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    #11
    From my broker

    The Aussie wheat crop has a very strong likelihood of being a record. The USDA has the crop pegged at 33MMT, whereas CloudBreak estimates are closer to 35.5MMT. The SA wheat crop is likely to be a record also and at this rate could reach 7MMT! As such, the biggest questions are; when will it be coming off and what’s the quality?
    Risk to the upside will be based on shorts in SA and eastern states due to a later harvest, in combination with the global volatility driven primarily by the export corridor status in the Black Sea (up for renew- al/renegotiation on Nov 20). Downside risks for wheat include heavy harvest pressure and volume of high protein vs feed wheat.
    Volatility is no doubt going to continue, however, betting it all on shipping shorts or another strong rally on futures is a high risk strate- gy.

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      #12
      Austcanada might chip in.

      large yep record doubt it there's insane rains coming again fear a lot in the east won't actually get harvested

      beans and lentils and peas feeling crunch not right now about two weeks ago aint got no better hence why im salivating at prospect of 37c we need it

      sunburnt peckers at nudist beach who cares famers need it....had to through in veiled attempt at humour

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        #13
        as if your not sick of me more info good useless up to you

        Beans have been the most adversely impacted. Many bean growing areas are expected to see a complete wipe-out of the crop. Notably, the more disease resistant Samira’s have been able to hold up bet- ter than the IMI resistant Bendoc variety. Like lentils, for areas that have done well to control disease, bean yields are reported between 7-10 MT/ha, but also akin to lentils, it likely won’t be enough to off- set the losses elsewhere. For Victoria, bean yield losses are forecast to average between 60-70%.
        The biggest difficulty is trafficability to get out and control disease. Some crops are (anecdotally) 20cm under water around Nhill and Birchip. Growers are simply finding it impossible to get out into the field until the water drains.

        But Egypt buy 70% plus of Aussie beans currently facing record low currency and banks tightening lending and heavy resilience to lending for importers

        Have a good night guys gals and convertibles will ring ya about 3 to 4 pm Monday your time furrow

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          #14
          I feel for you mallee. It is tough watching a beautiful crop get beat up before it can get harvested.

          37C and lots of standing water would be a recipe for thunderstorms and hail here.

          Hope you can get your crop harvested in decent shape.

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            #15
            Thanks for the crop update In Australia, Its a world away but pretty important in our marketing decisions. Its not in the bin till its in the bin.

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              #16
              Originally posted by Landdownunder View Post
              Austcanada might chip in.

              sunburnt peckers at nudist beach who cares famers need it....had to through in veiled attempt at humour
              The speed of sunscreen application would be critical, other wise you would be arrested here in Canada.

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                #17
                From a guy I know in neighbouring state.

                Dark beer perhaps

                Click image for larger version

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                  #18
                  High heat, high humidity. I can only imagine. We get that for a few days maybe once a decade or more.
                  It's your go or die like our winter?

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                    #19
                    Originally posted by Landdownunder View Post
                    From a guy I know in neighbouring state.

                    Dark beer perhaps

                    [ATTACH]11336[/ATTACH]
                    The barley we combined in the spring of 2020 didn't look as bad as that. And it had been rained and snowed on all fall, sat out all winter, got rained on every day from late April till early June when we finally finished combining it.

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                      #20
                      Another day pushin snow


                      But nice change from being extremely dry with zero precipitation of any kind

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