Crop Share vs Cash Rent

[foragefarmer]

Rents will not be going down anytime soon. If offered, you will have 3 seconds to reply. It's not rocket science.
Caution based on your own scale requirements or risk profile always warranted.
I have spent a lifetime waiting for "cheap".

Cheap is comparing prices of today to prices in the past.

Cheap should be comparing current prices to prices in future.

Just saying!

[furrowtickler]

NW SK some $160.00+ was inked recently...not that far from Furrow

Lots of rumours swirling the past two weeks .
West of here I would imagine, in the banana belt ?
Consistent timely rains make for brave individuals. 60 bus canola over 45 bus canola at $20 gives one a tremendously different outlook . As does the 45 over less than 30 east of here .
Was rumours in this area but I think a lot of “fishing” going on . Watching rains go by does not install a lot of confidence to significantly increase the risk for us , Each to their own.
Time will tell in this area , at those rates it may be time to become a wealthy landlord and offload the tremendous risk . Working hard with massive risk and stress levels to make others wealthy not appealing at over 50 . Add in the barrage of environmental restrictions about to come to farms from the liberals and not sure where this will all end up ?
Maybe buy a few camels 🐪 and do some crop scouting from here and east , collect rent, avoid carbon tax and crazy expensive diesel.

The big question is how long will grain prices support this risk ? Just inking $160 plus means they are paying 30% more for fertilizer and other inputs on new dirt from just a few months ago .
Maybe we won’t ever go back to $5 wheat and $10 canola ?
Sit, wait and watch for us at this time . It may be the new norm , time will tell .

[LWeber]

Lots of rumours swirling the past two weeks .
West of here I would imagine, in the banana belt ? YES

The big question is how long will grain prices support this risk ? Just inking $160 plus means they are paying 30% more for fertilizer and other inputs on new dirt from just a few months ago .
Maybe we won’t ever go back to $5 wheat and $10 canola ?
Sit, wait and watch for us at this time . It may be the new norm , time will tell .

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/09/fact-sheet-biden-administration-advances-the-future-of-sustainable-fuels-in-american-aviation/

Old news... but the effects are tremendous on vegetable oil usage. It is only 8 years away.
In my best Garth: Live in the now - The problem for canola will be the crushers will be the only game in town come January/Feb.

• A new Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge to inspire the dramatic increase in the production of sustainable aviation fuels to at least 3 billion gallons per year by 2030;
• New and ongoing funding opportunities to support sustainable aviation fuel projects and fuel producers totaling up to $4.3 billion;
• An increase in R&D activities to demonstrate new technologies that can achieve at least a 30% improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency;
• Efforts to improve air traffic and airport efficiency to reduce fuel use, eliminate lead exposure, and ensure cleaner air in and around airports; and
• The demonstration of U.S. leadership both internationally and through the federal example.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

eliminate lead exposure, and ensure cleaner air in and around airports;

Learn something everyday. I did not know that lead was still used in aviation fuel. Or that sustainable aviation fuel can eliminate that lead, the same way it does with ethanol replacing lead and MTBE.

Hard to believe that we have been waging a war on completely harmless CO2( plant food) while still allowing aircraft to pollute the skies with lead whose health consequences are dire and have been known for centuries. There literally is no known safe exposure limit for lead. So we put into an internal combustion engine and disperse it into the atmosphere where its residence time in the broader environment is measured in centuries. Then wonder why we are losing the was on cancer.

While I question the sustainability and economic feasibility claims of biofuels, this is one argument in favour of biofuels that cannot be refuted.

[Guest]

Grow canolie for $280 ac throw in another $100 cash rent … priceless!!

Work real hard for nothing!!

Those Andjelics of the world need to take a long cold bath one of these yrs. But again, farmers are to blame again feeding him what he wants.

you better update that $280? !!!!!!!

