Bullish or Bearish Canola?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The canola market seems to be ignoring the broader us grain markets. Soybeans wheat and corn have all rallied since putting in significant lows earlier this summer. Especially King corn which conventional wisdom says should lead the rest of the grains, although I'm not really convinced that that axiom holds true.
Meanwhile canola futures keep eroding even relative to soybeans and soy oil and crush margins.

Is this the hangover of the fact that producers were gun shy to presale very much production this year after last year's disaster and the poor start to this crop year? Now with decent crops on the way in most areas, everyone who will need to sell for cash flow or bin space at harvest, are finding themselves forced to sell all at once into the harvest happy hour?

I was under the impression that the premium that had been in the canola market due to last year's drought and whether earlier this year has long since been priced out, but the market seems to disagree with that.
At today's values, I would assume that the crush margins for canola would be much more profitable than soybeans, went from a premium to a discount.

[TOM4CWB]

The negative economic conditions are pulling the grain markets down…

[TOM4CWB]

The negative economic conditions are pulling the grain markets down…

Must be more government jobs available in Quebec..

Cheers

[WiltonRanch]

Peeled off 30 acres last night. An Average Crop And Nothing More!!! My land has more potential than what I got. Fertilized for 50 and got 40. So anyone says there is a bumper should be taken behind the barn and talked to about making up stories.

[TOM4CWB]

Peeled off 30 acres last night. An Average Crop And Nothing More!!! My land has more potential than what I got. Fertilized for 50 and got 40. So anyone says there is a bumper should be taken behind the barn and talked to about making up stories.

Same here.
Cheers

[Sheepwheat]

Bearish.

I have farmed long enough to know how it works. Anyone who thinks sustained high prices last forever have short memories and are kidding themselves.

Based on the local crop, I’d be very bearish. Some crops FANTASTIC, some solid average, some probably a bit short of average.

If oats can be under four, canola could be under ten. Prove me wrong. Prepare accordingly.

ETA. I AM NOT saying canola will be under ten. I’m just saying not a soul on the planet knows. And also I am saying anyone who has farmed more than five or ten years should know about historic prices, and not build a business assuming diddly. Especially a business with zero control on so very many things.

[Partners]

If canola goes under 10 impossible to pay for anything..
Regardless of yields.
Crop insurance at 17.00 looks good now?

[Sheepwheat]

If canola goes under 10 impossible to pay for anything..
Regardless of yields.

Precisely. I sold canola under five. One of my best ever crops. With 32 cent N it was bad enough to pay for anything.

[Sodbuster]

Precisely. I sold canola under five. One of my best ever crops. With 32 cent N it was bad enough to pay for anything.

I remember that year too, I bought bins instead and more than payed for them a year and a half later.

[furrowtickler]

China was in the market in the past three/four weeks and is done until 2023.
Thank everyone for the export sales reporting...

Richardsons manager told me yesterday that China back in the market for Barley??

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

[wheatking16]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

Uncertainty is a superpower.