Upcoming Heat

[helmsdale]

Latest runs of GFS 2m AGL temperature have a significant heat dome building basically between the Rockies and the Mississippi and into the spring wheat areas of North and South Dakota as well as Nebraska and a fair amount of the northern corn belt. Looks like upwards of 2 weeks worth of 90 to as high as 110+. Little to no sig precip forecast as well (east of the mississippi at least).

If that heat swells north, I know I'll personally be looking at something similar to last year. Although the heat would be 2 weeks behind last year, my crop is at about the same stage. Last year by heading, I had 4.8" of fairly general moisture with reasonable subsoil moisture, this year anywhere from 2.5" to 5" with next to no subsoil moisture. Flowering and filling could be painful, and I'm guessing that a significant portion of Eastern Montana, as well as Northern SD and most all of ND are likely behind schedule with all the April moisture that trained through there.

Spring wheat crop is a long ways from the bin, and this could possibly reinvigorate the market as of late.

[TOM4CWB]

Latest runs of GFS 2m AGL temperature have a significant heat dome building basically between the Rockies and the Mississippi and into the spring wheat areas of North and South Dakota as well as Nebraska and a fair amount of the northern corn belt. Looks like upwards of 2 weeks worth of 90 to as high as 110+. Little to no sig precip forecast as well (east of the mississippi at least).

If that heat swells north, I know I'll personally be looking at something similar to last year. Although the heat would be 2 weeks behind last year, my crop is at about the same stage. Last year by heading, I had 4.8" of fairly general moisture with reasonable subsoil moisture, this year anywhere from 2.5" to 5" with next to no subsoil moisture. Flowering and filling could be painful, and I'm guessing that a significant portion of Eastern Montana, as well as Northern SD and most all of ND are likely behind schedule with all the April moisture that trained through there.

Spring wheat crop is a long ways from the bin, and this could possibly reinvigorate the market as of late.

Weekly to first week of August in progression

[helmsdale]

[AlbertaFarmer5]

While I send my sincerest regards for your situation Helmsdale, out here on the western fringe, any heat and dryness would be a godsend right now. Everything is so far behind, It has just been continuously cold and wet. I've been starting to panic about the outcome. For myself at least, a lot will have to go right for the rest of the season for this not to be a disaster.

[poorboy]

Could get interesting if it turns dry and hot. I have had 8” of rain since june 1st and digging post holes yesterday it is dry 4’ down.

Totally surprised me, guess the crop sucked up a lot of it.

[helmsdale]

Could get interesting if it turns dry and hot. I have had 8” of rain since june 1st and digging post holes yesterday it is dry 4’ down.

Totally surprised me, guess the crop sucked up a lot of it.

At least so far, it looks like the majority of western canada will be "on the edge" of the heat plume. This has the potential to be a multi-pronged positive for at least the majority in western Canada. There will be small places that the heat will hurt, but I'm hoping that the come and go nature of the heat will mean my area in particular wont be subjected to multi-day events breaking 85 (30C) which should allow the crop to recover somewhat.

For the wetter cooler areas, this will certainly be a net positive as the crop will have an opportunity get some legs and hopefully advance it along!

The other positive (at least for the Canadian Prairies) is the potential for a market run-up based on drought fears and resultant yield shortfalls south of the 49th both for spring seeded cereals and later season corn/beans. 10+ days of 95+ starting this friday (if it materializes) for the American breadbasket would do significant damage even to areas that have a decent looking crop. Models will likely temper somewhat, but high temps in the 105-115 neighborhood with overnight lows in the high 70s will not be good!

[jazz]

So it will be a break from Ukraine, covid and monkey pox to really talk up some climate hysteria.

[Guest]

Could get interesting if it turns dry and hot. I have had 8” of rain since june 1st and digging post holes yesterday it is dry 4’ down.

Totally surprised me, guess the crop sucked up a lot of it.

Some said areas in places were short 24”

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Some said areas in places were short 24”

Some of the maps Larry posted last summer indicated that much of the prairies is in a multi year moisture deficit. As in 10's of inches over a few years if I remember right?

[sumdumguy]

So it will be a break from Ukraine, covid and monkey pox to really talk up some climate hysteria.

[ATTACH]10737[/ATTACH]

We travelled Europe in about 2016. Temps were over 40 for the entire time.

[furrowtickler]

Depends on what weather source your looking at
The woke weather channel’s that push global warming have high temperatures
Reliable sources that focus on weather show a few hot days but mostly normal to just slightly above normal the next ten days
Time will tell , but most of us know what ones will be right after 10 days .

[jazz]

Drove out around 5 am to pick up a header, got home just after lunch. Laid down down a nap in the aft. Low an behold, 10 minutes into my slumber I get a sasktel tornado warning. Tornado in your area, take cover.

Well holy hell, jump up run to the window, suns shining and some light clouds around.

Turns out tornado was in Truax which is fricken 90 minute drive away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKrlaRy4wFo

[furrowtickler]

Canadian prarie weather this week

https://youtu.be/9f-DN1CiNNI