Canola Price

[ajl]

Surprise, surprise, the crop is smaller than earlier estimates. What else is new? Seems this happens every year. Canola crop was merely average if anyone looked in the field. It was so dry here in the spring that emergence was very patchy in many fields. When harvest is very dry canola is a light as a feather so if it is at 4-6% moisture you have less than you think in the bins. Last year I had to resubmit my crop insurance after the canola was hauled as the fall bin estimate proved too high. I was hoping the adjuster was correct. Anyways would be nice if the canola council would stop helping the buyers with BS estimates every year. What drives me nuts is all the inputs ads that try to convince you the other guys yield was that good.

[TOM4CWB]

Over 2mmt less production…. In western Canada….

Over 1.5$ Billion cut from grain farmers income….

Now that is quite a one day hair cut…for our communities and family farms.

Deflation… the dry soil going into winter… risk of 2023 drought… below average yield in western Canada… just increased substantially. Our farm has much worse (50%) subsoil moisture than Dec 2021.

With zero rain since August 1… 3/10’s in October was barely enough to wet down 1.5”…this has to be decades since we have been this short of subsoil reserves.

Yet…We are blessed to have the 2022 grain crops we got…

Cheers

[Guest]

Futures rise $32/ton and ADM increases basis +$3 to producer….things that make you go hmmmm🤔

Me thinks a strong Friday finish like that coupled with a better basis to farmer= good things to come in the weeks ahead.

Hope you’re right
I’m still gonna take some $20 if it comes !
I hate to say it in this instance but stats can is a long gone out of touch leftover like chucks CWB

[flea beetle]

Hope you’re right
I’m still gonna take some $20 if it comes !
I hate to say it in this instance but stats can is a long gone out of touch leftover like chucks CWB

Not often futures and basis rise at the same time.

[shtferbrains]

Not often futures and basis rise at the same time.

ADM will really push to fill the book and then back out.

[Goodtime]

Canola moving in the right direction.

[Sodbuster]

Canola doing it’s own thing this morning, soyoil been down hard in the last week. Is there some news we don’t know about because these prices are not inline with soyoil or soybeans. Only news lately is statscan lowering canola production.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canola doing it’s own thing this morning, soyoil been down hard in the last week. Is there some news we don’t know about because these prices are not inline with soyoil or soybeans. Only news lately is statscan lowering canola production.

The EPA proposal was favourable for Canola, disappointing for soybeans.
Crush margins are still $200 per tonne on Canola, so oil can continue to drop, and canola can continue to go up, and still remain profitable. Unless of course, we continue to sell and let them keep the insanely high margins( I admit, I am guilty right now). That is down from over $300 a week ago.

[wheatking16]

I will reassess at that level but anticipate the price to slow down or reverse at the 850-860 range.

Constantly reassessing.

We got our slowdown as Canola has spent the past 8 days attempting to break above 860.

A move is likely to happen shortly.

The question is, Which direction?

[BreadWinner]

Viterra has a special on canola so historic specials seem to signal a rise in futures.

[Partners]

20 trucks lined up at RP yesterday.
Buying canola/,fd bly..
Lots has been priced..sure better than 30 below hauling..

[furrowtickler]

20 trucks lined up at RP yesterday.
Buying canola/,fd bly..
Lots has been priced..sure better than 30 below hauling..

We hauled out a bunch last week , not fun . Hard on augers and this ole body

Cleaning wheat this week , hauling a few peas , much nicer, at least tolerable

[Generation 5]

Canola taking losses today

[Rareearth]

And that is part of the market psychology, not alway fundamentals or charting.

If farmers are not selling right now, they the buyers will increase or decrease the bid ( basis) for a lot of reasons.
If the crushers are full, enough canola sitting in grain terminals inland and at port then expect price decreases.

It is cold out so farmers dont want to venture out much except to feed the livestock, and stock up on the liquors.

[BreadWinner]

Christmas markets, lots of traders get out of their positions and reevaluate after jan1st.