What would you do?

[Sheepwheat]

Good luck to all
Not long ago canola was $10 and wheat $5
Inputs , parts and machinery doubled or more since .
$200 / ac in an area that has seen 3 years drought and sitting with zero subsoil moisture… something is incredibly out of touch

6 bus / ac lentils and 10 bus canola don’t even scratch inputs let alone rent .
Something else at play , $200 rent is suicidal

Quadruple those yields. Does it work even then?

[furrowtickler]

Good luck to all
Not long ago canola was $10 and wheat $5
Inputs , parts and machinery doubled or more since .
$200 / ac in an area that has seen 3 years drought and sitting with zero subsoil moisture… something is incredibly out of touch

6 bus / ac lentils and 10 bus canola don’t even scratch inputs let alone rent .
Something else at play , $200 rent is suicidal

[ajl]

Any proof this actually happened? Cash up front? If not, the landlord should be aware that they won't be getting all that. Last payment due on final year doesn't get paid. Is there grain storage or other items such as a sheds in the lease? Always hear wild rumors but the details are always less than the headlines. Last 2 land auctions I saw on Clhbid (one in SK and other in MB) there were a number of parcels that just got one bid. Wonder how much above market they were. Same happened to us when we bought our current place. Made a text offer under ask and ten minutes later owned the place. Obviously the offer was too high. The trouble with headlines like this is that it fuels the rumor mill.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Renting isn't going anywhere soon unless the tax regime get's onerous for non farming owners.

I'm 100% in favour of using the tax code to encourage land ownership by those who make their living off the land.

[blackpowder]

Area specific perhaps.
I know of a few landlords here who got around $200 based on their crop share deals.
My landlords all raised the cash some. May have to discuss one's idea on share because he's asked. I don't see rents going down until the price of pickups or houses in town do too.
Renting isn't going anywhere soon unless the tax regime get's onerous for non farming owners.

[shtferbrains]

Near 200k for renting 6 quarters.

That will clean up a lot of sunsetters.
Might bring more land to market but will be a small group of renters?
Only takes 2.

A gamechanger.

[blackpowder]

Most of the neighbors I lost in the 80s and 90s were too small to survive the margins. Most did not go bankrupt here.
There was an exponential jump in economy of scale. Of course interest rates didn't help anyone. Perhaps I'm splitting hairs between insolvency and bankruptcy.
We might be approaching a similar. I don't know. My bank friend says most operations may mismanage debt but still have high equity. Most of the time iron addiction a factor in problems.
We never had idle acres here at the time. Won't this time either. I only see rents plateauing. Still a fair amount of low cost land leveraging expansion. Operating costs will go down, eventually....
I likely won't be at it long enough to see it go down by much. No bets on 10 years out.
Supply demand still functioning.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

What would I do? I wouldn't judge someone in a completely different area, in a completely different climate growing mostly different crops, who possibly has more insights into potential inflation going forward.

Then, I will be glad that no one has decided that renting land out here in the cold wet swamp is worth nearly as much, yet.

[tubs]

I hope they can make money at that because if that is the case I will makes tonnes of cash. I don't like all that extra anymore maybe we all be better off if we do a little less.

[zeefarmer]

$20 canola @ 50
$30 lentils @ 30
$30 chickpeas @ 30
$14 durum @ 50

Math is quite simple actually.

Average yields are:

35 canola
30 lentils (but can hardly grow them because of aphanomyces)
0 (can't grow chickpeas because of elevation and moisture. Some have tried and have gotten green chickpeas at best)
40-45 durum