Canola Price

[jazz]

The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March

You think funds are selling the s/hit out the market and hoping it goes up?

Commodity manipulation on the comex is a tried and true practice. Been going on for decades. Look at gold.

I wouldnt get too panicked yet. The short sellers were targeting NG a few days ago too and they got burned.

Same thing probably happens to canola and gets a rally. But if you see one, I would be a seller for sure. Be a nasty recession on the back half of the yr.

[shtferbrains]

i think the link says the short options on canola are nearly the same as as the calls on corn and beans combined?

That cant be a good thing for farmers holding inventory?

[Partners]

Where are the chart boys?
No end in sight for the free fall.
Or did all burn their charts

[Marusko]

[ATTACH]11948[/ATTACH]

Well Partners, I posted the above on Feb 7, and would you believe it, March hit 852 on March 1st-3rd, at the tip of my upper boundary line. and then turned around and took a dump. Didn't quite hit my 855 target but I ended up selling at 860 net, and that apparently was a good choice.

The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March

You think funds are selling the s/hit out the market and hoping it goes up?

not saying there's not more downside to come, but the article says it's the largest net short position since March 2020, does that mean nothing? If they're selling short, they're going to have to buy back eventually... maybe a turnaround in spring/summer when the weather market comes into play? Maybe won't hit 852 again but if I still had canola to sell I would be holding and not panic selling right now - that's my point. May/July '23 hovering at 755 today

who knows, maybe come fall, 755 will be a dream

[Partners]

So how far will it fall?

[Marusko]

So how far will it fall?

Dunno. I'm not sure where to pinpoint a new support level at once it breaks through a range. May canola's last dip (in January) was in the 790 area so from what I see now, I'd be targeting that or just below that as the next high point.

[Partners]

One chart person said support at 750..
Below that now..
Rock bottom here we come.
More malt bly..

[BTO780]

Crap insurance canola price $18.82
Local elevator crooks price $15.71 Dec.

My math tells me to put the seed in the tank and farm for da program.

[fjlip]

This is accurate...
"No no one can accurately explain it. The market is too big and too complex. It is going down at the moment because there are more sellers than buyers. Not being a wise guy, it’s just what markets do when the commodity being traded is available to anyone and their brother to gamble on. Unlimited bets. Markets are the net thoughts of all its participants at any nano second in time."

Traders make money on CHANGE in prices, not like producer and end-user.

[Grahamp]

The spread between SCIC and the actual price is going to make things very interesting, especially if price keeps dropping. Say if we have a $14 canola this fall and the SCIC is $18.82 and the producer is 40 canola average and they insure at 80% so 32. They grow a 32 and gross $448 I’m guessing on rented land with say $1000N which is roughly the midpoint on N this year, that there is not one producer in Saskatchewan with a cost of production that low. It is easy to look at SCIC numbers and think, “(I am insured for $602 (32*18.82)) but you are not. You’re insured for 32 bushels of production regardless of price and below that you are covered at $18.82 per bushel.

[furrowtickler]

2004 was a good example , everything froze , bushels were just above crop insurance, feed price was dismal . Never got a dime from crop insurance and lost big time .
Was worse than 2001-02 droughts .
It can happen
Even with crop insurance your still at the whim of Mother Nature

[TOM4CWB]

I was told Australian canola was now being imported into Canadian crushers… the further drop in black oil has magnified canola declines….

Canola can rally 100$/t just as fast as it dropped…. When the weather risk volatility becomes a factor again.

Cheers

[Old Cowzilla]

Was given only one day this week to haul canola ( MONDAY ) steady lineup at elevator. Couldn't help but notice it was going in one door and out the other via line of trucks going straight to crushers. Crusher margins still good but maybe inventory is getting tight. Or just worried trucks will be short come fert season I don't know.

[crusher]

Canola up nearly $20/t from its lows. I hope that's the beginning. I'm not smart enough to calculate the number of tonnes left on the prairies times $100, but I'm thinking its a big number.

[Partners]

Nobody forward pricing for the fall.
Wonder how long before crushers get a bit worried?
$15.20 today for sept..
Yr ago it was 18.50.for sept..