Thoughts on Land Price Direction

[FarmJunkie]

Jazz he says Chinas done in a few years so that canola market definitely could dry up.

[biglentil]

Farmland has had quite a run, dare I say gone parabolic. Would I go into debt in this rising interest rate market nope, but would I sell and hold dollars, nope.

[Old Cowzilla]

My son and I bought an adjoining 1/4 last year old yard site pasture and or grain. It needs some work to clean up but that's part of my retirement projects. There was some small parcels next to it (village site long time ago ) that I wanted. Was able to snap up 2 of the 3 pieces but missed the trigger on the 3rd. There's now a 1972 motorhome ( dragged in ) for a living res. on the 3rd. Winning !!!!

[flea beetle]

So what is everyone’s opinion on where we are at based on the 1980’s? Are we even anywhere near having a similar type of event? Are we in a situation that will play out worse than that timeframe? Are we in the 70’s still, and have a few years before we have to start worrying?

Personally I feel we are on the crest, and headed over the downslope. Just not sure if it is a small gully, or a cliff.🤣 Not going to sit still in fear and do nothing, but want to look over my shoulder cautiously as well.

[TASFarms]

So what is everyone’s opinion on where we are at based on the 1980’s? Are we even anywhere near having a similar type of event? Are we in a situation that will play out worse than that timeframe? Are we in the 70’s still, and have a few years before we have to start worrying?

Personally I feel we are on the crest, and headed over the downslope. Just not sure if it is a small gully, or a cliff.🤣 Not going to sit still in fear and do nothing, but want to look over my shoulder cautiously as well.

You will have a better idea when 1 bank crashes.

[cropgrower]

well i seen back in 08 land droped 50% overnight in ireland , now its up to around of 75% of where it was before 08 crash , we moved here in 2006 and the increase in land value here from then to now has been huge and has turned out to be a great investment ,however after seeing what happened in ireland i never buy the opinion that land stays going up , would not take much to pop the bubble here now i think

[Rinker]

well i seen back in 08 land droped 50% overnight in ireland , now its up to around of 75% of where it was before 08 crash , we moved here in 2006 and the increase in land value here from then to now has been huge and has turned out to be a great investment ,however after seeing what happened in ireland i never buy the opinion that land stays going up , would not take much to pop the bubble here now i think

Did the cash rent drop 50% as well?

[cropgrower]

i would not think their was a huge change in rent as far as i remember , banks pretty much stopped giving loans , but their was almost no land on market (who wants to sell for half ?) except what had been repossed by banks , some farmers bought back their farms for less than half too! their was huge winners and losers when the smoke cleared

[Sheepwheat]

In the 80’s it was interest rates, and interest rates alone that caused mayhem.

Now? There are many things that imho will cause mayhem.

Iron and the wants or needs to have the latest and greatest. In the 80’s, guys made do. Now?

Extreme expenses. My dads 80’s income tax says it cost him maybe forty bucks to grow a crop, all in.

Extreme land values. Values that are inflated far above farming actually paying for it in most cases, unless one is exceptionally fortunate.

Extreme rent rates.

Summerfallow. Like it or not, it DOES store moisture and releases nutrients. Everyone summerfallowed some in the 80’s. It got guys through with zero inputs in a pinch.

Diversity of farms. In the 80’s, hardly anyone had straight grain. The diversity helped many through those dark years. This includes cows, pork, and a lot of farms still grew a lot of their own food.

In the 80’s, there were western grain stabilization payments and ad hoc payments guys who didn’t need it still received.

In the 80’s, many, many farmers were making more in interest than they were farming. The careful and dare I say the wise, made out like bandits. A far too often overlooked fact in an era when 20 000 was a pretty fair net income.

That’s just a very few differences from now and then.

[fcr]

In the eighties BTO,s who outbid for land then could not make payments cried to the gov,t about banks repo their land, so the farm debt review board was set up.Lenders were forced to negotiate, mostly for half of origanal loan.Pure crap.