Bullish or Bearish Canola?

[WiltonRanch]

Peeled off 30 acres last night. An Average Crop And Nothing More!!! My land has more potential than what I got. Fertilized for 50 and got 40. So anyone says there is a bumper should be taken behind the barn and talked to about making up stories.

[TOM4CWB]

Peeled off 30 acres last night. An Average Crop And Nothing More!!! My land has more potential than what I got. Fertilized for 50 and got 40. So anyone says there is a bumper should be taken behind the barn and talked to about making up stories.

Same here.
Cheers

[Sheepwheat]

Bearish.

I have farmed long enough to know how it works. Anyone who thinks sustained high prices last forever have short memories and are kidding themselves.

Based on the local crop, I’d be very bearish. Some crops FANTASTIC, some solid average, some probably a bit short of average.

If oats can be under four, canola could be under ten. Prove me wrong. Prepare accordingly.

ETA. I AM NOT saying canola will be under ten. I’m just saying not a soul on the planet knows. And also I am saying anyone who has farmed more than five or ten years should know about historic prices, and not build a business assuming diddly. Especially a business with zero control on so very many things.

[Partners]

If canola goes under 10 impossible to pay for anything..
Regardless of yields.
Crop insurance at 17.00 looks good now?

[Sheepwheat]

If canola goes under 10 impossible to pay for anything..
Regardless of yields.

Precisely. I sold canola under five. One of my best ever crops. With 32 cent N it was bad enough to pay for anything.

[Sodbuster]

Precisely. I sold canola under five. One of my best ever crops. With 32 cent N it was bad enough to pay for anything.

I remember that year too, I bought bins instead and more than payed for them a year and a half later.

[furrowtickler]

China was in the market in the past three/four weeks and is done until 2023.
Thank everyone for the export sales reporting...

Richardsons manager told me yesterday that China back in the market for Barley??

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

[wheatking16]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

Uncertainty is a superpower.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Uncertainty is a superpower.

But good for volatility. Markets have a hair trigger lately.

[wheatking16]

But good for volatility. Markets have a hair trigger lately.

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

Recognizing it may be a superpower.

But acting on it, now that would be a power an order of magnitude greater.

[checking]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

Ukraine should now be a non equation in the market, and what worry there was, is, and will be should be locked in. It is no longer a black swan event.

If the Kremlin is winning, it involves terrorizing the locals to flee, scorched earth, leaving the collaborators to take over. Advance, repeat.

Same result, without the scorched earth, if the Kremlin is losing. Does it rally matter if every Ukraine garden shed isn't shelled flat? With a very few long range ordinances, stone age achievement could take out anything of value for the world in Ukraine's.

I'd look for peaceful market movers.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Richardsons manager told me yesterday that China back in the market for Barley??

When China buys "feed" barley, the suspicion typically is that it is for human consumption, or even malt. I don't know if that is true.

But reading about the coming calamity in the rice markets, with the China droughts ( which were preceeded by floods), Pakistan floods, India banning broken rice exports and putting tarrifs on other qualities of rice, etc throughout Asia, and the implication is that this will spill over into other grain subsitutes, especially in China. Wheat being the obvious example, but I assume barley is in this category as well?

The same source I read the rice analysis, is suddenly quite bullish Canola in the next two weeks. Today may be the start of that, with Canola green while the rest of the screen is red.

[jazz]

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

Reports of canola going 10bu under the expectation here in the SE.

Sorry Larry until satellites can pick off leaf disease and heat blasted pods it’s a tech that will be lacking on ground observation.