Grain prices

[makar]

Why is it tanking?

[furrowtickler]

Good question…

[furrowtickler]

[TOM4CWB]

Why is it tanking?

Decent crops coming in most of North America... US Fed/Biden on kamikaze course to tank the US economy to raise interest rates... to lower inflation... which won't happen while oil prices remain high[$90 or more] [to cut fossil fuel consumption and save the planet] .

I would be surprised if there is not a significant retracement back up next week... perhaps 5-20% before further downward pressure... another 20% down from here to harvest... unless a major drought cuts US production [cut in production likely approx. sliding pressure to increase in the upward retracement of grains]

If the Ukraine's grain gets released on to the global markets... easy 20% further downward pressure.

Cheers, Putin isn't finished his shenanigans yet...I doubt, yet he is trying to spin this into a 'hero' save hungry poor folk trick...after he cashes in his grain...

[TOM4CWB]

Decent crops coming in most of North America... US Fed/Biden on kamikaze course to tank the US economy to raise interest rates... to lower inflation... which won't happen while oil prices remain high[$90 or more] [to cut fossil fuel consumption and save the planet] .

I would be surprised if there is not a significant retracement back up next week... perhaps 5-20% before further downward pressure... another 20% down from here to harvest... unless a major drought cuts US production [cut in production likely approx. sliding pressure to increase in the upward retracement of grains]

If the Ukraine's grain gets released on to the global markets... easy 20% further downward pressure.

Cheers, Putin isn't finished his shenanigans yet...I doubt, yet he is trying to spin this into a 'hero' save hungry poor folk trick...after he cashes in his grain...

I heard an interesting observation today, as prices drop the volatility factor [eg. premiums for options] drops as well... prices going up increases the volatility factor cost of options.

[Landdownunder]

Agree with last paragraph tom

[TOM4CWB]

Decent crops coming in most of North America... US Fed/Biden on kamikaze course to tank the US economy to raise interest rates... to lower inflation... which won't happen while oil prices remain high[$90 or more] [to cut fossil fuel consumption and save the planet] .

I would be surprised if there is not a significant retracement back up next week... perhaps 5-20% before further downward pressure... another 20% down from here to harvest... unless a major drought cuts US production [cut in production likely approx. sliding pressure to increase in the upward retracement of grains]

If the Ukraine's grain gets released on to the global markets... easy 20% further downward pressure.

Cheers, Putin isn't finished his shenanigans yet...I doubt, yet he is trying to spin this into a 'hero' save hungry poor folk trick...after he cashes in his grain...

Nov22 Canola hit hard [$832] overnight... Canola trades today while US grains are closed.

[TOM4CWB]

Nov22 Canola hit hard [$832] overnight... Canola trades today while US grains are closed.

Just watching BNN, estimated cost for reconstruction of Ukraine is 500-1 Trillion Euros from the Russian invasion and war.

This cost, the uncertainty of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian agriculture, the lock down of 20million tonnes of wheat, with corn, sunflower and the poultry, milk, besides the destruction of the primary industry in eastern Ukraine… will effect the global economy for decades to come.

Putin’s disrespect for sovereignty of national borders, has disrupted the global civilization…

Inflation in Turkey is 79% on a yearly rate.

How can we escape a radical global economic shock, with these problems over hanging our economies, besides the New Green Deal that will cost Trillions, is difficult to fathom.

These issues are leading to more disruptive economic problems than the 2008 economic crisis, recession is virtually guaranteed, Canada being more severely affected than the US.

[Partners]

Canola down 1 a bushel..
Crop insurance numbers are getting close..WTF..

[jazz]

Canola down 1 a bushel..
Crop insurance numbers are getting close..WTF..

Ukraine ceasefire talks, funds coming out of commodities going to long bonds and equities.

Zero to do with supply and demand, that wont come into play until after harvest.

[Partners]

After harvest usually slow to sink in..
Jan of 23..
Our 23.20 contract for Oct that we did looked stupid at the time..

[poorboy]

Lumber futures have been yoyoing up and down 50% each way through the pandemic as funds buy in or sell out. Grains probably have lots of yoyo left in them yet.

[Partners]

Down another dollar.
19 days to go and we will be at zero..

[furrowtickler]

Down another dollar.
19 days to go and we will be at zero..

For every decent canola field in this area there is one like this …


And we are in a “good area”
Lots of issues out there

No idea why that’s upside down

[Goodtime]

Canola is a long way from the bin in our area, may not matter if it is $8 or $30 per bushel.