Yellow Pea Chart

[wheatking16]

Notice how the Yellow Pea price has been following this ascending channel pattern on the logarithmic chart?

Typo Correction from triangle.

This Bullish trend is likely to continue with the plant-based food movement.



https://klarenbachspecialcropsreport.substack.com/p/yellow-peas-price-channel?s=w

[Guest]

We got some at $18.65 last winter for July , crazy price
About $16.50 now

[wheatking16]

We got some at $18.65 last winter for July , crazy price
About $16.50 now

Insane

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Notice how the Yellow Pea price has been following this ascending triangle pattern on the logarithmic chart?

This Bullish trend is likely to continue with the plant-based food movement.

[ATTACH]10460[/ATTACH]

https://klarenbachspecialcropsreport.substack.com/p/yellow-peas-price-channel?s=w

That ascending triangle looks very parallel. Do I misunderstand what you mean by triangle? Or do those lines actually cross sometime in the next millenium?

Surprising how often a logarithmic chart fits better than a linear. Why is that?

[wheatking16]

That ascending triangle looks very parallel. Do I misunderstand what you mean by triangle? Or do those lines actually cross sometime in the next millenium?

Surprising how often a logarithmic chart fits better than a linear. Why is that?

You are correct.

I am not sure why I typed triangle but channel is correct.

Late at night I suppose.

I really don't know why log charts often fit better other than they measure a percent change in price.

[ALBERTAFARMER4]

Oops, didn't see it was a log chart. These charts are useless because the money supply in 2015 is a lot different than the money supply in 2022.

[BTO780]

I don’t care if it’s square, rectangular, or a circle chart or anything else, just give me $18 peas again this yr.

But thankful for the pet food market. Glad something picked up the slack from the Chinese.

[wheatking16]

Oops, didn't see it was a log chart. These charts are useless because the money supply in 2015 is a lot different than the money supply in 2022.

That is disappointing.

Seven years of intensive study down the drain.....

[bucket]

That is disappointing.

Seven years of intensive study down the drain.....

I always like looking at visuals like those charts. Quick snapshot. Now if I could just remember the events that caused the highs and lows.

Nothing down the drain if people appreciate your work.

Maybe if there was an indexing function to it all?

I get people/ farmers say these are high prices, but if all the factors are taken into account, are they really high prices?

As an example , what is 6 dollars wheat from 1974 worth, indexed to today? 25-30 bucks a bushel.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Oops, didn't see it was a log chart. These charts are useless because the money supply in 2015 is a lot different than the money supply in 2022.

To answer my own question, isn't that exactly why the log chart would be more appropriate?

If money supply growth is compounding every year, then even if inflation was constant, then 2% of a trillion is a lot less than 2% of 10 trillion ( to pull numbers out of thin air), so on a linear chart, the pattern will be exponential, and the left end will be lost/ overwhelmed by the right end, even though the magnitude of the moves may be the same.

[wheatking16]

To answer my own question, isn't that exactly why the log chart would be more appropriate?

If money supply growth is compounding every year, then even if inflation was constant, then 2% of a trillion is a lot less than 2% of 10 trillion ( to pull numbers out of thin air), so on a linear chart, the pattern will be exponential, and the left end will be lost/ overwhelmed by the right end, even though the magnitude of the moves may be the same.

Good point.

Log charts are more effective at displaying relative moves.

[wheatking16]

I always like looking at visuals like those charts. Quick snapshot. Now if I could just remember the events that caused the highs and lows.

Nothing down the drain if people appreciate your work.

Maybe if there was an indexing function to it all?

I get people/ farmers say these are high prices, but if all the factors are taken into account, are they really high prices?

As an example , what is 6 dollars wheat from 1974 worth, indexed to today? 25-30 bucks a bushel.

Some thoughts to consider.

The interaction between commodity prices and inflation is complex.

My thesis is that inflation has little impact on commodities.

Perhaps an increase in money supply has kept the price of food relatively inexpensive.

I suspect a paper has been written on this subject; although I have not looked for one.

Please share if you find one.

I remember looking at a 100-year downward sloping Real Price of Wheat chart during which time the USD and CAD lost more than 90% of their purchasing power.

However; I tend to think that the increase in money supply and subsequent access to capital has accelerated investment in technology increasing food production relative to the increase in demand.

Technological advancements have a remarkable way of minimizing the impact of inflation on commodities.

Consider the recent technological advancements in ag that have increased yields and allowed for the expansion of the original Canola and pea production areas.


Something to consider.

[bucket]

Consider the recent technological advancements in ag that have increased yields and allowed for the expansion of the original Canola and pea production areas.

Interesting comment.

Technological advancements have made half tons worth $100,000.

You see where I might be going with this?

[wheatking16]

Consider the recent technological advancements in ag that have increased yields and allowed for the expansion of the original Canola and pea production areas.

Interesting comment.

Technological advancements have made half tons worth $100,000.

You see where I might be going with this?

It is complex.

A few years ago, my brother spec'd out a new Ford with the same specs and technology as his 2002.

I believe a new truck was $2000 more.

He is on here, so maybe he can add to this.

[Rareearth]

Royal Lapage says 2022 housing price increases to be 15% ( and housing starts down 2%)

Movie theatres are full

We are very fortunate to have protein and pet food markets, ethanol, and maybe bio diesel in regina soon.

I think ive seen somewhere global population growth is near zero. Its damn difficult to be a market maker - paper or physical commodities