DEFLATION: Comin-in strong

[blackpowder]

My SO is a single mother and she's not going on any getaways soon. My sister has a one income household for now, and those days are long gone.
How long before mtg defaults?

[Old Cowzilla]

Rent tender today came on sandy soil about 10 miles south of me . $150 /ACRE WAS the winner. All this doom and gloom not slowing guys down yet.

[zeefarmer]

Rumor has a neighbor was offered $1 million/quarter. That would be at least $200k more than anything has sold for. No deflation in sight here

[Crestliner]

The shit will be hitting the fan soon. A fool and his money are soon separated. $1 million individual pieces of equipment $700-1000K land, $150 rent. Give me a break. We are much poorer than you think.
10% interest, $14 Canola, $7 wheat, $10 peas can't carry this industry and support this cost structure. A lot of farmers today are High Cost Producers. The 1000-3000 acre farmer with everything paid for will have more bottom line than a lot of the big swinging *****.
$25 canola and $14 wheat in 2021/21 gave farmers a big windfall that has long been capitalized and spent. Nothing coming behind it in 2023/24 Expect land to start to level, less buyers chasing as the big buyers will get spooked when they finally figure out there is no bottom line.
Gold and land track each other very closely. Look where it's going. Investors can't make sqwat on land investment and when everyone realizes land ain't going up the farmer who is in love with more land will be sitting at the bar by himself on his own picking up the tab. It will be fun to see the investor find renters to give him a meager return, and then get tired and heads for the door.
Things are about to get real soon. A Claas salesman told me that a 40 bushel crop of canola is a poor crop now given the cost of machinery. Wow I thought that was a good average crop, but he needs his customers getting 60 bushel plus to make the semi payment for his $1 million bag of steel and bolts he sells.
Banks will soon have a mortgage housing crisis on its hands and these coupled with farmers having liquidity problems under the crush of huge debt....hope all the smarties on this site are not part of that group and have cash dry to take advantage of the coming carnage.
You don't have to worry about Bill Gates involved in Canadian AG......no money in it for him.....chump change for those guys.

[blackpowder]

Can't say I disagree.
Most prices of rolling stock etc never goes down, just pauses. I have however seen land fall to half for 20 years.
Land ownership will likely consolidate a lot these next one or two generations.
That's not going away. There will be another Gates, or Huang, or Singh.
Capital gains and or inheritance tax will hasten.

[furrowtickler]

I see two scenarios coming
Crest liner is bang on
Or
The few “behind the scenes “ with the big wallets know something most of us don’t .

But something is going to break sooner than later

[Old Cowzilla]

When the ^%@* hit the fan in the 80's after the booming 70's the farms didn't get smaller so what will happen this time ? Salesmen still selling stuff like crazy here and now with the rains fert trucks will be rollin big time.

[ajl]

When the ^%@* hit the fan in the 80's after the booming 70's the farms didn't get smaller so what will happen this time ? Salesmen still selling stuff like crazy here and now with the rains fert trucks will be rollin big time.

Actually many were downsized as well as new start ups came about as assets were once again for sale. I was at a sale near Yorkton around 2006 with 8 combines on it. That was a lot on one sale back in those days. They sold 30 quarters of land on it as well with most of the land going for 30-50K. Seeing quite a few used combines once again but good used older tractors are still somewhat short. Found a combine of interest at a better price point than the other similar machines so checking it out next week. Stuff nearby is sitting unsold with too high asking prices on them. Land auctions are mixed with some going still high and other parcels being discounted. Couple parcels east of Camrose a couple weeks ago sold less than I thought and less than similar land down highway that sold one year ago. Check CLH for those. Bottom line is that shopping around is critical now.

[jazz]

crestliner had a good overview of the situation, but there are a couple things missing.

Farmland during times of inflation is a fantastic hedge going all the way back to Weimar germany. Yes expenses are rising but farmland went up 12% last yr.

In the early 80s, the financial engineering to put inflation back in the bottle would be very hard to repeat now. The govts would break themselves in the process this time. That could still happen to a road kill country like Canada.

And regarding Gates, there have been lots of billionaires buy land, set up a fake ranch and sit on it hundreds of miles from everyone. Gates is the first billionaire I know of to strategically pick out tracts of very productive farmland in 7 different states.

[errolanderson]

An observation as this global financial cycle ends.

All hidden excesses and false support tactics such as QE money printing along with other can kicking events bent on simply buying time to inflate markets away from this massive debt crisis will float to the surface and be exposed. Bankruptcies are exploding, particularly stateside. Stock markets have been artificially supported well past their best before date. Central bank tactics have run out-of-rope. The greed supporting markets is starting to smell (IMO).

What individuals have paid over recent months have no bearing on what’s ahead, including billionaires. There is an ocean of financial waste and greed that is beginning to surface and be exposed for all investors and markets to see.

Realize my opinion does not float well in this forum. My apologies for being so brunt, but this gig is up.

[blackpowder]

Keep it up Erroll.
Seeds of doubt require planting and are good reminders. Often the wealth in real property comes from appreciation. Perhaps time to get out of some.

[biglentil]

Errol a deflationary event would mean the dollar is going to regain purchasing power and therefore provide the opportunity necessary for the central banksters to inflate away once again. Its difficult if not impossible to reconcile the 'Gig is Up' and the dollar is going to regain its purchasing power. If the gig is up the dollar is finito, a complete loss of confindence in the dollars ability to maintain its purchasing power and therefore Weimer style hyperinflation.

[TOM4CWB]

Quantitative Tightening and the liquidity of regional banks in the US… is going to tighten up money supply big time.

China won’t bail out the Western economies this round.

Bloomberg is carrying some very pessimistic people about the situation in the next 6 months…

China, India, SE Asian countries are 70% coal fired electricity generation… the US and Canadian grid… 0.

We are in for a huge reck if we EV everything with out a power source…. Fossil fuels are the only practical solution…

This is going to get obscene and totally insane… we need at least 30 years to transition out of coal and fossil fuels… not 10-20.

Cheers… as we shiver in the cold weather!

Blessings and Wisdom

[Old Cowzilla]

I think the tug of war between lost jobs and aging work force is pretty difficult to predict . Lots of retired people still working not always because they need the money but can't refuse the top up wages and double dipping. Not every house has a loan against it. Wealth transfers ( in the billions ) in the next 20 years. Those kids still living in the basement will be able to move upstairs although I don't think they will be a very productive lot.

[Sodbuster]

Nuclear power is the only way to achieve 0 emissions and our government is not ready to embrace it yet. They can talk all they want about wind and solar but neither is a candidate for base power.