Banking failure

[ajl]

Big story in 1930 was the large 1928 wheat crop. Farmers were determined not to take less than $1 per bushel and the pools were holding inventory while the market was around 0.70. In the early 80's wheat prices fell from around $5 to $3.50 in 1982. Holding inventory in the face of mounting debt. In these scenarios debt needs to be paid now. The assumption is that gubmints are foolish enough to go full zimbabwe but then the billionaires become poor and the arms dealers will not be happy and gubmints can't fight foreign wars.

[shtferbrains]

I am far far more concerned with the 40% crash in canola price than bank’s failure in Canada right now . We are getting completely fleeced

From Trading Economics:

"Canola futures fell to below CAD 700 per tonne, the lowest in four months due to reduced domestic consumption and exports. Total domestic use is set to fall 4% in the 2023-24 season due to constrained domestic supplies, even as processing capacity is expanding. On top of that, exports are expected to decline to 7.7 million tonnes due to tight Canadian stocks and ample global supplies. Meanwhile, canola production in Canada is estimated at 17.4 million tonnes, a 7% decrease from the previous year due to drier growing conditions. Yields are expected to be 1.96 tonnes per hectare, the lowest in a decade. . Historically, Canola reached an all time high of 1226 in May of 2022. Canola refers to edible oil which recently is also used to produce biodiesel. The biggest producers of canola seeds are: European Union, Canada, China, India and Australia. Canola futures are mostly traded on ICE Futures Canada."


Lots of use of the word "lowest".

Unusual to see it as a reason for lower prices.

[blackpowder]

Big story in 1930 was the large 1928 wheat crop. Farmers were determined not to take less than $1 per bushel and the pools were holding inventory while the market was around 0.70. In the early 80's wheat prices fell from around $5 to $3.50 in 1982. Holding inventory in the face of mounting debt. In these scenarios debt needs to be paid now. The assumption is that gubmints are foolish enough to go full zimbabwe but then the billionaires become poor and the arms dealers will not be happy and gubmints can't fight foreign wars.

I was going to disagree with you on a few points. Until I looked out in the yard at all my naked wheat. Food for thought.

[errolanderson]

Realize unpopular opinion, but cash is king (IMO) and has been for some time already.

Economic reality sucks for investors conditioned to ‘buy the dip’ fueled by central bank manipulation. In this economic downturn, there may be lots of time to ‘buy the valley’. Gig is-up for banks. Debt crisis bites.

Credit markets reeling, impacting commodities, including canola. Banks now shrinking . . . .

[errolanderson]

Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Bank of America from stable to negative rating this week.

It is definitely hitting the fan . . . .

[fcr]

Attended a marketing mtg yesterday. All bad except lentils. Talk was $12 canola and $8 wheat. Lots of everything in the the world pipeline and slow demand. The message was the world has figured out they can buy the commodities we produce closer to home for less.If it wasn’t for the US market we would be in a heap of trouble. Brazil still a wild card but rain is forecast this weekend.

[bucket]

Did China pickup up 2mmt of durum and no one knows about it until after the fact in Canada? Rumor or fact?

If so maybe the board of the checkoff funds shouldn't be taking trips , they should be implementing export sales reporting.

[BTO780]

Did China pickup up 2mmt of durum and no one knows about it until after the fact in Canada? Rumor or fact?

If so maybe the board of the checkoff funds shouldn't be taking trips , they should be implementing export sales reporting.

Everyone should ask for their check-offs back so they can’t take juicy trips and spend our money.
I got mine back this past wk.
Maybe I will take “my” money and enjoy something.

[wrongway]

marketing meetings including a "free" lunch always have an agenda that may or may not be immediately obvious...here the message seems to be "quick sell us your grain before the price gets even worse". fear is just one emotion used in sales, another is greed.

i'm not saying that the message is wrong but selling the world is ending is easier than selling everything will be ok.

[TASFarms]

Did China pickup up 2mmt of durum and no one knows about it until after the fact in Canada? Rumor or fact?

If so maybe the board of the checkoff funds shouldn't be taking trips , they should be implementing export sales reporting.

You know it’s priced to cheap if China is buying it