Hard Red Spring Wheat

[furrowtickler]

Now Kansas wheat moving up big as well

[wheatking16]

Chicago wheat moving up this morning

For my strategy, July needs to get above the VWAPs from the March and April highs currently at 1085 ish for a high probability entry.

In such an event, my stop would go below 1037.

Subject to change, of course......

A break above the 1129 and the trendline gets me excited.

There is a time to be bullish and a time to enter.

They are often at two different price levels.

[beaverdam]

Sounds like India's wheat crop is cooking, in the high 40'sC

Just think back to the damage done to our wheat when we were in the 36-40'C heat

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/india-considers-restricting-wheat-exports-as-heat-destroys-crops-1.1760893

Shaving 6mmt from a 111mmt crop forecast. Now talking about restricting exports.

[Sodbuster]

Looks like experts are ok both sides of the fence on India, still think there is enough problems in the world to boost wheat prices, will see how much longer the market ignores wheat.

[wheatking16]

Looks like experts are ok both sides of the fence on India, still think there is enough problems in the world to boost wheat prices, will see how much longer the market ignores wheat.
[ATTACH]10521[/ATTACH]

What does one believe?

Is the news accurate?

Is the news current?

Is one interpreting the news accurately?

What will be the news next hour? Tomorrow? Next week?

A lot of moving parts.

A lot of noise.

How can one apply the news to make decisions?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What does one believe?

Is the news accurate?

Is the news current?

Is one interpreting the news accurately?

What will be the news next hour? Tomorrow? Next week?

A lot of moving parts.

A lot of noise.

How can one apply the news to make decisions?

Unless you are the first one in the world to know the news, one probably shouldn't use it to make marketing decisions.

I did price a chunk of wheat on Monday.

[LWeber]

What does one believe?

Is the news accurate?
Is the news current?
Is one interpreting the news accurately?
What will be the news next hour? Tomorrow? Next week?
A lot of moving parts.
A lot of noise.
How can one apply the news to make decisions?

__________________________________________________ ______________________
What experience have you had trading your own account?
Are you still trading your own account?
Who do you think were the best traders at the WCE when it was open outcry? Chart traders or news traders?

I also was able to watch everyone's position get filed on my desk at 2:00 PM every single day. Chart traders and news traders and a combination of both. We escorted a few traders off the floor in my days there.

Looking forward to your replies...

[wheatking16]

__________________________________________________ ______________________
What experience have you had trading your own account?
Are you still trading your own account?
Who do you think were the best traders at the WCE when it was open outcry? Chart traders or news traders?

I also was able to watch everyone's position get filed on my desk at 2:00 PM every single day. Chart traders and news traders and a combination of both. We escorted a few traders off the floor in my days there.

Looking forward to your replies...

What experience have you had trading your own account?
7 years

Are you still trading your own account?
Yes

Who do you think were the best traders at the WCE when it was open outcry? Chart traders or news traders?



Who are the best traders is subjective with the answer being difficult to support. Perhaps there is a study to reference?

Trading on a short timeframe is difficult and technically in that era would be extremley difficult with or without today's technology.

It is best to compare strategies on the same commodity and timeframe.

Not many are willing to be transparent though.

My guess is that those who survive long enough to develop a feel for the tape and the energy of the room would be on your list of best traders.

That skill can only be learned with much experience and is not transferrable.

I call this the Art of Trading.

Buddy, with decades of cash crop experience, who I believe can feel the market has entries and exits which match up uncannily with my technical strategy.

He does not apply technicals.

He may not even believe in them.

It blows my mind.

I say he has developed the Art of Trading.


Anyways,

Floored, is a great documentary about the Chicago trading floors and trading there would have been a great experience.

It can be found on YouTube.

Maybe Larry is in there.

[LWeber]

[QUOTE=wheatking16;539239][I]

Are you still trading your own account?
Yes - Do you advise your positions to your clients before making recommendations?

Who do you think were the best traders at the WCE when it was open outcry? Chart traders or news traders?

Trading on a short timeframe is difficult and technically in that era would be extremley difficult with or withou today's technology.

