Diesel shortage

[furrowtickler]

Lots of chatter going on about a major diesel shortage . Anyone got real time numbers ?
Been a lot of disruptions at refineries in several locations around the world the past 3 months, some natural some not .

[shtferbrains]

Seems the diesel shortage and general euro like energy crisis is centered on the US East coast Boston/New York city due to some non-tarriff barrier called the jones act that results in all the diesel being imported.
May be high prices elsewhere but unlikely to be any actual zero inventory situations.
DYOD
Hard to get a real feel for what's going on with everyone running around with their hair on fire.

[BTO780]

Better start stocking up on everything from soup to nuts and bolts.

Shortages, shortages, blah, blah, blah.

Buy, buy, buy …. Pretty soon will be saying bye, bye, bye.

[woodland]

At $1.44 for dyed diesel today there’s something fishy going on. Of course our tanks have to get low now. 🤨

Not sure to buy this week or procrastinate to next week? Running low or out with cows around isn’t an option………..

[biglentil]

I filled up.

[errolanderson]

OPEC is gradually losing control and manipulation of the oil market. Global oil demand is in-decline.

Overall price trend remains down (in my view). Major support appears to be around $65 per barrel, but when? This is apt to trigger in-fighting within the cartel . . . .

[Templeboy]

this is from Gas Buddy OCT 26, Peter Schiff also talked about 25 days supply of diesel left

"DISTILLATE (DIESEL, HEATING OIL) INVENTORIES:
Distillate inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels to a total of 106.4 MMbbl. At 106.4 MMbbl, inventories are down 18.6 MMbbl, or 14.9% lower vs. a year ago. Distillate inventories stand about 20% below the five-year average for this time of year."

apparently refined diesel used to come to the North America from Russia and Europe.

[errolanderson]

Push for gasoline production (at the expense of diesel) especially heading into U.S. Midterms. Once rebalance of gas/diesel production, diesel supplies should loosen and prices drop. My opinion . . . .

[furrowtickler]

I hope your right Errol

https://youtu.be/gqVMaD7pX9Y

Again time will tell how this shakes out

[biglentil]

Its shaking alright

[shtferbrains]

I feel some small comfort in knowing there is someone monitoring where all those thousands of shoulder fired anti aircraft missles end up.

Very valuable to terrorists as they do create a lot of terror if they were used on commercial airliners in high visibility situations.
Seems almost inevitable.

[errolanderson]

Good news . . . crack in diesel prices this week. WTI crude oil quick 8% pullback. China lockdown partial factor pressuring oil. Global demand sliding to OPEC's chagrin.

[wheatking16]

Good news . . . crack in diesel prices this week. WTI crude oil quick 8% pullback. China lockdown partial factor pressuring oil. Global demand sliding to OPEC's chagrin.

ULSD Futures attempting a break of the trendline from November 2020.

We need confirmation, starting with a weekly close below the trendline; however, this is a start.

The chart suggests the potential for a 35% pullback.

First Things First.

[TOM4CWB]

Harvest is winding up in the US, significantly less demand for diesel.

Barges moving on Mississippi reducing truck traffic, as is recession in US and Canada,

Warm US October and November so far, reducing heating fuel demand;

EU also warm, reducing fuel demand (LNG surplus from reduced demand)

26 days diesel inventory on hand now, vs 34 normally now on US, recovering New York ULS Diesel down 8 cents per gallon today, refinery shut downs ending…

Chinese demand still weak as Covid resurgence in China…

Container freight and shipping caught up, less air freight traffic…

Cheers

[zeefarmer]