The bullish case

[cuban_assassin]

One has to wonder if grain markets have bottomed now? The bullish case is the markets have over reacted to a decent start to North American crops and have also been caught in the crossfire of the stock market sell off. However the furnace has been turned on high in North America and based on the near term forecast it will remain there throughout the reproductive stage of crops in western Canada which will cost yield. Anyone short of moisture will be hurt even worse. Those of us with lots of drown out crop and late crop it will help dry up the low spots and advance the crop but will sacrifice yield. We have lost 25-30% of our crop to flooding and there is a lot of lost acres in eastern Sask and Manitoba.
With low global stocks and an average overall crop at best produced in North America in 2022 combined with geopolitical issues should we not see a bounce in grain and oilseed markets before harvest?

[bucket]

35+ degree heat is kicking the living shit out of crops around here. You can almost hear the flowers on canola popping if a guy wants to venture out in this heat. Coupled with a 30kmh wind and you have yourself something similar to taking temperatures at the furnaces in Evraz's melt shop.

Mother nature is melting this crop. I do think the bottom is in, but I don't know much.

Could be guys filling their 10bpa contracts with their entire crop, again this year.

I see nothing that can fill a crop with lower subsoil moisture than last year, and a week of these temperatures. 2 inches of rain won't do it.

[ry0972]

Bucket it is the same over on this side of the lake.
Canola that looked not bad last week now looks like a toss-up if its worth harvesting!!
Low spots hanging in but lots of blank spots from the heat.
My later peas and lentils are forming pods now and IF they fill there wont be much there.
Wheat is also burning up on high ground but a couple half inch rains would likely fill the heads that are there.
I am sure there will be single digit yields in the area again this year.
Another week of this heat and some wind and grasshoppers and aphids and low spots may be the only stuff harvested and hope the rest catches snow for next year!!

[sumdumguy]

Where about are you at Ry? It’s so discouraging when the shower lottery dumps 6 inches here and nothing a mile over.

[Landdownunder]

Tad warm in UK apparently 40c the forecast.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The scenario I described above is occurring all over the world. Just because we managed to bid high enough to secure almost enough inputs, much of the world just isn't capable of competing at these prices.

Here is an example from Romania:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/fertiliser-woes-could-get-worse-e2-80-93-warning/ar-AAZED1A?fromMaestro=true

Hungarian producer Nitrogenmuvek Zrt, which sees grain yields falling 15pc to 20pc this year in a region that includes major European exporters Romania and Poland.

Farmers have cut nutrient usage due to high prices and supply issues, at a time when dryness has also threatened crops. Fertilisers have become more expensive as a rally in natural gas – a crucial feedstock – raised costs and cut output.

None of this helps whatsoever in the short term, as technical selling continues to overwhelm any fundamentals. But in the somewhat longer timeframe, these issues are inescapable. And lower prices for the grains produced is only going to amplify the problems at a time when the market should be doing everything it can to motivate production.

[shtferbrains]

The scenario I described above is occurring all over the world. Just because we managed to bid high enough to secure almost enough inputs, much of the world just isn't capable of competing at these prices.

Here is an example from Romania:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/fertiliser-woes-could-get-worse-e2-80-93-warning/ar-AAZED1A?fromMaestro=true

Hungarian producer Nitrogenmuvek Zrt, which sees grain yields falling 15pc to 20pc this year in a region that includes major European exporters Romania and Poland.

Farmers have cut nutrient usage due to high prices and supply issues, at a time when dryness has also threatened crops. Fertilisers have become more expensive as a rally in natural gas – a crucial feedstock – raised costs and cut output.

None of this helps whatsoever in the short term, as technical selling continues to overwhelm any fundamentals. But in the somewhat longer timeframe, these issues are inescapable. And lower prices for the grains produced is only going to amplify the problems at a time when the market should be doing everything it can to motivate production.

Commodity board all green at the open.

Lots of weather in the fundamentals for the grains.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

We hear a lot about shortage of refinery capacity in North America, and feedstock shortages in Europe. Meanwhile it is also happening all over the world.

Refineries shut down in South Africa. Environmental lunacy partly to blame, as well as supply chain issues:

https://www.news24.com/fin24/Economy/sasol-declares-force-majeure-on-petroleum-products-as-stalled-oil-shipments-shut-down-natref-20220716

That won't make it any easier for South African farmers to put in or harvest a crop, as if they didn't already face enough challenges.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And then there is this:

https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1548780048957771776

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I just recently discovered Shawn Hackett. Too late unfortunately. He had his customers long for the duration of this bull run, and had them out by the peak early this summer. Had now turned back bullish by my read.

Much of his analysis is based on weather, records, and trends and patterns.

Has been predicting a major drought as part of a 100 year cycle in the next couple of years.

https://www.realvision.com/bdesicxmyxwmkrbu

20 year bullish period for the next 20 years.

Somewhat coincides with Armstrong, and zeihan, even if they come at it from different directions.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

More recent videos from Shawn Hackett.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

[furrowtickler]

The heat ridge now firmly entrenched in the US plains as predicted 3 weeks ago .
Plus a big area in western Canada drying out and the eastern wet areas are staying very wet
Will be fireworks now , started this morning in the grain markets again

[shtferbrains]

Firmly entrenched heat dome.

Will take a huge sucking low to move that one.

Pasture starting to look dry.
Won't expect much more regrowth without some significant rain showers.

[bucket]

The heat ridge now firmly entrenched in the US plains as predicted 3 weeks ago .
Plus a big area in western Canada drying out and the eastern wet areas are staying very wet
Will be fireworks now , started this morning in the grain markets again

Drying out?????? I missed when it got wet enough to dry out!!!