Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[jazz]

Dry down for some, wet for MB and not much rainfall forecasted where its needed.

[blackpowder]

Our forecast so far for June is 0 rain.
We will need some or else.

[helmsdale]

Our forecast so far for June is 0 rain.
We will need some or else.

6z GFS has 0.17" of accumulated moisture here thru June 14. If that rings true, I don't see how there's much of anything left by then. Not only can we not survive a hot spell, I do not think we have the reserves to survive even ONE hot day!

Hands down the driest I've ever seen it this time of year. Subsoil reserve is ZERO, the band of moisture that we're relying on for germination is not going to take this crop very far... I drug my ass this spring and put everything in far later than is typical in an effort to get this crop ever closer to the next rain event. Surely it will rain at some point, but early seeded crops in particular are going to start getting very hungry for moisture and nutrients here in the next couple weeks. By the 14th, everything is going to be looking for water.

Once I get done with mustard here, I'll probably head out and try to do some soil probes and see what we're really looking at for a moisture band. Typically I soil sample here every year in the fall. Last fall I could not as neither the probe, or a deep fluted drill bit was capable of bringing up the flour from below 3 or 4 inches. I thought I'd go out this spring and was able to sample one quarter with a drill but even then it was a poor sample as 50+% of the cores didn't have a 6-12" component as you could not bring that dirt up. I was hoping to get out after seeding to see where I sit nutrient wise, so that in the event it did start raining i'd know what I should top dress... I don't think there's going to be a need. If this keeps up for much longer, it looks like even the paltry amount of fertilizer I put down this year will be a complete waste of cash.

[beaverdam]

2" Sat night/Sun noon,,, at a standstill again.

We were still circling around wet spots Sat afternoon, now they'll be even bigger, minus what will be sitting in water.

Looks like we're forecast for a couple days of strong wind, maybe get going again Thur or Fri.

[helmsdale]

I posted this comment in another thread, but probably worth repeating. It applies in the inverse for those lads/lasses in the rain zone. If the "rain train", that Drew Lerner talked about in the early part of this year doesn't materialize, it is very quickly going to turn into the "pain train"! And with respect, if the rain train keeps rolling through eastern SK, and most of MB it'll be the same.

There's ALOT of money in this years crop! I've tried to play defense as well as I can, but this one has the potential to sting like none other. Fuel, Chemical, Fertilizer, Rent, Parts, etc... all heading higher. I don't think we've ever left ourselves this exposed with the level of risk that's on the table!

[beaverdam]

I posted this comment in another thread, but probably worth repeating. It applies in the inverse for those lads/lasses in the rain zone. If the "rain train", that Drew Lerner talked about in the early part of this year doesn't materialize, it is very quickly going to turn into the "pain train"! And with respect, if the rain train keeps rolling through eastern SK, and most of MB it'll be the same.

There's ALOT of money in this years crop! I've tried to play defense as well as I can, but this one has the potential to sting like none other. Fuel, Chemical, Fertilizer, Rent, Parts, etc... all heading higher. I don't think we've ever left ourselves this exposed with the level of risk that's on the table!

Wished there was some way of sharing our wet weather.

Started farming in the mid 70's and farmed through the dry 80's, saw lots of dust in the air and at the same time Roundup was $25/liter and wheat was $3-4.00 bucks.
At that time, I could never image being as wet as we have been over the last 10-11 years.
But oldtimes back in the day, would talk about the wet 1940's, I guess we're in that wet cycle again.

[Guest]

Yep history always repeats
But these whacked out leftard climatards figure the sky is falling

[sumdumguy]

Wished there was some way of sharing our wet weather.

Started farming in the mid 70's and farmed through the dry 80's, saw lots of dust in the air and at the same time Roundup was $25/liter and wheat was $3-4.00 bucks.
At that time, I could never image being as wet as we have been over the last 10-11 years.
But oldtimes back in the day, would talk about the wet 1940's, I guess we're in that wet cycle again.

Beaverdam, sounds like you are in SE corner of Sask. Do you think Rafferty- Alameda has changed the macro climate as it seems that water attracts the rains?

[helmsdale]

Yep history always repeats
But these whacked out leftard climatards figure the sky is falling

Some of the most advanced super computers in the world run 6 or 12 hour runs every day trying to "model" the weather 2-15 days out. They take all the available data from thousands of global weather stations, hundreds of weather balloons, and a handful of weather satellites... they then come up with solutions that take into account the last couple decades of actual results. Constantly inputting old data and comparing against actual outcomes and we STILL cant say with any degree of certainty what's going to happen more than next day!

But 50 or 100 years out? We got that shit down to the tenth of a degree!

[fjlip]

Said same for 20 years. All 100% BULLSHIT for an agenda....$$$ for some, COSTS for the rest.

Adding poor dry crops, POOR wet very late crops, pointing to major disaster for prairies as a whole. FROST will destroy last hope.
except for the small middle happy place...wherever that might be.

[sawfly1]

Running on fumes here too , 3/10 for may is not cutting it. A week of heat will likely finish us off if it happens.
And a 15 of June rain will mean October maturity. Yikes

[Guest]

Aylsham , Sk
Done seeding a week ago
Wheat in 3 leaf

[sawfly1]

Maybe it is time to buy a baler, to salvage something from all that pricy Fertlizer. When the big rain comes on the 23 of June.from my second crop.
Made the mistake of looking at the forecast after my first post.

[beaverdam]

Beaverdam, sounds like you are in SE corner of Sask. Do you think Rafferty- Alameda has changed the macro climate as it seems that water attracts the rains?

I remember talk of that when they were built, but honestly the surface area of Rafferty isn't really that great, atleast compared to Lake Diefenbaker, Alameda is much smaller still. If they add to rainfall amounts, it would be hard to know how much. I don't think that is a commonly held idea, among farmers east of the dams.
Long term data shows that SE Sask most always gets it's share of rain. Provincial soil maps from the 80's had us in an area described as "Moist Dark Brown" In the 70's, Estevan's long term avg rainfall was higher than places like Regina or Wadena.
We'll never get much moisture from a rain that comes from B.C., 95% or more of our moisture comes from systems moving out of Montana or Colorado.
Direct seeding into standing stubble is likely more the cause of our wet fields. (more snow catch, more ground shaded from wind and sun)

[seldomseen]

Aylsham , Sk
Done seeding a week ago
Wheat in 3 leaf

Ain't that the truth! Good land pays and its hard to believe people will pay as much for our clay land as they will in that area!
Forecast was for 5-10 mm but we got 1.5 inches on fields that were already to wet to plant. Water is running out of the fields again.