

Very interesting Mallee! A nice 20mm here tonight... on the dry side but nice crops here.

Blessings and Salutations!

[Landdownunder]

Thanks Tom at least someone reads it……

Just market opinion from down here take it or leave it.

Foward selling common in oz whereas reading comments from you guys options trading used widely it seems in place of physical sales. Both good options.

I’m looking for a run up to $370 on farm for feed barley will foward sell another parcel export market. Parcels usually 120 to 200 tonne licks

[TOM4CWB]

Thanks Tom at least someone reads it……

Just market opinion from down here take it or leave it.

Foward selling common in oz whereas reading comments from you guys options trading used widely it seems in place of physical sales. Both good options.

I’m looking for a run up to $370 on farm for feed barley will foward sell another parcel export market. Parcels usually 120 to 200 tonne licks

Mallee, I am selling cash grains and cover risk of being short of grain by buying call options in tandem.

The Put options are very good risk management insurance especially early in the season before we have an indication where our production/yields are headed.

The upward volatility creates huge opportunity… Put options to catch the premium as the market falls at an extremely fast pace.

The Australian perspective is very helpful for gleaning a balanced marketing plan !!!

Blessings and Salutations

[Landdownunder]

New seasons barley kicked almost $20 per tonne since Friday.

Reasons not known to me.

Sold into it small lick 125t at $360 on farm straight off combine