The bullish case

[Old Cowzilla]

😳

So feeder cattle are still in the green so I still have a chance oh and we just got hail on my shitty canola crop a few minutes ago things are gonna change I can feel it

[woodland]

So feeder cattle are still in the green so I still have a chance oh and we just got hail on my shitty canola crop a few minutes ago things are gonna change I can feel it

I’m sure this is da year for feeders to have a nice payday………. Same prediction I’ve had for three years already. Someday I’m gonna beat right……… maybe? ………… possibly? …….. please?

Doing last years canola math my 1,000 pounders this fall should be worth $3,800. My momma always says dream big or go home😎

[jazz]

I follow Zeihan but he went off the rails during covid. Still hasnt realized the westerns vax doesnt work either and Ukraine has already lost the war.

[ajl]

The bear case: bad government intervention in the economy especially during covid has transferred almost all the wealth from the poor to the rich. We now have a situation where billions around the world face significant food insecurity. Alternative food sources, reduction in waste and outright starvation will be the result. This why canola has tanked. Poor folk can't buy $25 canola. Bring interest rates closer to a market price does slow down the wealth transfer from the poor to the rich so it is the right thing to do. I think central banking should be terminated and interest rates set in the market place away from politically motivated intervention. This would result in rates being much higher that they were.

[beaverdam]

Poor folk can't buy $25 canola.

I don't think poor people get to eat canola oil, I thought they ate palm oil or some other highly saturated fat oil. Since when are markets concerned about what poor people can afford? eg: vehicles, milk, gasoline etc.

[furrowtickler]

I don't think poor people get to eat canola oil, I thought they ate palm oil or some other highly saturated fat oil. Since when are markets concerned about what poor people can afford? eg: vehicles, milk, gasoline etc.

It’s not just poor people Jazz , it’s the majority of the middle class now . That’s a huge problem

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It’s not just poor people Jazz , it’s the majority of the middle class now . That’s a huge problem

It is a huge problem.

However, the solution to supply constraints isn't monetary. And crashing the price makes it worse. Now there is less incentive to maximize production, and end users/consumers can afford to buy more.
That applies to energy, and foods and fertilizer and most necessary industrial commodities.

[jazz]

If you are going to have this level of inflation just by global chains breaking, then it makes sense to repatriate your economy. Trump was way ahead of the game.

No more getting cobalt from the Congo.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If you are going to have this level of inflation just by global chains breaking, then it makes sense to repatriate your economy. Trump was way ahead of the game.

No more getting cobalt from the Congo.

And that is why I am not as bearish on the north american consumer as most are. There will be so many job and business opportunities in our own backyards as we repatriate virtually everything, that a skilled worker or even anyone with the ambition to work will be able to ask for whatever they want. Making for a wealthy middle class consumer. And also leading to wage inflation, which will further all other types of inflation. It will be a difficult time to be on a fixed income social program, or retired or unemployed.

I am really optimistic about my kids futures. They will be entering the job market at an ideal time, and their skill set and work ethic puts them head and shoulders above most of their peers, in virtually any field.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I follow Zeihan but he went off the rails during covid. Still hasnt realized the westerns vax doesnt work either and Ukraine has already lost the war.

He definitely is guilty of spreading propaganda. Makes one wonder what the motivation behind that is.

And he seems to let his own politics and wishes get in the way of rational judgements ( just like the rest of us...).

But I don't think that detracts from the value of his broader prognostications, which have been depressingly accurate.

He has gone very quiet on the vax topic, I expect that when you are in the predictions business, admitting a major blunder such as that is not good business.

[Happytrails]

It is a huge problem.

However, the solution to supply constraints isn't monetary. And crashing the price makes it worse. Now there is less incentive to maximize production, and end users/consumers can afford to buy more.
That applies to energy, and foods and fertilizer and most necessary industrial commodities.

The end of abundance is a product of punishing the industrious and rewarding sloth and corruption.

