The bullish case

[Rareearth]

It would be interesting to see the divide based on:
Income levels
Occupation
Age
Ethnicity
Province
Religion

And as always, etc.

[katoe]

alberta will never get the support from voters to separate. This may be wish of some rural albertans but they are vastely out numbered by urban. Best to put energy in keeping the ndp out of power because thats what we will get if the ucp dont get the right leader. in my humble opinion.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

alberta will never get the support from voters to separate. This may be wish of some rural albertans but they are vastely out numbered by urban. Best to put energy in keeping the ndp out of power because thats what we will get if the ucp dont get the right leader. in my humble opinion.

I don't think it comes from within.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I highly recommend watching this interview. Starts out kind of dry, about bonds and interest rates and what direction the fed will go and why.

Same conclusion I've come to, that they need to let inflation run, and keep interest rates low, to spur investment in manufacturing and energy on shore. Sounds like that will be the inevitable outcome, even if it is politically unpopular on the time frame of the election cycle. If you can't watch it all, at least skip to the 32 minute mark, then watch the last ~ 10 minutes, which is somewhat optimistic for North America. Concludes that commodities are the place to be for at least 5 years. Real estate won't crash.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

More examples of input shortages, and price increases cutting production:

From Cuba:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cubas-sugar-harvest-worst-over-century-another-hit-ailing-economy-2022-05-25/

The report, which cited a spokesman for Azcuba, the state-run sugar company, blamed the shortfall primarily on a lack of inputs, including oxygen for sugar production, fertilizers, pesticides, fuel and spare parts for plant machinery.

"The financial factor was among the most influential in the results of the harvest, exacerbated by the intensification of the economic, commercial and financial blockade of the US Government against the island," the Granma report said.

The report said only 37% of the necessary herbicides and pesticides were available for use this season.

And Ukraine, no big surprise, obviously more factors involved here, but cost of capital and shortages of inputs is the common result:

https://www.producer.com/news/ukrainian-farmers-may-have-reached-a-dead-end/

Farmers are running out of money, barely enough to harvest and sow winter crops. Getting a loan at normal interest rates is difficult. At best, you will be offered 30 percent per annum.

Only a crazy person or a farmer driven to the extreme would agree to take such a loan.

Even if you manage to find money somewhere, it is not a fact that you will be able to buy the required amount of diesel fuel.

In Ukraine, for weeks there has been an acute shortage of fuel and huge queues at gas stations. I start every day by trying to find out if they brought gasoline today or not. If I’m lucky, I’ll have to stand for five hours before refuelling in order to pour 10 or 20 litres into the tank of my car. Therefore, my daily transport is a bicycle, like many other Ukrainians.

China is extending their fertilizer export bans

[cuban_assassin]

One has to wonder if grain markets have bottomed now? The bullish case is the markets have over reacted to a decent start to North American crops and have also been caught in the crossfire of the stock market sell off. However the furnace has been turned on high in North America and based on the near term forecast it will remain there throughout the reproductive stage of crops in western Canada which will cost yield. Anyone short of moisture will be hurt even worse. Those of us with lots of drown out crop and late crop it will help dry up the low spots and advance the crop but will sacrifice yield. We have lost 25-30% of our crop to flooding and there is a lot of lost acres in eastern Sask and Manitoba.
With low global stocks and an average overall crop at best produced in North America in 2022 combined with geopolitical issues should we not see a bounce in grain and oilseed markets before harvest?

[bucket]

35+ degree heat is kicking the living shit out of crops around here. You can almost hear the flowers on canola popping if a guy wants to venture out in this heat. Coupled with a 30kmh wind and you have yourself something similar to taking temperatures at the furnaces in Evraz's melt shop.

Mother nature is melting this crop. I do think the bottom is in, but I don't know much.

Could be guys filling their 10bpa contracts with their entire crop, again this year.

I see nothing that can fill a crop with lower subsoil moisture than last year, and a week of these temperatures. 2 inches of rain won't do it.

[ry0972]

Bucket it is the same over on this side of the lake.
Canola that looked not bad last week now looks like a toss-up if its worth harvesting!!
Low spots hanging in but lots of blank spots from the heat.
My later peas and lentils are forming pods now and IF they fill there wont be much there.
Wheat is also burning up on high ground but a couple half inch rains would likely fill the heads that are there.
I am sure there will be single digit yields in the area again this year.
Another week of this heat and some wind and grasshoppers and aphids and low spots may be the only stuff harvested and hope the rest catches snow for next year!!

[sumdumguy]

Where about are you at Ry? It’s so discouraging when the shower lottery dumps 6 inches here and nothing a mile over.

[Landdownunder]

Tad warm in UK apparently 40c the forecast.