Hard Red Spring Wheat

[wheatking16]

MGEX July Wheat Futures are making a move tonight.

Onwards and upwards

[wheatking16]

MGEX July Wheat Futures are making a move tonight.

Onwards and upwards

[ATTACH]10488[/ATTACH]

Strategy behind the paywall with 7-day trial.

Correct Link

https://klarenbachgrainreport.substack.com/p/hard-red-spring-wheat-9e4?s=w

[Oliver88]

Wheat in the bin going over $15?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Wouldn't an effective strategy be: hold?

[wheatking16]

Wouldn't an effective strategy be: hold?

Exactly like you have been doing.

[Sodbuster]

Planning on putting a targets in this morning, thinking first target will be 15.10.

[wheatking16]

Planning on putting a targets in this morning, thinking first target will be 15.10.

Question:

I am curious.

How did you arrive at 15.10?

There are no wrong answers.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Exactly like you have been doing.

Works until it doesn't.

I'd say the 2019 canola I still have in the bins will pay for the bins many times over

[wheatking16]

Works until it doesn't.

I'd say the 2019 canola I still have in the bins will pay for the bins many times over

This was not a fluke and worked well for your timeframe.

I say that your knowledge of market structure with the ability to recognize the formation of a base and a trend change will serve you well when the time comes to sell.

[poorboy]

Works until it doesn't.

I'd say the 2019 canola I still have in the bins will pay for the bins many times over

If I remember correctly, you farm at the western edge of crop land by the mountains and always struggle to get harvest done due to wet falls and immature grain. Are you not worried storing canola that long with your difficult harvests, or do you just keep track on paper of what was sold from the 2019 crop and the canola might actually be from 2021?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If I remember correctly, you farm at the western edge of crop land by the mountains and always struggle to get harvest done due to wet falls and immature grain. Are you not worried storing canola that long with your difficult harvests, or do you just keep track on paper of what was sold from the 2019 crop and the canola might actually be from 2021?

Definitely a couple bins of 19 crop left. Most of the 20, and most of the 21. All with temp cables and aeration. Dried to beyond dry, since the 19 and 20 started out at closer to 20%.
To say I've got experience with storing grain at dangerous levels would be an understatement.

[Guest]

man , you must have a pile of storage !

[bucket]

man , you must have a pile of storage !

Storage pays . I have been told that many times on this site.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

man , you must have a pile of storage !

Just different priorities than most. Don't have any addiction to shiny paint but investments in bins have been the best ROI on the farm. And used bins are very cheap since the real Grain Farmers don't want anything under 20,000 bushels.
I guess that most of the used bins I've bought have had a one or two year payback.
The last 2 years even new bins have a one-year payback.
I get lots of comments on the number of bins we have, especially this far west. But I think everyone laughs at the rest of the equipment.

[Sodbuster]

Question:

I am curious.

How did you arrive at 15.10?

There are no wrong answers.

Wheat market was already high last fall and hasn’t gone up much since than with these factors to consider.
Possible shortage of fertilizer in Europe and South America and North America
Russia Ukraine war, how much wheat will get planted and fertilized and infrastructure problems
Of all grains wheat has lagged behind
Winter wheat in US not in the best conditions
High fertilizer prices and possible shortage of chemicals.
Possible drought yet.