The bullish case

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I follow Zeihan but he went off the rails during covid. Still hasnt realized the westerns vax doesnt work either and Ukraine has already lost the war.

He definitely is guilty of spreading propaganda. Makes one wonder what the motivation behind that is.

And he seems to let his own politics and wishes get in the way of rational judgements ( just like the rest of us...).

But I don't think that detracts from the value of his broader prognostications, which have been depressingly accurate.

He has gone very quiet on the vax topic, I expect that when you are in the predictions business, admitting a major blunder such as that is not good business.

[Happytrails]

It is a huge problem.

However, the solution to supply constraints isn't monetary. And crashing the price makes it worse. Now there is less incentive to maximize production, and end users/consumers can afford to buy more.
That applies to energy, and foods and fertilizer and most necessary industrial commodities.

The end of abundance is a product of punishing the industrious and rewarding sloth and corruption.

[ajl]

I am very bearish on kid's futures. A baby born today will owe $200K before they utter their first cry. Governments are working hard each day to figure out new ways to steal. Green scams, scamdemics, foreign wars, you name it. There is a huge trend to homesteading again so that one produces little surplus that can attract new taxes. Survival skills: being able to hunt, fish do plumbing, back yard chickens, electrical, and mechanical work for one's self will be paramount. Their will be nobody to trade with as poverty will be the norm. This is what the smart one's will be doing and the dumb will starve. Either way, peak prosperity is now in the rear view mirror.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I am very bearish on kid's futures. A baby born today will owe $200K before they utter their first cry. Governments are working hard each day to figure out new ways to steal. Green scams, scamdemics, foreign wars, you name it. There is a huge trend to homesteading again so that one produces little surplus that can attract new taxes. Survival skills: being able to hunt, fish do plumbing, back yard chickens, electrical, and mechanical work for one's self will be paramount. Their will be nobody to trade with as poverty will be the norm. This is what the smart one's will be doing and the dumb will starve. Either way, peak prosperity is now in the rear view mirror.

I used to have a neighbor, a bit older than myself. Had a good paying job as an equipment operator(when we bothered to go to work), his gorgeous wife had a very good job, and her Dad was very wealthy, so he didn't have to work very much. Bought an acreage in the country and developed it off grid, preparing for the end of the world. They had a kid, and that made him even more depressed about the future this poor kid would face. Last I talked to him, they had moved to house sit her Dad's house for free, sold the acreage. By all outside appearances he had it made, but I've never met a more pessimistic person.


The world has seen peak prosperity, no doubt. But here in North America, we have everything we need to continue to prosper. It might not be comfortable as we transition off the slave labour that globalism has allowed us to use, and we all will have to get used to working a lot harder at least for a while, and the lazy and entitled will get left in the dust. I wouldn't want to be retired, or unable to work. Everything will be more expensive and in short supply, for a few years until everything gets repatriated. But the opportunities will be boundless. IN the meantime, the inflation will erode the value of the government debt and all other debt, while productivity will make any new debt or money printing worthy investments.

Or we could vote the Liberal/NDP and Democrats back in over and over and end up goung down the path you lay out. The political tide appears to be turning.

[sawfly1]

Alberta , how can you pawn off the bad effects of globalization on the left.
It was the rights baby all along.
Not sure how old you are, but the left
we're the only ones opposing it back then.
It was pretty obvious to the left at the start what the downside would be.
And that is exactly what happened.

There were pluses too some I had not considered at the time , myself .
The fact the 3rd world was able to work itself out of abject poverty to be able to afford something more than a bowl of rice. That has helped us farmers tremendously. Billions of new customers
Eating lentils peas ,hogs (feed grain)beer etc.
Another plus was the savings on our tools. cheaper tools made us more productive.
The problem was assuming that global capital gave a crap where and how they made their money.
To Maintain local manufacturing of anything was a socialist subsidy in your minds. No no can't have that, it's way cheaper from China
It is until they have it all , then we are screwed.
The guy on the yacht is not going to give a crap how Joe blow worker in sask is going to make out

[furrowtickler]

Alberta , how can you pawn off the bad effects of globalization on the left.
It was the rights baby all along.
Not sure how old you are, but the left
we're the only ones opposing it back then.
It was pretty obvious to the left at the start what the downside would be.
And that is exactly what happened.

There were pluses too some I had not considered at the time , myself .
The fact the 3rd world was able to work itself out of abject poverty to be able to afford something more than a bowl of rice. That has helped us farmers tremendously. Billions of new customers
Eating lentils peas ,hogs (feed grain)beer etc.
Another plus was the savings on our tools. cheaper tools made us more productive.
The problem was assuming that global capital gave a crap where and how they made their money.
To Maintain local manufacturing of anything was a socialist subsidy in your minds. No no can't have that, it's way cheaper from China
It is until they have it all , then we are screwed.
The guy on the yacht is not going to give a crap how Joe blow worker in sask is going to make out

Well you not wrong , ask Trudeau if he gives a crap …. Absolutely worse than any PM in history

[dmlfarmer]

globalism is capitalism at its maximum. Buy/build/produce at least cost, no matter where in the world that may be (third world) and focus sales on those willing to pay the most (first world). Minimize taxes by moving head offices to tax havens (Ireland, Caymens etc) to maximize returns to owners/shareholders.

Repatriation is nothing more than a tax on buyers given few first world people are willing to work for the wages currently being paid to third world producers and capitalists have no incentives to increase production costs; especially if demand decreases because of higher prices for goods which is the result of repatriation.

Repatriation is as much a pipedream as trickle down economics is going to make the poor wealthy.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

globalism is capitalism at its maximum. Buy/build/produce at least cost, no matter where in the world that may be (third world) and focus sales on those willing to pay the most (first world). Minimize taxes by moving head offices to tax havens (Ireland, Caymens etc) to maximize returns to owners/shareholders.

