The bullish case

[sumdumguy]

Where about are you at Ry? It’s so discouraging when the shower lottery dumps 6 inches here and nothing a mile over.

[Landdownunder]

Tad warm in UK apparently 40c the forecast.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The scenario I described above is occurring all over the world. Just because we managed to bid high enough to secure almost enough inputs, much of the world just isn't capable of competing at these prices.

Here is an example from Romania:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/fertiliser-woes-could-get-worse-e2-80-93-warning/ar-AAZED1A?fromMaestro=true

Hungarian producer Nitrogenmuvek Zrt, which sees grain yields falling 15pc to 20pc this year in a region that includes major European exporters Romania and Poland.

Farmers have cut nutrient usage due to high prices and supply issues, at a time when dryness has also threatened crops. Fertilisers have become more expensive as a rally in natural gas – a crucial feedstock – raised costs and cut output.

None of this helps whatsoever in the short term, as technical selling continues to overwhelm any fundamentals. But in the somewhat longer timeframe, these issues are inescapable. And lower prices for the grains produced is only going to amplify the problems at a time when the market should be doing everything it can to motivate production.

[shtferbrains]

The scenario I described above is occurring all over the world. Just because we managed to bid high enough to secure almost enough inputs, much of the world just isn't capable of competing at these prices.

Here is an example from Romania:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/fertiliser-woes-could-get-worse-e2-80-93-warning/ar-AAZED1A?fromMaestro=true

Hungarian producer Nitrogenmuvek Zrt, which sees grain yields falling 15pc to 20pc this year in a region that includes major European exporters Romania and Poland.

Farmers have cut nutrient usage due to high prices and supply issues, at a time when dryness has also threatened crops. Fertilisers have become more expensive as a rally in natural gas – a crucial feedstock – raised costs and cut output.

None of this helps whatsoever in the short term, as technical selling continues to overwhelm any fundamentals. But in the somewhat longer timeframe, these issues are inescapable. And lower prices for the grains produced is only going to amplify the problems at a time when the market should be doing everything it can to motivate production.

Commodity board all green at the open.

Lots of weather in the fundamentals for the grains.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

We hear a lot about shortage of refinery capacity in North America, and feedstock shortages in Europe. Meanwhile it is also happening all over the world.

Refineries shut down in South Africa. Environmental lunacy partly to blame, as well as supply chain issues:

https://www.news24.com/fin24/Economy/sasol-declares-force-majeure-on-petroleum-products-as-stalled-oil-shipments-shut-down-natref-20220716

That won't make it any easier for South African farmers to put in or harvest a crop, as if they didn't already face enough challenges.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And then there is this:

https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1548780048957771776

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I just recently discovered Shawn Hackett. Too late unfortunately. He had his customers long for the duration of this bull run, and had them out by the peak early this summer. Had now turned back bullish by my read.

Much of his analysis is based on weather, records, and trends and patterns.

Has been predicting a major drought as part of a 100 year cycle in the next couple of years.

https://www.realvision.com/bdesicxmyxwmkrbu

20 year bullish period for the next 20 years.

Somewhat coincides with Armstrong, and zeihan, even if they come at it from different directions.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

More recent videos from Shawn Hackett.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[furrowtickler]

The heat ridge now firmly entrenched in the US plains as predicted 3 weeks ago .
Plus a big area in western Canada drying out and the eastern wet areas are staying very wet
Will be fireworks now , started this morning in the grain markets again

[shtferbrains]

Firmly entrenched heat dome.

Will take a huge sucking low to move that one.

Pasture starting to look dry.
Won't expect much more regrowth without some significant rain showers.

[bucket]

The heat ridge now firmly entrenched in the US plains as predicted 3 weeks ago .
Plus a big area in western Canada drying out and the eastern wet areas are staying very wet
Will be fireworks now , started this morning in the grain markets again

Drying out?????? I missed when it got wet enough to dry out!!!