Grain Markets If

[Landdownunder]

Anyone wonder what pricing would be if we didn't have these black swan left field events.

Wish I threw discipline out the window with marketing plan this year.

Was forward sold at quite good levels not the top only the best get that or say they do.

But my % forward sold has become less due to increase production.

Did do some timely incremental sales about 3 weeks ago raised it little.

Lots of commodities could be in for a dark week or maybe turnaround from Fridays sell off who knows

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Considering that markets have now entirely removed the risk premium (and then some)that was built in after the invasion, I think the biggest Black swan risk now is that the markets were wrong to have removed that war premium. The known knowns could keep eroding the markets, but the unknowns should go the other way

[TOM4CWB]

Considering that markets have now entirely removed the risk premium (and then some)that was built in after the invasion, I think the biggest Black swan risk now is that the markets were wrong to have removed that war premium. The known knowns could keep eroding the markets, but the unknowns should go the other way

The risks of global recession as the Fed and central banks pump up interest rates… reducing demand for fossil fuel… the lock downs in China… US strategic oil reserves being released… look at lumber falling… no reason grain won’t fall another 20% especially if oil falls another 20%… plenty of wheat in the world… decent corn reserves… soy has good yield in US… frost held off and harvesting going gang busters… just like western Canada…

Putin war premium is still in play… work around deliveries are being used as the EU grain shortage is being filled by Ukrainian grain… they won’t take long to figure out how to move it west if Putin blocks Port shipping…

Gross miscalculation to attempt reducing inflation by increasing costs and disruptive supply chain new green deal restrictions and regulations…

Interesting times no doubt… who will starve?

Won’t be in the western world… 9 billion people now on the planet… we are a small % of global food demand… as are the western economies …

Cheers!

[Landdownunder]

Guess short term “Russian” spikes still likely to happen but spikes only.

[Braveheart]

South American weather could be the greatest influence going forward.

[TOM4CWB]

South American weather could be the greatest influence going forward.

Not Pretty...

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/financial-crisis-redux-looms-asia-160000271.html

Bloomberg
Crisis Level Risks Loom in Asia as Major Currencies Crack


Matthew Burgess, Ruth Carson and Tania Chen
Sun, September 25, 2022, 7:35 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Asian markets risk a reprise of crisis-level stress as two of the region’s most important currencies crumble under the onslaught of relentless dollar strength.

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The yuan and yen are both tumbling due to the growing disparity between an uber-hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish policy makers in China and Japan. While other Asian nations are digging deep into foreign-exchange reserves to mitigate the dollar’s damage, the yuan and yen’s slump is making things worse for everyone, threatening the region’s mantle as a preferred destination for risk investors.

“The renminbi and yen are big anchors and their weakness risks destabilizing currencies to trade and investments in Asia,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore, using another name for China’s currency. “We’re already heading toward global financial crisis levels of stress in some aspects, then the next step would be the Asian financial crisis if losses deepen.”

The gravitational pull of China and Japan are evident in the sheer influence of their economies and trade relationships. China has been the largest trading partner of Southeast Asian nations for 13 straight years, according to a Chinese government statement. Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, is a major exporter of capital and credit.

The tumble in the currencies of the region’s two largest economies may swell into a full-fledged crisis if it spooks overseas funds into pulling money out of Asia as a whole, leading to massive capital flight. Alternatively, the declines may set off a vicious cycle of competitive devaluations and a slide in demand and consumer confidence.

‘Bigger Threat’

“Currency risk is a bigger threat for Asian nations than interest rates,” said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Ltd. in Singapore. “At the end of the day, all of Asia are exporters and we could see a reprise of 1997 or 1998 without the massive collateral damage.”

Investors have already been busy pulling money from the region. Global funds have taken about $44 billion out from Taiwan’s shares this year, $20 billion from India’s equities, and $13.7 billion from Korean stocks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Indonesia’s bond market has suffered $8.2 in outflows."....

[goalieguy847]

Well carryout is still extremely low... so many mouths to feed and tangible commodities are definitely better to be holding right now than anything else. I think its easy to see a recession is coming in Canada and most likely 90% of the world.
I always look at our local elevators and see what theyre up to...
On weds/ thurs last week 2 of the 3 ran an october or nov canola special. One was wildly over the market. 40 cents/ bushel.
That begs the question....
What do they know?

I believe that after talking to many farmers from.all over the map.. the answer is simple.
There is wayyyy less canola out there than we all thought. I dont know a single guy who hasnt said " looks like a 50-60...only getting 35"

Local elevators are prognosticators in a sense.
If they ran a special to fill trains then that means trains are running on time and grain sales are up. And if they ran a special to buy cheaper grain then they know where the markets are headed....

[Taiga]

Agree that tangibles will have the value going forward for a while. Food and food ingredients. Energy sources necessary for survival (heat).
Not getting in a hurry to sell anything.

[blackpowder]

I would only have ~30% of this year's production in farm storage.
After a token amount of price protection enabled, it can sit till spring.
Unhedge-able specialties are mostly gone. Remaining peas in store could bite this year. Oats all gone.
A year to price next years. Aren't going to guess on the future.