USDA Report

[Landdownunder]

Bullish corn beans.

Neutral to bearish wheat?

No winter kill issues in US wheat or unseasonable heat issues in EU crops referring to wheat.

Wheats gonna be a grind this year.

[fjlip]

other opinions...

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Thursday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, soybeans and wheat. He pegged the world ending stocks estimates from USDA as slightly bullish for corn, slightly bearish for soybeans and neutral for wheat.

[furrowtickler]

Will be interesting to see come April on winter wheat . A big area of that wheat was not dormant when the freeze hit hard .
Has nine lives though , always seems to make er

[Landdownunder]

Bullish case as furrow mentioned winterkill.

Argie?

Elnino drought for Oz but good for northern hemisphere but markets would not bat a eyelid drought in oz after huge 22/23

That putin fella and what he may or may not do.

And demand construction needed somehow. Be that in china or india?

Trader mentioned the other day that with great foward prices on offer during growing season and start of harvest the OZ crop is basically 80% sold except in WA growers reluctant sellers and alot of mid protien wheat but not paying for protien now anyway. WA had huge huge crop so that 80% might only be 65% in reality. Foward sales worked a treat for me this year.

Ah memoiries if we had the ole single desk/AWB they would have 20% sold but but but "we have a structured selling programme" and would still have 40% of last years crops they just would cope in this day and age

[Rareearth]

Sarcasm “ record production set for 2023 production year” ( crop isn't seeded yet) but wait we will here these reports soon.

Fyi, i might change my handle from rareearth to “Mr.” it would be awesome to be identified that way( or maybe its just too traditional?

Demand:
- this is where export sales reporting is required for farmers to make informed decisions
- risk management
- every farmer that has sold a inventories, has done so for cash flow, etc. Now what to do with the rest of the inventory
1. Sell now?
2. Wait for road bans - then sell and deliver.
3. Sell and deliver at seeding time when trucks are full of fertilizer, and there is no time to haul
4. Summer is busy spraying, getting combines ready,
5. Fu.. it hired man quit, no one to hire, Carry it over to new crop, sell in Oct ?

One element I haven’t seen mention for years now is global population growth (= demand)
- 20 years ago world population was 7 billion people
- we just passed 8 billion people a month ago

Roughly 14% increase

Are we still on track for 10 billion people by 2050?
I think this is the demand no one is talking about.
Yes demand shifts in various commodities and countries year over year, everything is a cycle but the big picture population trend has been forgotten. ( personally i don't think 10 billion will happen)

[farmboy44]

Are we still on track for 10 billion people by 2050?



[ATTACH]11764[/ATTACH]

If we reach 10B I think thatll be the peak. We may not even get there before things start moving backwards.

[TASFarms]

Why did it take so long for the harvested acres to be reduced in corn? Corn crop has a lot more shrinking to do.

[tubs]

If we reach 10B I think thatll be the peak. We may not even get there before things start moving backwards.

Planet earth will never reach population of 10 billion

[flea beetle]

Planet earth will never reach population of 10 billion

For sure not if bill gates et al are left unchecked.

[Rareearth]

I made a comment above how i would like to be identified.

That comment was in response to all the others that wish to be identified as,
He she
Him her
He him
Etc

I guess I'm a traditionalist. This should be under Sask farmers friday cocktail

[farmboy44]

Planet earth will never reach population of 10 billion

Chinas population declined for the first time in 62 years in 2022.

[furrowtickler]

And yet wheat market continues downward .

[flea beetle]

And yet wheat market continues downward .

Wheat will pop, just gonna take a catalyst.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Wheat will pop, just gonna take a catylist.

I think that catalyst will be the ongoing conflict in ukraine. It won't be overnight like last time, it will be the slow realization that the situation is not progressing the way the Western propaganda has led us to believe.
The market has been lulled into believing that the conflict is almost over, and Ukraine will prevail. The reality on the ground seems to indicate the opposite is true. The market has essentially removed all of the war premium. I expect it all to be built back in, but more stealthily this time.

[Landdownunder]

one could argue Putin thought of a swift victory that aint happening either

a drawn out long conflict sadly at the end the ukraine and russian people the losers