Canola 60 bushel swath!!!

[LWeber]

Seems the market is starting to recognize that all the pods they counted from space, weren't all full, and that it's Oct and there are thousands on tonnes out there to bring in yet.

73 some CAD, doesn't hurt either.

I spent the weekend in Furrow's district. From Murray Lake to Vawn to Edam to Paynton to Delmas.
Here are SK AG's "boots on the ground" numbers for the past 5 years for canola.



SK AG has underestimated the final canola number by 7.05/bu an acre on average for the previous 4 Sept estimates; however, that's not going to be the biggest adjustment this year. The last time farmers were surveyed for acres was February and March and won't again until November. Trade estimates are from 800 to 1.1 million higher canola acres than the Feb/Mar survey based on seed and input sales. In the past acreage surveys from farmers were done in July and August. Now there are no secondary checks until December.

We can debate production/acreage until December 02, when the final STATSCAN comes out.

Sean Pratt's article in last week's Producer was missing the report card on past performance. NDVI modelling suggested 37.7 bpa for SK. SK AG was 34.

I'll post the last 14 years data later this week - I have it but it needs to be updated for the last changes to production in 2020/21.

There is only one year that STATSCAN's canola yield went down in the previous 14 from the September estimate to the December estimate, and that was during the wind swept anomaly in September 2012.

To get to 18 MMT using STATSCAN acres, MB would have to be 38 bpa, SK 34 and AB 37.

Matthew Struthers, crops extension specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, is confident in the yield estimates compiled from 200 crop reporters scattered across the province. “We get our information from crop reporters, so we get it from people right on the ground,” he said. “They do a great job and I stand with the information we have in the report.” (PRODUCER.COM - Sept 29)

Given the previous 4 years canola data, who would you bet on today?


edit... added producer quote - added canola to last sentence.

[furrowtickler]

Great info , thanks Larry 👍

[LWeber]

Great info , thanks Larry 👍

Here are the record yields set for Canada and three main canola provinces via STATSCAN
2022 is not final.



AB AG missed their record year by 3.1 bpa - 6.8%
MB AG missed their record year by 4 bpa - 9.1%
SK AG missed their record year by 7.8 bpa - 22.3%

SK crop reporters do not have a good past record estimating canola yields.

[LWeber]

Here are the record yields set for Canada and three main canola provinces via STATSCAN
2022 is not final.

[ATTACH]11154[/ATTACH]

AB AG missed their record year by 3.1 bpa - 6.8%
MB AG missed their record year by 4 bpa - 9.1%
SK AG missed their record year by 7.8 bpa - 22.3%

SK crop reporters do not have a good past record estimating canola yields.

60 bpa canola is tossed around like it is normal - it has never been normal.
The previous 12 year canola average is 37.09 bpa across Canada.
NDVI estimates for 22/23 is 39.7 bpa - 7% over normal yields.

I don't know why so many have their s/h/i/t in a knot.

[TOM4CWB]

60 bpa canola is tossed around like it is normal - it has never been normal.
The previous 12 year canola average is 37.09 bpa across Canada.
NDVI estimates for 22/23 is 39.7 bpa - 7% over normal yields.

I don't know why so many have their s/h/i/t in a knot.

Larry if you took the July20-August- Sept rainfalls... that would tell a real story about why our yields in Alberta are not as StatsCan says. We went from blooming to the bin with no rainfall that was enough to fill the pods here... if someone caught an extra shower... it was the exception not the rule... wheat however hung in and did exceed average normals... where canola was 90% of normal. Something does not add up on Alberta Canola numbers, the plant material was there... but the pods didn't fill normally... smaller seeds.

By this summer... we found when we emptied the Canola bins ... we were 2bu/ac short of measured twice, double audited 2021 yields... 6% moisture canola is 4%weight less than 9% moisture canola... and just about impossible to rehydrate. I don't think it is 6%... on our 914 meter it is unmeasurable low on the charts... but no one cares... it is the farmers loss.

Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

Larry if you took the July20-August- Sept rainfalls... that would tell a real story about why our yields in Alberta are not as StatsCan says. We went from blooming to the bin with no rainfall that was enough to fill the pods here... if someone caught an extra shower... it was the exception not the rule... wheat however hung in and did exceed average normals... where canola was 90% of normal. Something does not add up on Alberta Canola numbers, the plant material was there... but the pods didn't fill normally... smaller seeds.

By this summer... we found when we emptied the Canola bins ... we were 2bu/ac short of measured twice, double audited 2021 yields... 6% moisture canola is 4%weight less than 9% moisture canola... and just about impossible to rehydrate. I don't think it is 6%... on our 914 meter it is unmeasurable low on the charts... but no one cares... it is the farmers loss.

Cheers

The actual oil yield from over dry Canola is another hard number to get out of tests... they say they have to send it away to a lab to find out??????? Oil profiles.. no problem... and perhaps the oil yeild is also down when short of filling moisture... I don't know the data on that... once end users know the crop quality... the basis is adjusted... in western Canada... we are in the dark.

[LWeber]

Larry if you took the July20-August- Sept rainfalls... that would tell a real story about why our yields in Alberta are not as StatsCan says. We went from blooming to the bin with no rainfall that was enough to fill the pods here... if someone caught an extra shower... it was the exception not the rule... wheat however hung in and did exceed average normals... where canola was 90% of normal. Something does not add up on Alberta Canola numbers, the plant material was there... but the pods didn't fill normally... smaller seeds.

By this summer... we found when we emptied the Canola bins ... we were 2bu/ac short of measured twice, double audited 2021 yields... 6% moisture canola is 4%weight less than 9% moisture canola... and just about impossible to rehydrate. I don't think it is 6%... on our 914 meter it is unmeasurable low on the charts... but no one cares... it is the farmers loss.

Cheers

Sorry Furrow, it was the August survey in the wind of 2012 - not the September.
Model based vs survey based vs final.
2016/17 was the start of NDVI model usage in September 2016.
2006/07 to 2015/16 was survey based on phone calls/online submission.
The worst the model based satellite system in September has been out is 8.9%.
The worst the survey based was 25.6%

What production estimate system has been more accurate vs the final in September?
The elephant in the room in 2022/23 is seeded acres...not yield.

[furrowtickler]

The elephant always has an exaggerated tusk

[LWeber]

The elephant always has an exaggerated tusk

LOL...i disagree with no further communication on acres, since Feb/March, Furrow.
No calls to crop insurance, no calls to Prov - nadda.
The biggest part of production changes since 2016/17 has been acres - not yield.

[furrowtickler]

All I know is this resulted in a huge yield decline in many areas thought to be huge in July …


Time will tell ..

[furrowtickler]

If the extra acres were in SF area , yields will be up a bit , it there were anywhere in the 90% of the rest of western Canada, it’s a complete crap shoot .

[TOM4CWB]

If the extra acres were in SF area , yields will be up a bit , it there were anywhere in the 90% of the rest of western Canada, it’s a complete crap shoot .

We thought at first we had 44bu/ac… until we closely calibrated /recalibrated our load cells on combines… 42 average was 38… by weight. Since the moisture and bu/hr harvest speeds were very consistent…A Full bins mean diddly… when the density/weight isn’t there…