[Guest]

we use a blend of 130-35-0-36
here are fixed costs at todays prices;
N-$152
phos-44
sulphur with floater-54
fuel-26
liberty , 3 lt , 2 apps, -35
centurion-5
roundup pre burn -8
roundup post harvest or desiccate -9
fungi-21
seed-65
rent or own land use cost $80
total $499/ac
of course still need some iron , maybe a little $ for wages, repairs , etc.
machinery cost could easily add $150-$200/ac
she's a *** freight train heading for the mountain and gaining speed
guys need to wake to fu k up
feel free to add what i have forgot , some need saskatchewan (highest price in the world) potash as well, after it takes an imaginary trip to the gulf of mexico and back

[furrowtickler]

Still waiting for deflation in ag

[AlbertaFarmer5]

we use a blend of 130-35-0-36
here are fixed costs at todays prices;
N-$152
phos-44
sulphur with floater-54
fuel-26
liberty , 3 lt , 2 apps, -35
centurion-5
roundup pre burn -8
roundup post harvest or desiccate -9
fungi-21
seed-65
rent or own land use cost $80
total $499/ac
of course still need some iron , maybe a little $ for wages, repairs , etc.
machinery cost could easily add $150-$200/ac
she's a *** freight train heading for the mountain and gaining speed
guys need to wake to fu k up
feel free to add what i have forgot , some need saskatchewan (highest price in the world) potash as well, after it takes an imaginary trip to the gulf of mexico and back

What else did you forget?

I heard rents closer to highway two in central AB up to $150.

Crop Insurance. Out here in the hail belt, I'm hearing more people carrying multiple hail policies, that adds up.

Multiple insecticide applications for flea beetles this year for many.

Could easily spend more than $65 per acre on seed at 5 lbs.

Drying, storage costs. Drying was nearly free most places this year, but storage costs are up a lot.

Interest costs on the inputs, I would think for most, that would suddenly become a significant expense at these rates.

But using your numbers, and assuming the $200 figure would be all inclusive of equipment, wages, repairs, fuel etc. That would take 35 bushels to break even at todays prices.

Last years Canada wide average was 25 bushels per acre. Could happen again. I believe many areas are in worse shape now than in fall of 2020?

2022 supposedly 39.7. Leaving a profit of $94. Which sounds good, except it is only 12% margin. Not much room for something to go wrong. Especially during a time when markets can swing that far in a matter of days, panic sell at the wrong time could wipe that out in a hurry.

[foragefarmer]

we use a blend of 130-35-0-36
here are fixed costs at todays prices;
N-$152
phos-44
sulphur with floater-54
fuel-26
liberty , 3 lt , 2 apps, -35
centurion-5
roundup pre burn -8
roundup post harvest or desiccate -9
fungi-21
seed-65
rent or own land use cost $80
total $499/ac
of course still need some iron , maybe a little $ for wages, repairs , etc.
machinery cost could easily add $150-$200/ac
she's a *** freight train heading for the mountain and gaining speed
guys need to wake to fu k up
feel free to add what i have forgot , some need saskatchewan (highest price in the world) potash as well, after it takes an imaginary trip to the gulf of mexico and back

Sure glad I don't grow that shit.

But, it still adds up for me very quickly.

Not cheap this High Stakes Poker game we play, but we'll all be willing to be dealt a hand this spring.

[fcr]

CSCO Seed tru Cargill is 116.00/ac ( treated) for next year

[jazz]

Canola acres are not going to go up. There are tons of guys who were getting away with growing a 25 bu crop on marginal land after lentils or peas and $500 urea. Those days are over.

[hedgehog]

Here in scotland, contract farming has taken over.
Its a form of share cropping which allows landlord to claim the £80 pr acre subsidy and get paid to plant trees etc
Contractor does all work and gets a profit share if there is one.
I had a rented farm since 93, fenced it, drained it and built a 27,000 sq ft grainstore
I got chucked out in 2015 and my former friend and neighbour contract farms it along with a couple of million of new iron

[furrowtickler]

All our forefathers left European countries because of this , now some here are cheerleaders for the WEF policy under the scheme of climate change for wealth redistribution among everyone but the very elite that are pushing this Ponzi scheme .

[blackpowder]

Cash rent landlords don't care what you spend on inputs or Iron

And neither does anyone else FYI.

[blackpowder]

Here in scotland, contract farming has taken over.
Its a form of share cropping which allows landlord to claim the £80 pr acre subsidy and get paid to plant trees etc
Contractor does all work and gets a profit share if there is one.
I had a rented farm since 93, fenced it, drained it and built a 27,000 sq ft grainstore
I got chucked out in 2015 and my former friend and neighbour contract farms it along with a couple of million of new iron

Kinda wish there was a sad button as well as a like button. Or a smelly coil button. Feel ya bro.