Markets …. WOWZERS!!!

[BTO780]

Markets have gone completely in the toilet. How much lower can they go? Costs are sky high, doesn’t look good going forward.
There was so much hype where prices would go through the roof with the war in Ukraine, that hasn’t happened.
In fact, there has been a huge amount exported out the Black Sea.
Tough yr ahead IMO!!

[TOM4CWB]

Volatility is not going away…

One mountain pass east of LA… had 93” of snow…. Another whopper Storm ⛈ in California over the next 2 days….

Water reservoirs in areas will be full by spring… massive snow packs in the sierras…

Oroville Dam could easily be using that new spill way this spring!



Cheers

[BTO780]

Volatility is not going away…

One mountain pass east of LA… had 93” of snow…. Another whopper Storm ⛈ in California over the next 2 days….

Water reservoirs in areas will be full by spring… massive snow packs in the sierras…

Oroville Dam could easily be using that new spill way this spring!



Cheers

Not sure what this has to do with the tumbling markets?

Guess there’s something you know I don’t.

Are these storms brining moisture to the dry areas of Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska?
These areas are bone dry with terrible crop ratings.

[ajl]

Just the combination of that deflation that Errol has been warning about along with the war grinding down in Ukraine. The reckless covid inflation tsunami is now washing back out to sea. Look out below. Input costs are also grudgingly moving lower. I bought some gly at Christmas time but could get it cheaper today. Fert is lower today than the stuff put in bins last fall and farm machinery prices will move lower as well.

[Taiga]

Lots of nearly new pickups and semi trucks showing up for sale now, this will pick up steam and accelerate I think. Impending CEBA payback for money they don’t have for some as well.

[TOM4CWB]

Not sure what this has to do with the tumbling markets?

Guess there’s something you know I don’t.

Are these storms brining moisture to the dry areas of Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska?
These areas are bone dry with terrible crop ratings.

California is one of the most productive agricultural regions in North America.

On top…The return of huge amounts of precipitation…. Is pumping rainfall right across North America.



Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

California is one of the most productive agricultural regions in North America.

On top…The return of huge amounts of precipitation…. Is pumping rainfall right across North America.



Cheers

Nice moisture!


Blessings

[Rareearth]

Lake Mead and Lake Powel levelsand inceased inflows expected from the Colorado river system?

[jdg364]

There was so much hype where prices would go through the roof with the war in Ukraine, that hasn’t happened.

BTO.. I don’t know if that’s true. The Russian invasion just passed the one year anniversary. In that time farmers were able to sell some 2021 and 2022 cnl crop for $25/bu which is amazing. Sell cwrs at $12-15 and feed barley for $8-10. Some of that was due to covid/inflation, drought in western cad / globally and the Russian war.

High prices cure high prices and maybe the new norm will be $18 cnl and $10 cwrs?? Im guessing lower. For the people who have borrowed a whole bunch the past couple years, hopefully they have their house in order.

[SmallTimeOperator]

A few years ago $14 canola and $7 wheat were damn good prices. There is a saying that the old top becomes the new bottom. Cross your fingers that that old top holds strong and becomes the new bottom. Some farms tied into high rents and shiny equipment, won’t survive when we get back to those prices.

[Austrian Economics]

Higher interest rates are having a gradual impact on the economy, especially on the housing sector. Credit distress is growing. As for ag, higher rates have been counterbalanced by firm commodity prices. Farmers are still largely able to afford new equipment despite skyrocketing prices for it. Manufacturers I have talked to say they still cannot keep up with demand. If the war in the Ukraine ended tomorrow, we would probably see a big drop in commodity prices, but it seems the war still has a long way to go.

[shtferbrains]

The Black Sea grain export agreement come up for renegotiating on March 18.
Russia will be blustering about not renewing it for the interm.
Might have some push on price.

[furrowtickler]

Higher interest rates are having a gradual impact on the economy, especially on the housing sector. Credit distress is growing. As for ag, higher rates have been counterbalanced by firm commodity prices. Farmers are still largely able to afford new equipment despite skyrocketing prices for it. Manufacturers I have talked to say they still cannot keep up with demand. If the war in the Ukraine ended tomorrow, we would probably see a big drop in commodity prices, but it seems the war still has a long way to go.

Agree , but production at manufacturers still way below long term , so kinda false positive.
Housing plummeting as we speak .
The under 35 crowd in deep trouble right now , inflation and interest rates crushing them and starting to hit the 40-60 crowd .
Consumer spending brakes getting applied big time right now .
Dodge trucks $15000 off with 1/2 interest rates offered …. Still not selling much .
Even GM lots filling up now , some pre sales but new are non existent unless cash . $110,000 for a truck at high interest rates is a fantastic way to lose money fast that the majority don’t have .
Disposable income in the middle class has evaporated the past 8 months

[fcr]

Wheat 11.15. Canola 17.98. Today at local RP. Do we ride it out and hope for a spring rally.Starting to think maybe missed the boat , thoughts

[Marusko]

Wheat 11.15. Canola 17.98. Today at local RP. Do we ride it out and hope for a spring rally.Starting to think maybe missed the boat , thoughts

sold my canola. It's so hard to say. i feel like there is upside in the wheat b/c russia has been pumping out wheat and i feel like that's going to get disrupted at some point before new crop. March 18 being the next important date.

that said if everyone's fearful that's usually when most are selling, and soon it runs around...?? ? so hard to say.