Repatriation is nothing more than a tax on buyers given few first world people are willing to work for the wages currently being paid to third world producers and capitalists have no incentives to increase production costs; especially if demand decreases because of higher prices for goods which is the result of repatriation.

Repatriation is as much a pipedream as trickle down economics is going to make the poor wealthy.

The alternative to repatriation is that we go without basically everything we have grown accustomed to. It's not a pipe dream it's not something anyone is wishing or hoping for. It's a necessity given the breakdown of globalization. As we find that we can no longer access lithium or neon or copper or phosphate or virtually any other raw material on the world market, we will have no choice but to develop our own, regardless of cost or environmental cost. Either that or else the industrialized completely.
And in order to pursue those resources domestically, we will need to build the tools and equipment locally to develop them, and we will need the energy Independence and security to do so. And we will do it kicking and screaming and protesting every step of the way In a vain attempt to hold on to the lazy entitled lifestyle we have grown used to when the rest of the world did our dirty and hard work for us. Governments of all stripes will finally have to accept that sending our dirty industries offshore and pretending the environmental and humanitarian impacts don't exist was just a shell game.

[sawfly1]

DML right on. You nailed it.
Those good capitalists need socialist subsidies now to bring them back..
Sure If the check is big enough, they will make something here.
Trudeau, Harper, Mulroney, Bush Clinton Regan it makes no difference, they all answer to the same boss.
For those on the right that hate socialism so much they sure seem to want a lot of it. Block imports , tarrifs, subsidies, etc.
I don't think we should go back to makeing shoes or clothes.
But What we need is a super educated work force ,trades , tech.
( look at the states , dumb is cool)

The savings of automation and stuff have to be spread around , to more than the 1/10 of 1 %1
Not sure what the solution is , but look at Norway .,never kissed big oils ass and now have money to burn

[dmlfarmer]

The alternative to repatriation is that we go without basically everything we have grown accustomed to. It's not a pipe dream it's not something anyone is wishing or hoping for. It's a necessity given the breakdown of globalization. As we find that we can no longer access lithium or neon or copper or phosphate or virtually any other raw material on the world market, we will have no choice but to develop our own, regardless of cost or environmental cost. Either that or else the industrialized completely.
And in order to pursue those resources domestically, we will need to build the tools and equipment locally to develop them, and we will need the energy Independence and security to do so. And we will do it kicking and screaming and protesting every step of the way In a vain attempt to hold on to the lazy entitled lifestyle we have grown used to when the rest of the world did our dirty and hard work for us. Governments of all stripes will finally have to accept that sending our dirty industries offshore and pretending the environmental and humanitarian impacts don't exist was just a shell game.

Interesting views from someone who wants Alberta to separate
How does your anti globalization views coincide with your desire that a province of 4 million will be able to produce all the goods and services in house after it separates from Canada? Where will Alberta get the manpower, investment, and knowledge to build our tractors, and cars, and computers, and tires, and clothes, airplanes, chemicals, pesticides, and everything else that is not made in Alberta now? And on the other side of the coin, why should anyone buy the grains Albertan's grow and cattle they raise if Albertans are so against imports of anything? Globalization is just a derogratory term the right has coopted so they do not have to admit the value of trade.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Well that escalated quickly. Apparently now I am anti-globalization, and I am blaming the left for globalization in the first place. Without ever saying either of those things.

I am simply pointing out the trend that is in place and accelerating quickly due to covid and war in Ukraine and the slow motion train wreck that is China today.
Personally, I think globalization has been a huge benefit globally. And on average, Even though there have been very obvious winners and losers. It has been a great deal for the country who has the world's reserve currency, and anyone who can ride on their coattails such as canada. We don't have to do anything or produce anything, just print dollars and use them to buy the production of slave labor anywhere else in the world. They get to keep the pollution and the environmental degradation and do all the nasty unhealthy inhumane work for us. And we get to pretend it doesn't even happen.
Globalization is why we have had such low inflation for so long. Allowing us to increase our standard of living, while simultaneously improving the standard of living of the world's poorest where even slave labor is better than the subsistence farming they were doing before.
But if Zeihan is right, and so far it sure looks that way, that era is quickly coming to an end. I am pointing out the challenges and opportunities that will leave us with. And as I noted I am optimistic that we will come out of this better than virtually the entire rest of the world. If we don't screw it up. Admittedly, I don't have much faith in either side of the political spectrum not screwing it up.
The political statement I made about voters in my response to ajl, is forward looking not backwards looking. I wasn't blaming any political entity for globalization. First of all I don't think it justifies blame, as I explained above it has been beneficial. And all parties have been responsible for that, left, right, unions, consumers, big business, small business have all contributed to getting us to where we are at. But from what I see at this point, the right seems to be accepting that globalization is coming to an end and we need to bring our vital industries back home for security and economic reasons, let alone survival. The left still seems hell-bent on doubling down on the previous trend. Where we won't have energy security we won't have a business environment or taxes or regulations or energy prices or environmental rules that will allow businesses to move back to where their consumers are. They still think we can appease China and appease Putin and everything will go back the way it was a few short years ago.

And since we are way off topic anyways, in regards to separation. I've never suggested Alberta should go it alone. We will join the US. We being any portions of Canada that have resources, not necessarily following any provincial borders and it may not be voluntary in all cases. There is no other option. The end of globalization will make that even more necessary.
Did either of you watch the video?

[sumdumguy]

DML, do you think Alberta is going to put up with this Eastern BS forever? I sure hope they seriously consider separation. The hateful spite has to end for the good of Albertans.