Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[furrowtickler]

This is a couple texts I got yesterday,

I’ve been hounding my BASF rep for the last 3 weeks as to what is happening with Liberty and Invigor canola costs for this fall. I finally found out about 30 minutes ago that Liberty costs will go up 7% come October 1st. BASF wouldn’t allocate us any Liberty from now until October 1st so all any retail will have to use is any current inventory in stock at this time. There isn’t much Liberty inventory around right now because of the huge glufosinate shortages this year. If you are interested in purchasing some Liberty before we get hit with the 7% increase let me know how much you are looking for and what size you prefer to use and I’ll get you a price on the inventory we still have here. I have not heard what is happening with Invigor canola seed costs yet. I go to Manitoba for an seed/chemical launch next week where I will find out more. I’ll try again to see if I can get seed pricing before next week. Thanks



Just received an email from our Head Office. They were told by BASF that Invigor seed costs will be up 9.1%. BASF has not given us our allocation of Invigor seed yet. Sounds like we should get 100% allocation based off of this past years seed sales. Sounds like they may start off giving us 78% seed allocation because they had some seed production fields hailed out. BASF is working on securing contra production right now. I think at the end of the day we will get lots of seed here. The problem will be getting the right varieties that everyone wants and the fact seed is going up 9.1%. Leave it up to BASF to rip everyone off by raising Liberty & Invigor costs that much. That’s a big increase on both seed and chemical.

Create a “so called” shortage make us buy early and of course pay for something we won’t have until who knows when, and at the end find product readily available. Kind of like when they find extra product in farmers bins that weren’t actually there months ago.
Quite the merry go round system we live in.

There is other liberty canola that’s very very good other than those crooks

[furrowtickler]

Peas off, finish oats today.
Canola sprayed/ swathed.
Wheat mixed bag and stuff sprayed this weekend could be later depending on Sept. Oh well, every year the same in that there is always something different.

Since you mentioned politics.
Had to scream at the radio the farm news I've listened to in months.
Alberta Wheat being interviewed re govt fert cutback intentions.
On and on about how to meet the new regs. How to measure. How to establish guidelines blah blah blah. Like an obedient dog or court eunich.
How about this. Instead of debating how we're gonna get that round peg through a square hole, first a recheck of the concept. How we concluded it even. Did no one stand up and say " this won't fit" ?
Bibeau says non negotiable. So do I!!
When will people just start saying "no". It's like the govt mandating square dildos and butt plugs. And our industry and provincial politicians scrambling to make it work.
How about refusing cause it's wrong?

Agree people who have no clue are pushing a bunch b/s they know nothing about

[LWeber]

. Canola across the board will come in at 21.7 mt.

You are now the high at 21.7 MMT
next is at 21.523 MMT
I'm now 4th in line...

at 21.7 MMT - carry would be 3.3 MMT on July 31/23
that includes 9.5 MMT exports and 10.2 MMT crush.



Here are 10 years of ref points for carry vs price

Carry went from 400K to 1.722 for Jul 31/21 with the last STATSCAN

[blackpowder]

Agree people who have no clue are pushing a bunch b/s they know nothing about

How about claiming back our check offs until our industry lobby "representatives" get the message?
Or electing anti federalist premiers?
I've been sharpening an axe re the grain grower commissions for a while now. We need them but not like this. C u c k olds.

[blackpowder]

Canola here likely just average. No lean. Some wheat could be Norwegian.
Some good average, but some with half head not filled.
Not a scientist but thinking heat stress also delaying normal maturation.
Peas were very good for the year. Oats as a first time and on challenging dirt, I'm pleased, its on target. Both specialty crops largely moving immediately. I see too many acres.
Hay sloughs with water in the bottom a month ago getting cut now.

[goalieguy847]

Hahaa currently sit on one of the grain commissions...not gonna mention which one but im in alberta. Im not overly impressed with what goes on. Just a big shmooze booze cruise ( why would alberta barley need to host their events at the most expensive hotel in alberta?)

As for canola values...

Some of you better double check nh3 price as inputs just went up. Im getting 1800 quotes for this fall. Same bag of canola next spring will be 50$/ bag higher.
Liberty is what now... 17$/ L. Better stick with interline and UPL products. They have a huge rebate program too.
The absurd part of all of this is that if canola value came down to 13 or 14$/ ac they could NEVER actually decrease costs on chem or canola seed because that would show the incredible price gouging that goes on. The smartest guy in the room right now is the fellow selling out.

[sumdumguy]

Durum that looked a good week away Monday is dry-dry, gotta go. We’ve been combining durum on some of the lighter land until now. Today we head into the flats (very slimy gumbo) hoping there’s no tractor pulling. Forecast is for 35 today and looking great into the near future. We haven’t had any lentils ready to go and there’s a lot of green Canola around here, likely two weeks away. It’s a weird fall because we always have combined lentils first but with all the flooding those lentils are frightful.

[jazz]

Sum, looks like we are going to use all the nice weather just to cure this crop around here, durum still 10d away, canola probably 20d. But looks likely we will duck any chance of frost.

[TOM4CWB]

Sum, looks like we are going to use all the nice weather just to cure this crop around here, durum still 10d away, canola probably 20d. But looks likely we will duck any chance of frost.

Swathed 100ac wheat yesterday, finished Canola… good average… peas had wet feet…

The Cdn$ is falling out of bed… and the central banks have a one track vision to stop inflation… by killing demand… employment… small business… the big corporations win in spades again. US$ over 110 this morning…

Bloomberg Report on CDN$

[SASKFARMER]

so i’m other words were F U C K E D!

[Taiga]

10% luxury tax on vehicles over $100k starts today.
Well… a lot of common vehicles we drive everyday are over $100k now.

[jazz]

Weak buck is good for our exports but sucks for all the stuff we import including iron.

[WiltonRanch]

This will ultimately put a nail in Trudeau and Singhs love fest. When the east suffers under his helm the house of cards will fall.

[beaverdam]

Carry went from 400K to 1.722 for Jul 31/21 with the last STATSCAN

What about the crazy going on in their Durum table?

Statscan now saying {-97} for the 2021-2022 {Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt)}

A negative number representing consumption/loss ???

WTH !

https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/canadas-agriculture-sectors/crops/reports-and-statistics-data-canadian-principal-field-crops/canada-outlook-principal-field-crops-2022-08-22

[LWeber]

What about the crazy going on in their Durum table?

Statscan now saying {-97} for the 2021-2022 {Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt)}

A negative number representing consumption/loss ???

WTH !

https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/can...ops-2022-08-22

Aug 29
REVISIONS TO 2021/22 - DURUM: Added 384,294 Metric tonnes of production: Missed by 14.48%

FWD is a catch all they use until the next release to straighten it out.