From my broker
The Aussie wheat crop has a very strong likelihood of being a record. The USDA has the crop pegged at 33MMT, whereas CloudBreak estimates are closer to 35.5MMT. The SA wheat crop is likely to be a record also and at this rate could reach 7MMT! As such, the biggest questions are; when will it be coming off and what’s the quality?
Risk to the upside will be based on shorts in SA and eastern states due to a later harvest, in combination with the global volatility driven primarily by the export corridor status in the Black Sea (up for renew- al/renegotiation on Nov 20). Downside risks for wheat include heavy harvest pressure and volume of high protein vs feed wheat.
Volatility is no doubt going to continue, however, betting it all on shipping shorts or another strong rally on futures is a high risk strate- gy.
The Aussie wheat crop has a very strong likelihood of being a record. The USDA has the crop pegged at 33MMT, whereas CloudBreak estimates are closer to 35.5MMT. The SA wheat crop is likely to be a record also and at this rate could reach 7MMT! As such, the biggest questions are; when will it be coming off and what’s the quality?
Risk to the upside will be based on shorts in SA and eastern states due to a later harvest, in combination with the global volatility driven primarily by the export corridor status in the Black Sea (up for renew- al/renegotiation on Nov 20). Downside risks for wheat include heavy harvest pressure and volume of high protein vs feed wheat.
Volatility is no doubt going to continue, however, betting it all on shipping shorts or another strong rally on futures is a high risk strate- gy.
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