Energies / Bio-Diesel Prices Break

[furrowtickler]

They say that the lumber market is typically one year forward looking. The market is expecting housing starts and the economy to be on the way up within a year.
Apparently has a good track record.

Interest rates better drop in half before that happens?

[errolanderson]

Everything in the red (commodities / equities) ahead of Powell rate hike announcement today.

Market is telling central bankers clearly . . . 'knock it off' with your rate hikes. You are killing business and the overall economy. This could be the Powell Bomb-out day . . . we'll all know soon.

Central bank policy terrible, only reactionary, no forward thinking.

[errolanderson]

Natural gas price AECO storage hub price Suffield now around $2.90 per gigajoule.

Nat gas futures from $2.50 to $10, back to $2.50 per MMBTU in just 22 months.

[errolanderson]

It's a recession and energy markets are in sick bay . . . .

Good news; Diesel prices continue to slide.

Canola standing tall, considering the fallout across energies. Corn drifting gradually lower on ethanol weakness.

[errolanderson]

You can’t give away natural gas in Europe right now, let alone try to sell it. Crude oil traders must be taking note.

[errolanderson]

Diesel prices continue to tank.

Futures down 15% since new year. Recent futures $3.40 per gallon to $2.80 per gallon this week. Major longterm support seen @ $2 per gallon.

Media hasn’t said much about this, guess it’s not news . . . .

[biglentil]

Markets never move in a straight line. I find Elliot waves useful. The rate hikes are a bandaid over a flesh wound. Dedollarization is moving right along with the latest development being the rollout of Sepam an alternative system to Swift to wire funds outside the dollar. If we think of the structural shift away from 40 years of low interest rate policy ending shortly after the March 2020 crash being the beginning of steep CPI increases and Elliot wave one. Then the current reprieve we are seeing in cpi is wave 2. I will be waiting for confirmation in the topping out of the DXY before entering new longs in commodities in anticipation of wave 3. In wave 3 we could see oil go to $200+ in the next few years. If we see a march 2020 style crash, back the truck up. The goal after all is to buy low and sell high.

[biglentil]

Even with the mass of immigrants pouring into Canada, not sure how the current housing bubble is sustainable given the departure from real incomes. Sounds like housing prices are beginning to tank in places like Ontario. Like a pendulums swing when markets get stretched far from the mean markets often overshoot in the other direction.

[sumdumguy]

Can we short the Ontario and Vancouver housing market? The chart for Saskatchewan farm land and cash rent since 1980 would look much like the housing market - just saying.

Those low interest rates were just dandy for baby boomers with paid city property - next generation be damned. Our monetary policy sure put the screws to them.

[biglentil]

Can we short the Ontario and Vancouver housing market? The chart for Saskatchewan farm land and cash rent since 1980 would look much like the housing market - just saying.

Those low interest rates were just dandy for baby boomers with paid city property - next generation be damned. Our monetary policy sure put the screws to them.

I heard home prices have already pulled back 40% in parts of Ontario. That puts many homebuyers upside down, and makes walking away from their mortgage look attractive or perhaps necessary. The smart short maybe the banks.

[biglentil]

Nobody want to talk about weakening diesel prices on this energy thread? Reply With Quote

Errol I don't remember you calling for a buy when oil was <$40. Infact wasn't that around the time you started the "Inflation is Dead" thread? Oil was due for a correction after a massive +%300 run, the drop in commodities is inversely correlated to the recent strength we see in the DXY. The long term trend however is not broken. Waiting for the entry point in the breakdown of the DXY before going long commodities once again. Though seeing that very rare tristar hammer doji print on the monthly wti crude is tempting me to start entering now. Could be signalling a very bullish reversal higher.

[Taiga]

Rack price around $1.05 but price at the pump still pushing $2.00. Have not priced farm delivered dyed yet. Well I did but nobody called me back.

[errolanderson]

Full taxed price in Calgary, filled yesterday @ $1.59. Diesel at pump here off about 15% since mid-Jan. This is about the same as the futures pullback.

[wheatking16]

Errol I don't remember you calling for a buy when oil was <$40. Infact wasn't that around the time you started the "Inflation is Dead" thread? Oil was due for a correction after a massive +%300 run, the drop in commodities is inversely correlated to the recent strength we see in the DXY. The long term trend however is not broken. Waiting for the entry point in the breakdown of the DXY before going long commodities once again. Though seeing that very rare tristar hammer doji print on the monthly wti crude is tempting me to start entering now. Could be signalling a very bullish reversal higher. [ATTACH]11967[/ATTACH]

85 and 92 are levels of interest for me.

[Hamloc]

Nobody want to talk about weakening diesel prices on this energy thread? Reply With Quote

Errol as I posted yesterday on the deflation thread. Diesel prices on the internet yesterday by location Three hills $1.799, Edmonton $1.529, Grande Prairie $1.969. Last I looked diesel futures were up today, as was crude oil. As a side note I was charged $6.34 a gigajoule for natural gas for January. Emailed my supplier, wasn’t impressed. Said that is the way it was, supposed to be $3.44 for February, we will see. Carbon tax is $2.62 a gigajoule, this will go up to $3.41 a gigajoule April 1. It will then probably be as high or higher than the value of natural gas. So yes diesel prices have moderated a bit but life still far more expensive than it was 3 years ago!!!! Justin Trudeau won’t be happy until we are all poor in the west!!!