who contracted new crop?

[Ronski]

I contracted 35% of my canola at 23 bucks, and have Nov put options on 40 % at 750. Sure hope there is a bounce and they expire worthless.
I harvest to much feed wheat to contract HRS but did buy Dec 6.50 corn puts for 20% (seems to track feed prices better... I think?).

I am kicking myself for not doing more (especially the wheat) but I barely filled my canola contracts last year and have a neighbor that had to write a big cheque after a hail storm.

What do you guys think? Has the ship sailed and we are grinding down to 7 dollar wheat again or is there hope?
Here in central Alberta crops look very good but heat/hail/frost/6 weeks of rain at harvest can fix that.

[TOM4CWB]

I contracted 35% of my canola at 23 bucks, and have Nov put options on 40 % at 750. Sure hope there is a bounce and they expire worthless.
I harvest to much feed wheat to contract HRS but did buy Dec 6.50 corn puts for 20% (seems to track feed prices better... I think?).

I am kicking myself for not doing more (especially the wheat) but I barely filled my canola contracts last year and have a neighbor that had to write a big cheque after a hail storm.

What do you guys think? Has the ship sailed and we are grinding down to 7 dollar wheat again or is there hope?
Here in central Alberta crops look very good but heat/hail/frost/6 weeks of rain at harvest can fix that.

30% peas,
40% Nexera Canola, Direct Contracted.
Puts [deep in money now] cover the rest of an average wheat and Canola crop. Calls to cover fuel and 30% of crop if it stops raining. Canola and wheat could make 10 year average... peas 90% perhaps. Fungicide just being completed on everything now. Looking for good basis on wheat for fall delivery... if it becomes available.

[jazz]

Didnt book any and usually dont. Too much uncertainty around this yr.

I suspect with interest rates tightening, you wont see those commodity prices again.

[Partners]

Didn't do much.
But $$$ sure looks good now on the stuff we did..

[SASKFARMER]

Did a half mill for fall delivery

Peas
Small amount cAnola

Wheat

[bucket]

30 degrees for 14 days doesn't bode well for estimating crop yield.

[blackpowder]

60 -70% presold.
Specialty crops the exception.
Selling some 2023 also.
Call spreads on last bit to cover contract if hail.
Highs are in for now I feel.
Average is higher.
Volatility is the take-home looking forward. Larger, faster swings.
Affecting costs as well.
Do your homework these days.

[wmoebis]

If prices trend downward is there ways for buyers to get out of contracts and Visa Versa? If yes what/who do farmers use to help negotiate contracts?

[Sheepwheat]

Wow. This is truly nobody’s business. You guys make me chuckle a bit inside.

[blackpowder]

Wow. This is truly nobody’s business. You guys make me chuckle a bit inside.

Agreed, but thinking grain cos have more sophisticated information and price parameters than Agriville. No trader in a world commodity market hedges based on hear say.
Bragging, sharing, learning, at least it's farmer to farmer.

[Sheepwheat]

Agreed, but thinking grain cos have more sophisticated information and price parameters than Agriville. No trader in a world commodity market hedges based on hear say.
Bragging, sharing, learning, at least it's farmer to farmer.

It’s not really that I think many buyers watch and glean from here, their marketing plans. It’s more just funny. Because I think of commodity ag so differently than I used to when I was in the thick of it. It always was, and always will be a wag as to when to pull the trigger. It was the thing about grain farming other than the weather and delivery failures that drove me nearly around the bend. It literally gave me mental issues. I only recently have come to realize that. Being a price taker, was Just another thing on top of dozens of other things that I had absolutely zero control over. I like to be in control. Lol

I will repeat. You guys who have the balls to tackle this kind of farming have my greatest respect. Because I couldn’t take it anymore, and it takes nerves of steel and a positive mindset, and a lot of good luck to stay sane.

Back to new crop pricing,

I know what each lamb will bring, and I know it will not bring a lower price than last year. I know that next year, it will bring the exact same price as this year, give or take a dollar a lb., if we need to boost our price to match grocery inflation.

[TOM4CWB]

It’s not really that I think many buyers watch and glean from here, their marketing plans. It’s more just funny. Because I think of commodity ag so differently than I used to when I was in the thick of it. It always was, and always will be a wag as to when to pull the trigger. It was the thing about grain farming other than the weather and delivery failures that drove me nearly around the bend. It literally gave me mental issues. I only recently have come to realize that. Being a price taker, was Just another thing on top of dozens of other things that I had absolutely zero control over. I like to be in control. Lol

I will repeat. You guys who have the balls to tackle this kind of farming have my greatest respect. Because I couldn’t take it anymore, and it takes nerves of steel and a positive mindset, and a lot of good luck to stay sane.

Back to new crop pricing,

I know what each lamb will bring, and I know it will not bring a lower price than last year. I know that next year, it will bring the exact same price as this year, give or take a dollar a lb., if we need to boost our price to match grocery inflation.

Sad this morning in the US lamb has dropped now below the year average, as the recession takes hold, disposable income is dropping… and lamb is the first meat dropped and replaced with protein like chicken.

All the more power to you Sheepwheat if you can direct market to long term clients… just like us growing Nexera for Bunge for 20 years… and supplying others with specialty seed for 40 years!

Blessings and Salutations!

Hockley Seed wheat


B1030N RR planted May 15

[furrowtickler]

We did some , and right now wish we could do more . But after last year the buy outs and near zero sub soil moisture just can’t do more .
One local line company was out yesterday, and we directly asked the “what if” ……. zero protection for the grower .
This is a time for us to get it in the bin , good or not , then let them come buy it for the first time in many years if it turns out . Other areas may be different. But here was extremely costly to many farms last fall . The only ones that got burnt were farmers .
The elevators are empty , they need grain bad , just remember that .

[GALAXIE500]

My opinion , but around here nothing is priced until it is in the bin. Living in a dry more often than wet area will do that. I know there are acts of God clauses and all that , but I just prefer to wait until after harvest.

Sure hoping I have something in my bins other than hot air this year!

[jamesb]

As per normal we presell a few bu per acre for movement off the combine. In my parts it can be hard to find delivery spots for cash flow in the fall at times as most trains will be full of presold production. After last year we sold less canola than normal but bought way more put options than normal. They are way in the money at this point. I have to figure out a plan that if I sell the option and take profits I should be ready to price the physical canola to offset it. I doubt prices will get back to this past years highs but as of this week there is no sure crop in a lot of the US and Canada. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see a price rebound of some measure. There is no building of stocks in the world IMO this year. There are lot of places in the US that the crop is quite uncertain. Take a look at the most recent US drought map.