Its just noise,..carry on - India bans all wheat exports over food security risk

[farmboy44]

Someone explains to me why India imports lentils and peas but exports wheat.

Some sort of globalization bullshite again.

Vegetarian population. The demand for lentils per capita is larger in countries with more vegetarians. This population is growing, and so to Is It’s demand for protein - peas offer about double the protein percentage of wheat pound for pound, at generally about the same price per MT. More affluent populations consume lentils despite the higher price. The poorer portions of the population consume the countries large domestic chickpea production.

India grows a substantial amount of both crops. However their demand for pulses is not proportionate to their production.

Wheat production on the other hand outpaces demand, hence the exports (in a normal year). This year it does not.

The year is coming in which Canada will limit or stop canola exports as well. With domestic crush capacity pegged as high as 16M for 2024 a crop wreck like we had last year (12-13M production) will necessitate it. Export bans would not apply to the at least 2-3mmt will be presold for new crop delivery via export most years. But it could mean that forward export sales for subsequent years could not be made.

[bucket]

Vegetarian population. The demand for lentils per capita is larger in countries with more vegetarians. This population is growing, and so to Is It’s demand for protein - peas offer about double the protein percentage of wheat pound for pound, at generally about the same price per MT. More affluent populations consume lentils despite the higher price. The poorer portions of the population consume the countries large domestic chickpea production.

India grows a substantial amount of both crops. However their demand for pulses is not proportionate to their production.

Wheat production on the other hand outpaces demand, hence the exports (in a normal year). This year it does not.

The year is coming in which Canada will limit or stop canola exports as well. With domestic crush capacity pegged as high as 16M for 2024 a crop wreck like we had last year (12-13M production) will necessitate it. Export bans would not apply to the at least 2-3mmt will be presold for new crop delivery via export most years. But it could mean that forward export sales for subsequent years could not be made.

Canada is already importing canola

[farmboy44]

Canada is already importing canola

I didn’t say we aren’t, but we aren’t in sort of notable amount.

Some Montana/ND Canola might hit southern crushers but it’s minimal at best. 100-150k per year, 1% of what we export. Your statement is true but your refering to a piss in the ocean. Even this year with how short our canola crop is we won’t bring in more than 150k.

There was a rumor the crusher in becancour Quebec bought a EU cargo late last summer but It wasnt true.

[bucket]

I didn’t say we aren’t, but we aren’t in sort of notable amount.

Some Montana/ND Canola might hit southern crushers but it’s minimal at best. 100-150k per year, 1% of what we export. Your statement is true but your refering to a piss in the ocean. Even this year with how short our canola crop is we won’t bring in more than 150k.

There was a rumor the crusher in becancour Quebec bought a EU cargo late last summer but It wasnt true.

I wasn't making an arguable point but if the crop doesn't come in at a substantial improvement over last year , one would think those crush plants would get a second look.

If they get built and production doesn't keep pace , imports would be needed.

Add in the ridiculous policies the liberal government is suggesting and it may change the plant builds as well, unless of course they are built down east.

I just throw the comments out for talking points , while the amounts are small, things can change rapidly.

And government currently has policies that are not friendly to accomplishing more production , more processing and overall more for the economy.

The current government policy if continued could see where more grain is imported.

Look at how the potato issue was handled in PEI, they ended up putting 17 million pounds through a snowblower because they didn't look pretty.

ANd Russia will be selling wheat to the world while we become what they use to be.

[jazz]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

[LEP]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

Not a like.

[Quadtrack]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

India Ag policy is best described as knee jerk and heads a different direction about every week. They did, and maybe still do, subsidize urea to the farmer, to stimulate wheat and rice production. I was there in 2015-the ground was literally white with hand spread urea in prep for a wheat crop. The farmers had no idea if it needed N, or how much, or rate applied-but it was subsidized. The soil looked terrible-zero organic matter and irrigation infrastructure was crumbling-built by the Brit’s in the 40’s.

Were they ever going to export wheat, or much wheat? Doubtful. 1.4 billion Indians to feed plus give some to Pakistan and Bangladesh. The India govt made a deal with Russia-we won’t export wheat, and we will buy cheaper oil from you - you export your wheat and whatever you can take from Ukraine at now higher prices. Send it to India, or through Singapore ports and it will end up in world wheat markets nicely laundered.

Back to on the ground in India - if there ever was a country living hand to mouth, this is it. They always are trying to manipulate the market of various things to their advantage. And so close to millions starving to death it’s amazing. Sustainable has a very different definition there-it means can we get the population enough calories to get by into next month, and how can this happen as cheaply as possible. It’s quite a place. And no wonder thousands/tens of thousands of them are coming here.

[farmboy44]

India Ag policy is best described as knee jerk and heads a different direction about every week. They did, and maybe still do, subsidize urea to the farmer, to stimulate wheat and rice production. I was there in 2015-the ground was literally white with hand spread urea in prep for a wheat crop. The farmers had no idea if it needed N, or how much, or rate applied-but it was subsidized. The soil looked terrible-zero organic matter and irrigation infrastructure was crumbling-built by the Brit’s in the 40’s.

Were they ever going to export wheat, or much wheat? Doubtful. 1.4 billion Indians to feed plus give some to Pakistan and Bangladesh. The India govt made a deal with Russia-we won’t export wheat, and we will buy cheaper oil from you - you export your wheat and whatever you can take from Ukraine at now higher prices. Send it to India, or through Singapore ports and it will end up in world wheat markets nicely laundered.

Back to on the ground in India - if there ever was a country living hand to mouth, this is it. They always are trying to manipulate the market of various things to their advantage. And so close to millions starving to death it’s amazing. Sustainable has a very different definition there-it means can we get the population enough calories to get by into next month, and how can this happen as cheaply as possible. It’s quite a place. And no wonder thousands/tens of thousands of them are coming here.

Thanks, this is valuable insight to the discussion. India also lacks the Infrustructure to adequately distribute their wheat production in a timely manner. They don’t have the storage facilities or transportation ability to get all that wheat to the starving people they need it prior to it spoiling. Millions of tonnes spoil in government warehouses, i imagine during this recent heat wave the situation was not good either

[checking]

farmboy, why doesn't india convert wheat acres to lentils if they have a surplus, especially if they have shortages of fertilizer and high inputs. Kinda doesnt make sense for us to grow lentils here for them to buy and then they send wheat to china or whatever.

Honestly sounds like some fishy globalization scheme, just like how countries with oil end up importing oil instead of extracting it themselves.

Suggest it is agronomic practice involving crop rotation. Ascochyta blight, anthracnose, botrytis grey mould, sclerotina white mould, etc. problematic from flowering to maturity. How many times could you run lentils before your fungicide bill, or doesn't work, put you out of business?

[Old Cowzilla]

I would think other countries have crop rotation like us for disease and weed control hence different crops. The canola, canola, canola thing don't work here forever either. Asian countries are more concerned about getting cheap grain from Canada to save money not about starving people.