Canola

[VK58]

We will have 1/2 a crop in western Canada again if it don’t rain in 2/3 of Alberta and Sask within 10 days

Or quit raining here in Manitoba and warm up, f**king drain tile won't thaw out to let the fields dry out, June the 5th, last year it was 41c this year 41f

[furrowtickler]

Or quit raining here in Manitoba and warm up, f**king drain tile won't thaw out to let the fields dry out, June the 5th, last year it was 41c this year 41f

Exactly, wow that’s brutal

[FarmJunkie]

Or quit raining here in Manitoba and warm up, f**king drain tile won't thaw out to let the fields dry out, June the 5th, last year it was 41c this year 41f

That’s the problem with some of our wet fields. Drains are frozen yet. Hard to believe but true

[agstar77]

Canola just going in around here. Planted before rain just emerging. Too cold for most flea beetles, just hatching. Soy just starting to come up seeded 26 May.

.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Another puzzling day on the markets.

In response to the missile strike on the #2 Ukrainian port for wheat and #1 for sunflower oil, and reports that it was basically destroyed. Likely full of product considering the difficulty in exporting anything currently, wheat prices were way up starting last night, and soy oil prices down ( nearby) and soybeans/ canola lackluster.

Lots of participants in the market, but it seems that those who trade headlines think that Ukraine is only an exporter of wheat, not sunflower oil and products. I still maintain that the oil is the bigger story out of Ukraine. Wheat is grown all over the world, at all times of the year. Vegetable oils, specifically sunflowers don't have that luxury.

Ukraine produces more vegetable oil than all of Canada.

Ukraine and Russia together produce the vast majority of all sunflower/oil in the world.

Sunflower oil accounting for either side of 10% of all world veg oil production.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Good to see you are still with us wheatKing16.

I don't have any strong convictions about the direction of the market right now technically. Any free advice you are willing to share? Or anything in your latest paid analysis that would make it worth the money?
I should rephrase that. I'm sure it's always worth the money, but anything really exceptional right now?

[wheatking16]

Good to see you are still with us wheatKing16.

I don't have any strong convictions about the direction of the market right now technically. Any free advice you are willing to share? Or anything in your latest paid analysis that would make it worth the money?
I should rephrase that. I'm sure it's always worth the money, but anything really exceptional right now?

Nothing really exceptional right now.

I will post something tonight after I walk my dog.

Perhaps, I will share how today's wheat bounce was anticipated last Wednesday and Friday by a few Agrivillians ahead of the Russia grain terminal strike.

I won't engage in a debate about how News Follows Price so maybe I will go to yoga before I post and get all zen.

[Old Cowzilla]

If I can't get the crop in does that effect the yields ?

[wheatking16]

I am getting mixed messages with NOV Canola.

The Canola NOV22 Daily chart has the price below the 50 DMA and struggling with the overhead supply and the yellow trendline.

Bearish on the short timeframe.

A close above the 50 DMA gets me all hot and bothered.



Soybeans are telling me another story.


The nearby Soybean oil chart is back above the green 50 DMA and my target from March or April of 80.86.

This looks bullish to me.



DEC Oil is making new highs.




Soybeans making new highs




NOV Soybeans making new highs also


Will Canola follow?

[Rareearth]

Its difficult to be bearish canola when:
- canola has acre issues ( acres not seeded to wet issues vs acres seeded canola only crop that can be seeded)
- canola has production issues(drought to extreme wet/disease)
- europe canola strong prices, French droughty
- palm oil export restrictions
- low stocks
- south america beans dryness
- usa markets still up and bullish all three beans/meal and oil at the same time

Might as well throw in flea beetle issues

[furrowtickler]

Its difficult to be bearish canola when:
- canola has acre issues ( acres not seeded to wet issues vs acres seeded canola only crop that can be seeded)
- canola has production issues(drought to extreme wet/disease)
- europe canola strong prices, French droughty
- palm oil export restrictions
- low stocks
- south america beans dryness
- usa markets still up and bullish all three beans/meal and oil at the same time

Might as well throw in flea beetle issues

And frost , some areas 4 times last 7 to 8 days