What is the Crush Capacity

[rain]

Does anyone know the Crush Capacity of Canabra in Leth. and ADM in Lloyminster. Who has the biggest plant in Western Canada?

[charliep]

Did some checking with sources and came up with the following numbers (annual crush based on 330 days). ADM/Lloydminster - 650,000 tonnes. Canbra/Lethbridge - 390,000 tonnes. Bunge/Ft. Sastchewan - 230,000 tonnes. Total Canadian capacity (east and west) 4 MMT. ADM/Lloydminster and Cargill/Clavet, SK have similar capacity and are the largest. My thoughts are these number are conservative. All companies have been busy identifying capacity constraints and modifying their plants to improve efficiency.

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight where we are on canola crush/exports.

Canadian crush during first 41 weeks of the crop year - 2.66 MMT (used Canadian Oilseed Processors Association numbers - http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/6/2/55985926.html). A year ago, crush was 1.72 MMT over the same period. To achieve a 3.2 MMT crush (my number from http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd5325?opendocument -other analysts will be different), crush would have to average 50,000 tonnes per week for the remainder of the crop year. Average has been in the 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes per week area. The only fly in the ointment is when the domestic crushers take their summer maintenance shutdowns.

Canadian canola exports to date have been about 3 MMT, up from 1.8 MMT a year ago. See http://grainscanada.gc.ca/pubs/grainstats/gsw_2-e.asp My export number is 3.3 MMT although I have to admit to being at risk of being low. To achieve this level of exports, Canada has to keep exports at about 30,000 tonnes per week.

My thoughts are that canola carryovers will be tight this summer (500,000 to 600,000 tonnes). That means the system will be dependent on crop size and how soon early seeded canola becomes available (read how much August harvest). A very interesting summer ahead.