[ajl]

I am very bearish on kid's futures. A baby born today will owe $200K before they utter their first cry. Governments are working hard each day to figure out new ways to steal. Green scams, scamdemics, foreign wars, you name it. There is a huge trend to homesteading again so that one produces little surplus that can attract new taxes. Survival skills: being able to hunt, fish do plumbing, back yard chickens, electrical, and mechanical work for one's self will be paramount. Their will be nobody to trade with as poverty will be the norm. This is what the smart one's will be doing and the dumb will starve. Either way, peak prosperity is now in the rear view mirror.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I am very bearish on kid's futures. A baby born today will owe $200K before they utter their first cry. Governments are working hard each day to figure out new ways to steal. Green scams, scamdemics, foreign wars, you name it. There is a huge trend to homesteading again so that one produces little surplus that can attract new taxes. Survival skills: being able to hunt, fish do plumbing, back yard chickens, electrical, and mechanical work for one's self will be paramount. Their will be nobody to trade with as poverty will be the norm. This is what the smart one's will be doing and the dumb will starve. Either way, peak prosperity is now in the rear view mirror.

I used to have a neighbor, a bit older than myself. Had a good paying job as an equipment operator(when we bothered to go to work), his gorgeous wife had a very good job, and her Dad was very wealthy, so he didn't have to work very much. Bought an acreage in the country and developed it off grid, preparing for the end of the world. They had a kid, and that made him even more depressed about the future this poor kid would face. Last I talked to him, they had moved to house sit her Dad's house for free, sold the acreage. By all outside appearances he had it made, but I've never met a more pessimistic person.


The world has seen peak prosperity, no doubt. But here in North America, we have everything we need to continue to prosper. It might not be comfortable as we transition off the slave labour that globalism has allowed us to use, and we all will have to get used to working a lot harder at least for a while, and the lazy and entitled will get left in the dust. I wouldn't want to be retired, or unable to work. Everything will be more expensive and in short supply, for a few years until everything gets repatriated. But the opportunities will be boundless. IN the meantime, the inflation will erode the value of the government debt and all other debt, while productivity will make any new debt or money printing worthy investments.

Or we could vote the Liberal/NDP and Democrats back in over and over and end up goung down the path you lay out. The political tide appears to be turning.

[sawfly1]

Alberta , how can you pawn off the bad effects of globalization on the left.
It was the rights baby all along.
Not sure how old you are, but the left
we're the only ones opposing it back then.
It was pretty obvious to the left at the start what the downside would be.
And that is exactly what happened.

There were pluses too some I had not considered at the time , myself .
The fact the 3rd world was able to work itself out of abject poverty to be able to afford something more than a bowl of rice. That has helped us farmers tremendously. Billions of new customers
Eating lentils peas ,hogs (feed grain)beer etc.
Another plus was the savings on our tools. cheaper tools made us more productive.
The problem was assuming that global capital gave a crap where and how they made their money.
To Maintain local manufacturing of anything was a socialist subsidy in your minds. No no can't have that, it's way cheaper from China
It is until they have it all , then we are screwed.
The guy on the yacht is not going to give a crap how Joe blow worker in sask is going to make out

[furrowtickler]

Alberta , how can you pawn off the bad effects of globalization on the left.
It was the rights baby all along.
Not sure how old you are, but the left
we're the only ones opposing it back then.
It was pretty obvious to the left at the start what the downside would be.
And that is exactly what happened.

There were pluses too some I had not considered at the time , myself .
The fact the 3rd world was able to work itself out of abject poverty to be able to afford something more than a bowl of rice. That has helped us farmers tremendously. Billions of new customers
Eating lentils peas ,hogs (feed grain)beer etc.
Another plus was the savings on our tools. cheaper tools made us more productive.
The problem was assuming that global capital gave a crap where and how they made their money.
To Maintain local manufacturing of anything was a socialist subsidy in your minds. No no can't have that, it's way cheaper from China
It is until they have it all , then we are screwed.
The guy on the yacht is not going to give a crap how Joe blow worker in sask is going to make out

Well you not wrong , ask Trudeau if he gives a crap …. Absolutely worse than any PM in history