Canola Price

[Landdownunder]

Aint no ifs or buts deadset australia IS going to have record canola crop. Massive just massive.

Prices dropping like a stone here now mostly due to lack of shipping slots and boats booked.

Appears that everything accounted and accumulated to meet shipping demands and there's still a shitload un harvested.

[Rareearth]

Canola markets are strong and well supported, as per futures and Stats Can ( if you trust them).

There is exceptional risk for all crops in Western Canada ,

Exceptionally dry, snow pack south of Saskatoon means nothing, market must price in the risk, and everyone must wait till May before forecasting record yields, in those dry areas no sane farmer will fertilize for a bumper crop, those acres will recieve fertilizer for a average crop at best and likely 25% below that number.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Bipolar markets.

Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.

Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?

Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?

[flea beetle]

Bipolar markets.

Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.

Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?

Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?

Whatever it is, it is making my head hurt!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Up $40 per tonne now today, while everything else is in the red. Including soy oil.

So the crop really wasn't as big as estimated. And it took until now for the market to believe it?

I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out. So this should have been all priced in already. So is stats can wrong, or was the market wrong?

Meanwhile, crush margins have been crazy high, as farmer selling pressure kept a lid on the market, probably because we all believed the numbers?

[Goodtime]

And now wait for $25 just to have it plummet again lmao.

[flea beetle]

Futures rise $32/ton and ADM increases basis +$3 to producer….things that make you go hmmmm🤔

Me thinks a strong Friday finish like that coupled with a better basis to farmer= good things to come in the weeks ahead.

[Landdownunder]

Bipolar markets.

Today, even though soy oil is still down, soybeans are up.

Canola is up more that it went down yesterday. Was the stats can number lower than the market expected?

Or did the market figure out that the FDA news was probably not bearish for canola going forward?

EU down 18 euro

[LWeber]

I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out.

Can you find that quote, Chuck?

[wheatking16]

Up $40 per tonne now today, while everything else is in the red. Including soy oil.

So the crop really wasn't as big as estimated. And it took until now for the market to believe it?

I thought Larry assured us that those in the know could estimate the crop size by satellite long before anyone on the ground could figure it out. So this should have been all priced in already. So is stats can wrong, or was the market wrong?

Meanwhile, crush margins have been crazy high, as farmer selling pressure kept a lid on the market, probably because we all believed the numbers?

What information can you trust?

I trust the price.

And my dog.

I trust the price and my dog.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Can you find that quote, Chuck?

Sorry for putting words in your mouth. That is definitely a Chuck move.

I just reread the thread, and that isn't exactly what you were saying:

https://www.agriville.com/threads/44834-Canola-60-bushel-swath!!!?highlight=satellite

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Aint no ifs or buts deadset australia IS going to have record canola crop. Massive just massive.

Prices dropping like a stone here now mostly due to lack of shipping slots and boats booked.

Appears that everything accounted and accumulated to meet shipping demands and there's still a shitload un harvested.

I assume that in the areas that had too much rain, the canola wouldn't be affected? Or will it sprout in the pod if conditions are warm and wet?

[LWeber]

Sorry for putting words in your mouth. That is definitely a Chuck move.

I just reread the thread, and that isn't exactly what you were saying:

https://www.agriville.com/threads/44...ight=satellite

[LWeber]

What information can you trust?

I trust the price.

And my dog.

I trust the price and my dog.

All information sourced from Cargill, Viterra, North West Terminal, CMI Terminal, Louis Dreyfus, Price and Data Quotes and Stat Publishing.

Unless you have a +35 year dataset; You have placed your trust in everyone listed above.

https://applications.saskatchewan.ca/Default.aspx?DN=6dd2ea91-22e6-4095-9d2a-67ef8c822897&l=English

PraireCharts has the same gaps in some charts - how is that possible?

[TOM4CWB]

Stats Canada Canola production 18.2mmt…






Blessings and Salutations