Thoughts on Land Price Direction

[jazz]

Exactly. But just once I wish someone would share on here the secret, very special pencil, using specific numbers that show farming can buy land at these values. But no one actually can.

Sheep, usually expansions are funded by older land holdings until they can make it on their own. At least thats the thinking. In practice who knows. But land doesnt come up very often so you can understand the temptation to stretch for it.

[TSIPP]

Exactly. But just once I wish someone would share on here the secret, very special pencil, using specific numbers that show farming can buy land at these values. But no one actually can.

One of my kids wants to start ranching, pencilling out the viability of ranching looks really bad on paper, I’m not trying that again.

[poorboy]

Its not just the price of land going up, the package size of the land keeps getting bigger. Not many quarters sold any more, it is 800 ac or larger parcels.

These larger land sales give the edge to the bigger farms.

[Rinker]

I don't think I'd need to bring the pencil out to figure this one out....

[Old Cowzilla]

I don't think I'd need to bring the pencil out to figure this one out....

See still need the cows for it to pencil out !!!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Exactly. But just once I wish someone would share on here the secret, very special pencil, using specific numbers that show farming can buy land at these values. But no one actually can.

Our pencil was sharpened during BSE. Then, as we switched to more grain acres, the pencil got even sharper by back to back to back floods and hail and snow. Have finally had a few consecutive years without a complete catastrophe( unless of course you consider having most of the crop out over winter, 2 consecutive pre harvest hail storms, epic June rains, and record breaking droughts to be catastrophic...), I refuse to quit using the same pencil that got us this far. Same bare minimum of equipment, same bare necessities of inputs, still budgeting assuming crop prices going back to half these values, along with a complete crop loss. All the while, buying land with the profits from farming the land. I started out buying land entirely with off farm income, but when I tried going back to work 10 years ago, I quickly realized that off farm wages are now a drop in the bucket compared to land costs, and that ship has passed.
I believe that equipment and infrastructure are the cause of most farmers downfall, not the productive assets. But it sure looks like a lot of fun while it lasts.