Thoughts on Land Price Direction

[flea beetle]

Where do you see land prices going from here? Higher interest rates seem to be starting to do their job on asset values, but the horns haven't completely retracted on the bulls out there.

One neighbour who has had his quarter for "sale" for about 5-6 years way above market price brought it down from $640,000 to $450,000 last year. It didn't sell. So figured I would give him a call and see if anything had changed. Still at $450,000. Keep in mind there is about 80 acres of grain land basically all on a side hill, then it flattens out and there is about 40 acres of half assed pasture, and then 40 acres of alkaline pasture that doesn't really produce because it is alkaline creek bottom. Told him about some recent sales of grain land in the area lower than what he is asking, and he responded that he has had 2 other guys phone recently as well. Pretty much said he isn't moving on price.

This is touching my home quarter, but I just don't see myself paying that kind of money for basically half a quarter of paying land, and half a quarter that might support 15 pairs. More likely 10-12.

What is everyone seeing in their area? Have the recent rate increases slowed things down from moving yet? Or still business as usual?

[SASKFARMER]

No sales are still going higher. Our area has very few sellers so when someone sells if they advertise it they get paid way more than just letting one guy have it. We were cheap compared to other areas due to no sellers for years. If 300 to 600 is tops and we do get a correction it will be 150 to 300.

[Old Cowzilla]

Land speculators still buying the odd single 1/4 and spend the 1st year cleaning up old building sites,drainage,fence lines ,etc. etc. Then rent to up and coming young pup for good money who should have bought it in the first place. Bigger land sales pushed by Huts, Amish, Dairy, and BTO's so don't see any slowdown coming soon. Super sized hog barns being built north of us now to feed hog processing plants to the west. We are turning into a ( little Winkler )

[Sheepwheat]

I’m curious what happens when all the bigger guys have finally eaten the smaller guys and there is no land left to change hands? What then? It’s getting close to that now. How do you value something that never sells?

[Goodtime]

Land prices keep jumping in this area and rent is following suit, many guys buying are not fly by night outfits, good cash flow, good operators, family coming home to farm and are needing to expand to carry several families.

[Old Cowzilla]

4 farms where sold to 20 amish guys here a few years ago so maybe the little guys are buying out the bigger guys.

[BTO780]

$19 canola, .50 lentils, .55 chickpeas, wheat, durum, and barley are filler crops. At these prices land prices will continue where they are or move higher.

Was told by an accountant one BTO outfit is after all they can get.

High interest rates, inputs, or machinery don’t seem to scare these guys.

I hope prices keep going, just means things may change for me sooner than expected .. nothing wrong with that.

[blackpowder]

If it's touching your home quarter and you can swing it. You have to.

[wrongway]

buy it...never know what kind of neighbour you may end up with especially since its by your home

[quadtrac]

Agee with the two above.
it’s touching your home 1/4 I’m surprised you’re waiting.
For what???
You will 100% regret it if someone else gets it. Maybe not right away but for sure in time it’ll be a mistake not jumping on it.

[mcfarms]

What's the legal, I need a place to grow pot, raise free range pitbulls and store my large collection of unused 3 tons.

Or you sit down pencil the value of the land reasonably and defendably in a negotiation, add a premium for the proximity and shutting out the nightmare potential (me) and politely approach him and give him your number and a decent time to say yes or no. If you don't get it you tried, if you get it and it won't break you you'll be happy always you got it

Land at this point doesn't have any reason to go down, still guys with the farming machine running well and that machine dictates investing in dirt if they are running it wisely unless something drastic happens it's going up albeit slower imo than the last few years ,for a while yet.

[Rinker]

Unless there was no possible way for me to afford it I would not let a quarter beside my yard go.

Can that pasture be broke?

[shtferbrains]

McFarms if your going to have pit bulls and pot you need some kind of old tow truck to drag old cars in to fill the yard so no one notices all the old beaters sitting in your yard purchasing product.

Seems to work around here.
My neighbors all keep nice yards but I used to bale across from one of those.
Interesting on Friday evening.

[Sheepwheat]

450 000/80=?

Can you use the pasture for the bison? Is the poor pasture at all remotely fixable? Is the half bleep pasture able to become better than it is? Is there soil problems? Sounds like salinity in pasture.

It would be hard to let it go, but it doesn’t sound like a real stellar quarter, touching your home quarter or not. At least you are pondering it and not being automatic about it. Obviously if it was productive enough you would bite.

Without seeing it and knowing the layout, knowing the land, none of us should arbitrarily say buy it no matter what.

[blackpowder]

What's the legal, I need a place to grow pot, raise free range pitbulls and store my large collection of unused 3 tons.

Or you sit down pencil the value of the land reasonably and defendably in a negotiation, add a premium for the proximity and shutting out the nightmare potential (me) and politely approach him and give him your number and a decent time to say yes or no. If you don't get it you tried, if you get it and it won't break you you'll be happy always you got it

Land at this point doesn't have any reason to go down, still guys with the farming machine running well and that machine dictates investing in dirt if they are running it wisely unless something drastic happens it's going up albeit slower imo than the last few years ,for a while yet.

Sorry for taking up the extra space.
But I couldn't triple like the first paragraph. So real. If it ain't yet it will be. Wake up.