The bullish case

[TOM4CWB]

Drying out?????? I missed when it got wet enough to dry out!!!

Our problems are small in comparison to Ukraine;
This from RRFN:

“USDA Lowers Forecast for Ukrainian Wheat Production – The Ukrainian crop is estimated at 19.5 million tons. That’s 13 million tons below last year and down 2 million tons from last month’s estimate. USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer says satellite images were used to come up with that number. “You can see progress where the conflict is not occurring and you can see damage to the crops in areas in the border region between the occupied zone and the Ukrainian-held zone; there’s fields that are burned and action not taking place simply because it is not safe to do it.”

[furrowtickler]

Drying out?????? I missed when it got wet enough to dry out!!!

Yes , most areas in West Central Sask in same boat . A continuation of drought from last year .

[WiltonRanch]

Yes , most areas in West Central Sask in same boat . A continuation of drought from last year .

We’re north enough to be in about the sweet spot but I worry canola is being pushed along too fast by the heat. Earlier seeded is starting to pod. Far as I’m concerned it’s a bit too early but the weed fools you.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Reuters article about ukraine, according to this article, due to storage being full or destroyed and no way to export, the glut has driven the prices Farmers receive down to $110 per tone for wheat, if they can find anyone to take it. Doubtful that they will be seeding winter crops , which isn't far away, with those economics.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-grain-storage-crisis-hits-home-farmers-harvest-new-crops-2022-07-19/

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Another example of high input prices affecting crop decisions worldwide. Considering that Argentina is now facing 70% interest rates, borrowing money for inputs it's not a decision that would be taken lightly. And they import virtually all of their fertilizer. That gets expensive with a collapsing currency.

Karen Braun
@kannbwx
· 5h
🇦🇷#Argentina's #corn plantings will fall 2.6% in 2022/23 on low soil moisture and lower profitability (inputs are high and #soybeans are cheaper to plant), according to Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. Planting usually starts in Sept. and steadily progresses through January.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From Ukraine:.
He notes another area to watch is the wheat market in the Ukraine and whether or not they'll be able to put in that fall rye/winter wheat crop."

"There are some significant financial hurdles for farmers there, let alone the labor challenges, the fuel challenges, and the crop input availability? So what Ukrainian farmers are basically facing in terms of how I'm understanding in talking to my contacts in Europe is that it's almost unprofitable in a lot of places to for them to seed fall barley or fall wheat."

https://discovermoosejaw.com/articles/bullish-wheat-market-ahead

Ukraine had excess nitrogen fertilizer capacity before the war. But most of that was located in the East or along the coast so has been shut down. And it all relies on Russian gas. I can't find out if any has restarted, or if they can access the gas to make the fertilizer.
They import almost all of the other fertilizers, from Belarus and Russia of course.
Even If they had the credit or the funds, and the optimism to plant fall crops, it's not clear where the inputs would come from. Europe certainly isn't in a position to supply them. And the grain corridor is supposedly only for grain exports, not imports.

[jazz]

.

[TSIPP]

I guess we’ll just eat crickets.

[TSIPP]

I wonder what a cricket ranch is worth? I bet I’d get some cash from Trudeau if I was a cricket rancher.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Prof. Michael Tanchum
@michaeltanchum
·
9h
🇵🇱⚠️#BREAKING Azoty, #Poland's biggest chemicals co. and #EU's second largest producer of mineral fertilizers stopped production of nitrogen #fertilizers and cut output of ammonia because of record #natgas prices.

[Guest]

hopefully everyone smart enough to use bags and not dump grain at these happy hour prices
no matter what any educated feller tells you , you cannot grow grain at those prices with these gouging inputs
there are a lot of production problems in some very big places

[AlbertaFarmer5]

hopefully everyone smart enough to use bags and not dump grain at these happy hour prices
no matter what any educated feller tells you , you cannot grow grain at those prices with these gouging inputs
there are a lot of production problems in some very big places

Yesterday a broker sent me the price of his last sale on feed wheat. I declined, planning to store the remainder into new crop. Today, tentative offer of a full dollar higher.
Buyers have been living hand to mouth, and rightfully so, since every day has been cheaper than the last. But when they do accept that the bottom is behind us, and they return to the market, it could get exciting, even with harvest pressure. There is more than enough to go around in Western Canada, but they still have to bid enough to keep it from being exported.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Felis Commodities
@FelisGlobal
·
58m
🇺🇦🇷🇺

📌Globally, 15% of the ammonia trade remains offline because of the Russia-Ukraine war. The winter heating season — and increased natural gas demand — could extend nitrogen’s price spike

There often seems to be a correlation between higher grain prices resulting in higher fertilizer prices. And we could argue all day long about if that is justified, or just price gouging.
But the opposite correlation, with higher fertilizer prices eventually leading to higher grain prices, cannot be denied, at least in this environment. In various parts of the world, these prices are prohibitive and fertilizer is not being applied. The supply really does not exist to cover all the acres at the rates that were being used two years ago. Musical chairs, and there aren't enough chairs. It may not be the immediate correlation we see when it's the other way around, but this one is for real.

[WiltonRanch]

Felis Commodities
@FelisGlobal
·
58m
🇺🇦🇷🇺

📌Globally, 15% of the ammonia trade remains offline because of the Russia-Ukraine war. The winter heating season — and increased natural gas demand — could extend nitrogen’s price spike

There often seems to be a correlation between higher grain prices resulting in higher fertilizer prices. And we could argue all day long about if that is justified, or just price gouging.
But the opposite correlation, with higher fertilizer prices eventually leading to higher grain prices, cannot be denied, at least in this environment. In various parts of the world, these prices are prohibitive and fertilizer is not being applied. The supply really does not exist to cover all the acres at the rates that were being used two years ago. Musical chairs, and there aren't enough chairs. It may not be the immediate correlation we see when it's the other way around, but this one is for real.

How much of the fertilizer used in places like India is subsidized by the government to secure food supply? China I think there is some sort of price controls as well but they make all their own from coal, and they have a good supply of phos. India from what I read uses lots of fertilizer as their soils are pooped from thousands of years of farming. Like you stated there will be poorer countries that will cut back or use none and they don’t have the luxury of new rich soil that produces much seeded neat.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-corn-planting-stalled-great-drought-fears-rise-2022-09-15/
Driest start to planting in 30 years in Argentina. Breaking records going back to the 30s. Not quite clear how much of recent strength in prices was to do with Argentina conditions, or if that is yet to come?