Energies / Bio-Diesel Prices Break

[furrowtickler]

They say that the lumber market is typically one year forward looking. The market is expecting housing starts and the economy to be on the way up within a year.
Apparently has a good track record.

Interest rates better drop in half before that happens?

[errolanderson]

Everything in the red (commodities / equities) ahead of Powell rate hike announcement today.

Market is telling central bankers clearly . . . 'knock it off' with your rate hikes. You are killing business and the overall economy. This could be the Powell Bomb-out day . . . we'll all know soon.

Central bank policy terrible, only reactionary, no forward thinking.

[errolanderson]

Natural gas price AECO storage hub price Suffield now around $2.90 per gigajoule.

Nat gas futures from $2.50 to $10, back to $2.50 per MMBTU in just 22 months.

[errolanderson]

It's a recession and energy markets are in sick bay . . . .

Good news; Diesel prices continue to slide.

Canola standing tall, considering the fallout across energies. Corn drifting gradually lower on ethanol weakness.

[errolanderson]

You can’t give away natural gas in Europe right now, let alone try to sell it. Crude oil traders must be taking note.

[errolanderson]

Diesel prices continue to tank.

Futures down 15% since new year. Recent futures $3.40 per gallon to $2.80 per gallon this week. Major longterm support seen @ $2 per gallon.

Media hasn’t said much about this, guess it’s not news . . . .

[biglentil]

Markets never move in a straight line. I find Elliot waves useful. The rate hikes are a bandaid over a flesh wound. Dedollarization is moving right along with the latest development being the rollout of Sepam an alternative system to Swift to wire funds outside the dollar. If we think of the structural shift away from 40 years of low interest rate policy ending shortly after the March 2020 crash being the beginning of steep CPI increases and Elliot wave one. Then the current reprieve we are seeing in cpi is wave 2. I will be waiting for confirmation in the topping out of the DXY before entering new longs in commodities in anticipation of wave 3. In wave 3 we could see oil go to $200+ in the next few years. If we see a march 2020 style crash, back the truck up. The goal after all is to buy low and sell high.

[biglentil]

Even with the mass of immigrants pouring into Canada, not sure how the current housing bubble is sustainable given the departure from real incomes. Sounds like housing prices are beginning to tank in places like Ontario. Like a pendulums swing when markets get stretched far from the mean markets often overshoot in the other direction.

[sumdumguy]

Can we short the Ontario and Vancouver housing market? The chart for Saskatchewan farm land and cash rent since 1980 would look much like the housing market - just saying.

Those low interest rates were just dandy for baby boomers with paid city property - next generation be damned. Our monetary policy sure put the screws to them.

[biglentil]

Can we short the Ontario and Vancouver housing market? The chart for Saskatchewan farm land and cash rent since 1980 would look much like the housing market - just saying.

Those low interest rates were just dandy for baby boomers with paid city property - next generation be damned. Our monetary policy sure put the screws to them.

I heard home prices have already pulled back 40% in parts of Ontario. That puts many homebuyers upside down, and makes walking away from their mortgage look attractive or perhaps necessary. The smart short maybe the banks.