Bullish or Bearish Canola?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Uncertainty is a superpower.

But good for volatility. Markets have a hair trigger lately.

[wheatking16]

But good for volatility. Markets have a hair trigger lately.

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

Recognizing it may be a superpower.

But acting on it, now that would be a power an order of magnitude greater.

[checking]

I see I never actually answered your question.
Bearish through early harvest. Bullish into year end. After that, not certain. Might be counter seasonal this year based on SA weather and economic jitters.

And black swans out of Ukraine could blow up any marketing plans. I can see the market removing more risk premium if they think Ukraine is winning. And if Russia feels that they are backed into a corner, I can see something drastic coming from that which could explode markets higher. Which isn't helpful insight at all.

Ukraine should now be a non equation in the market, and what worry there was, is, and will be should be locked in. It is no longer a black swan event.

If the Kremlin is winning, it involves terrorizing the locals to flee, scorched earth, leaving the collaborators to take over. Advance, repeat.

Same result, without the scorched earth, if the Kremlin is losing. Does it rally matter if every Ukraine garden shed isn't shelled flat? With a very few long range ordinances, stone age achievement could take out anything of value for the world in Ukraine's.

I'd look for peaceful market movers.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Richardsons manager told me yesterday that China back in the market for Barley??

When China buys "feed" barley, the suspicion typically is that it is for human consumption, or even malt. I don't know if that is true.

But reading about the coming calamity in the rice markets, with the China droughts ( which were preceeded by floods), Pakistan floods, India banning broken rice exports and putting tarrifs on other qualities of rice, etc throughout Asia, and the implication is that this will spill over into other grain subsitutes, especially in China. Wheat being the obvious example, but I assume barley is in this category as well?

The same source I read the rice analysis, is suddenly quite bullish Canola in the next two weeks. Today may be the start of that, with Canola green while the rest of the screen is red.

[jazz]

I should clarify.

Your uncertainty of the market is a superpower.

Reports of canola going 10bu under the expectation here in the SE.

Sorry Larry until satellites can pick off leaf disease and heat blasted pods it’s a tech that will be lacking on ground observation.

[LWeber]

Reports of canola going 10bu under the expectation here in the SE.

Sorry Larry until satellites can pick off leaf disease and heat blasted pods it’s a tech that will be lacking on ground observation.

The tech is there...they're not using it. USDA or Statscan


AI will soon do the pod counts/ kernel counts and not one farmer will be phoned.

Some underperforming in the NE too.

USDA used 42 bpa average today. Their ndvi synopsis is in FAS oilseed for Sept.

Long time to December finals.