Once in a Lifetime Opportunity

[crusher]

Wow. Canola is on a ripper following the lead of soybean oil and the other oil complexes. The market is doing its best to buy acres. When will it end? Who is switching over acres to participate? I am, if I can find seed. What will the price be this fall, anybody's guess.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The trouble with these once in a lifetime opportunities, is that they are happening so often and continuously, and I'm not sure what to do.

An older neighbor of mine who has been doing this a lot longer than I have and very successful called me up about 16 months ago to tell me about the once in a lifetime opportunity to sell grain at those prices, to make sure that I was taking advantage of them because I would never see those again in my lifetime.
Well I'm still sitting on most of the grain I had the day he called me.
Almost every sale made over the past two years has been wrong in hindsight.

Reminds me of the climate alarmists, and they're once in a century events based on almost no historical data which keep occurring with predictable regularity.

[furrowtickler]

It’s very possible to be an opportunity of a lifetime as long as we get a decent crop 👍
But if not , it could be the costliest venture in our lifetime. Crop insurance levels are ok , let’s hope we don’t need it this year .
My glass only half full after last year and getting our feet kicked out from under us over the years , sometimes at the last minute.
Will see when October is done .
Here is hoping 🤞

[blackpowder]

Canadian producers don't have a legacy of risk management to rely on. We still have a generation or so to learn.
Although this volatility is in the extreme, the same basic management tools should apply.
Having said that, me? I'm in some state of frozen shock for now lolol.

[TOM4CWB]

I hear Indonesia banned Palm oil exports...

[crusher]

I saw the ban. How would you like if Justin banned exports of canola?

[FarmJunkie]

No exports tells the story. Short production and when that happens u gotta keep the people from rioting

[STR1]

I know a friend and neighbour who signed a fair bit of fall delivered canola at $19. My fear is if we don’t plant all the acres in SE Sask or we plant late and it freezes early fall could get caught a long ways off side. I would love to sign a DDC on canola at these prices now but I’m still a wary of doing it!!

[furrowtickler]

Right now it’s like having a winning lottery ticket you may never ever cash in , but hope too and everyone is stealing money from you that you may never have

[TOM4CWB]

Right now it’s like having a winning lottery ticket you may never ever cash in , but hope too and everyone is stealing money from you that you may never have

A Nov22 $1085 Canola Put costs $85/t. On our Nexera... the Basis is +65/t this nets $1065/t or $24.15/bu net [after paying the $85/t for the put].

That is truly a once in a lifetime price. That is guarenteed $845/ac at our 80% Crop Insurance Coverage.

[wheatking16]

I know a friend and neighbour who signed a fair bit of fall delivered canola at $19. My fear is if we don’t plant all the acres in SE Sask or we plant late and it freezes early fall could get caught a long ways off side. I would love to sign a DDC on canola at these prices now but I’m still a wary of doing it!!

Nov 2022 keeps making new weekly highs.

Let the trend be your friend.

[jazz]

Gotta grow it first. We are 2 weeks off our usual seeding window. Dont want a repeat of the harvest from hell.

Its nice to guarantee returns, but by this time next yr, Canola could be $1400 a bu. I dont see how supply shocks and shortages get resolved in a single yr.

[sumdumguy]

$1400/bus? That’s way too cheap. 😂

[Sodbuster]

That’s next year’s price in Canadian pesos.

[foragefarmer]

If all inputs were purchased late summer /early fall for the 2022 growing season and a decent crop is harvested good money will be made.

For those who bought inputs in the new year or are currently buying, will it be any different then past years regarding net return?

One thing is guaranteed for the latter, their screens will be locked in on the weather like never before.

Even greater stress will be added to everybody for the next 6 months.

Good luck to everybody in the new age of Casino Farming!