LOL...Denis Cattani in 1995 - had 3 screens open for charts and 3 screens open for scrolling wires - they were interchangeable to provide any combination of trading screens. charts or news ...the tech has been around longer than you think .

Joe Dreman of WCE lore had a son named David Dreman who was born in Winnipeg and his Dad's domain was not big enough for his aspirations - killed Wall Street - made an absolute fortune - then wrote a book. I suggest you read it before watching a video


There is only one gauge and that will be money - he who has the most - wins - period.

Not familiar with Floored - although i am an old fk - I've been fortunate to be around some of the trading greats measured only by money

Be careful - there are enough FCM's that read Agriville who have 25 to 40 years experience in their fields and every public medium that they are on - they are expected to provide full disclosure if they have open positions. There are some regulators who also frequent these pages such as the CFTC and IIROC

[Guest]

Definitely a couple bins of 19 crop left. Most of the 20, and most of the 21. All with temp cables and aeration. Dried to beyond dry, since the 19 and 20 started out at closer to 20%.
To say I've got experience with storing grain at dangerous levels would be an understatement.

did you feel an empty aching in your nuts when canola dropped a dollar a bushel on monday ?
we are 80% sold and i sure did lol
time to liquidate for me

[wheatking16]

[QUOTE=LWeber;539242]

[I]

Are you still trading your own account?
Yes - Do you advise your positions to your clients before making recommendations?

Who do you think were the best traders at the WCE when it was open outcry? Chart traders or news traders?

Trading on a short timeframe is difficult and technically in that era would be extremley difficult with or withou today's technology.

LOL...Denis Cattani in 1995 - had 3 screens open for charts and 3 screens open for scrolling wires - they were interchangeable to provide any combination of trading screens. charts or news ...the tech has been around longer than you think .

Joe Dreman of WCE lore had a son named David Dreman who was born in Winnipeg and his Dad's domain was not big enough for his aspirations - killed Wall Street - made an absolute fortune - then wrote a book. I suggest you read it before watching a video


There is only one gauge and that will be money - he who has the most - wins - period.

Not familiar with Floored - although I am an old fk - I've been fortunate to be around some of the trading greats measured only by money

Be careful - there are enough FCM's that read Agriville who have 25 to 40 years experience in their fields and every public medium that they are on - they are expected to provide full disclosure if they have open positions. There are some regulators who also frequent these pages such as the CFTC and IIROC

I have always appreciated your opinion and wisdom.

Today is no different.

Thanks

[helmsdale]

Anyone have an up to date stocks to use ratio on HRS?

Also, all else being equal, how many mT have to be produced this year to meet traditional demand?

News Im seeing (old)
-china winter wheat crop worst on record... Has there been any update on this?
-Ukraine/Russia... Even if there aren't outright restrictions placed on Russian shipments, I've heard rumors that the shipping industry is essentially "on its own" when it comes to entering the Black Sea now. No insurance company is willing to touch it.

(newer)
-Indian heat wave: rumors that if significant damage is done, there may be export restrictions put into place. This on a year, when India earlier, had been hoping to be an exporter. (does anyone know what stage this crop would be at? How vulnerable is it to heat at the moment?)
-Southern US heatwave coming: looks like we've got a 3-4 day spell of 95 to 100+ weather coming for the south. I've seen a few pictures/videos of northern Texas and Oklahoma and there are certainly places there that are struggling. Looks to be heading or starting to fill... In my experience, heat at that stage is rough on final yield numbers.
-Northern Plains and Manitoba flooding: This is a little closer to home for us. What are guys seeing in southern manitoba? Are you going to be able to get a respectable portion of the crop seeded at an acceptable date?
-Southern AB and Southern SK dryness. Have i said it's dry here lately? I'm deliberately delaying seeding this year in the hope that the very limited topsoil moisture we have can effectively get a crop germinated with VERY warm soil, and limp it along until "monsoon season"... If something significant doesn't show up here the end of May and beginning of June, there is absolutely nothing for this crop to draw on! That would be year 2 for me, and 3 or 4 for guys further south and east of me.